NEG NAO Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 where is the snowfall contest here ? The last one was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: where is the snowfall contest here ? The last one was fun Start it up but it hard forecast right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Summary: 2/20 06z Total QPF NAM: RGEM: ICON: UKMET (60H) GFS AI AIGFS: GFS EURO AI AIFS: GEFS (24 H) Mean Total QPF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 FWIW Nam has today’s system move east faster than 6z hopefully that helps with the separation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I would tame expectations the dual low needs to be watched could it be the gfs is about to cave come 12z? Been there for many runs now. Cave to what exactly? Every model and ensemble is more similar to GFS now except Euro OP. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Jt17 said: Been there for many runs now. Cave to what exactly? Every model and ensemble is more similar to GFS now except Euro OP. . Or it could just be a double barrel low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Or it could just be a double barrel low Exactly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 regardless of what happens in the next couple of days, this is one of the most spectacular model shifts for the better I have seen at this range in a long time. let's reel this one in 9 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Nam is looking good so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM is cooking with gas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Lots of energy being depicted on this run. Giggity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: regardless of what happens in the next couple of days, this is one of the most spectacular model shifts for the better I have seen at this range in a long time. let's reel this one in IF the snowiest - à la GFS - solutions verify, it would almost be akin to Boxing Day 2010 when all hope was lost a few days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Ridge axis is further west on the NAM but the trough is also a bit broader. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, mob1 said: Ridge axis is further west on the NAM but the trough is also a bit broader. Precip further north on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, MJO812 said: Precip further north on the nam Backside energy is sharpening the trough quickly at 54, looks decent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 42 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I'd argue that the NAM at the end of its range shouldn't be used to inform snowfall forecasts. Also most of the 6Z models showed decent increases in snowfall for this subforum and the immediate NYC metro, as per below. Based on the models and the NWS forecast of 6.5" for CPK assuming they'd follow the NBM through 1 pm Monday as per my other post, I'd maybe say 4-8" is a better call for NYC Metro, although I an also see 3-6" being a good starting point with the high uncertainty and huge range we have over the models, as per the NWS 10% low and high cases being <1" for CPK to ~10" for CPK Just my thoughts. 6Z ICON shows 6-12" for NYC metro and 9" for CPK (big increase from 0Z) 6Z GFS shows 12-18" for NYC metro with 15" for CPK (decent increase from 0Z) 6Z AIGFS shows 10-14" for NYC metro and 12" for CPK (a big increase from 0Z) 6Z Euro-AIFS shows 4-6" for NYC metro with 5.5" for CPK (same as 0Z) 6Z Euro shows 3-5" for NYC metro and 3.1" for CPK (a bit of a decrease from 0Z) 7Z NBM shows 6-8" for NYC metro and 7.8" for CPK (slightly more than 01Z). The 0Z CMC/UK both only showed 2-3" for NYC, but I'd argue these are outdated We agree about the NAM. I mentioned it just for purposes of reference. I give it very little weight at this timeframe and I'm looking forward to its retirement. I started somewhat conservatively, as there is enormous spread among the guidance and among the NBM's 25th/75th percentiles and 10th/90th percentiles. Hopefully, the spread will be smaller after the 12z and 18z cycles. I'll revisit the numbers late in the day. Finally, as you note, 4"-8" might also be a better initial call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Nam might be good, great trend from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 This looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12z NAM very similar to GFS at 500mb...this run may explode shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 HR 63 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 No matter what the final solution shows, the NAM took a big step towards the GFS which is what we want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Nammy making some really nice moves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Tucked in, folks do we have a nam bomb brewing???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said: HR 63 really goes negative here, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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