Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[LeesburgWx]

36 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Twice! 

Sign of the times

[AlexD1990]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty sure he just got an AI to modify the Jan 2016 blizzard map. Dont blame him, blame the machines. They’re gonna vex your locale and turn the snow drifts to puddles 

Ugh. I look at that storm the way most look at boxing day, or even something like today's storm. Goes to show how different impacts can be around here.

3 hours ago, bncho said:

Of course not, man! I'm more than content with my 4". But ChatGPT might be a little bit mad.

Well considering it's a souless POS that is actively destroying our planet and contributing to the collective dumbing down of our society, it can be mad with me idgaf lol...but maybe I digress 

[CAPE]

A chance for something here-

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

[Ji]

Alright somebody give me some good news about the Niño next year. [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] where did you see early indications of it being east-based?
I will say this: If we do not get a MECS or HECS next year, we are probably waiting until the end of the decade when the next niño comes unless we can get a double-dip, no?

Psu never said east. He said Canadian showed modoki

[Chris78]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright somebody give me some good news about the Niño next year. @psuhoffman where did you see early indications of it being east-based?

I will say this: If we do not get a MECS or HECS next year, we are probably waiting until the end of the decade when the next niño comes unless we can get a double-dip, no?

Do you feel confident in getting atleast a MECS next year in a Nino?

 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright somebody give me some good news about the Niño next year. @psuhoffman where did you see early indications of it being east-based?

I will say this: If we do not get a MECS or HECS next year, we are probably waiting until the end of the decade when the next niño comes unless we can get a double-dip, no?

What makes you think we should get an HECS next year? Just because a Nino looks likely? And no one knows what the character of it will be at this juncture. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright somebody give me some good news about the Niño next year. @psuhoffman where did you see early indications of it being east-based?

I will say this: If we do not get a MECS or HECS next year, we are probably waiting until the end of the decade when the next niño comes unless we can get a double-dip, no?

I dont want to burst your bubble, but we just had a Nino 2 years ago and we were barely able to record a below freezing overnight low.  I think I got like 2".  

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I dont want to burst your bubble, but we just had a Nino 2 years ago and we were barely able to record a below freezing overnight low.  I think I got like 2".  

We suck at snow these days no matter wether it's a Nino or Nina.

I don't think turning on a Nino is going to automatically fix that lol

 

 

[Terpeast]

While an el nino makes miller a coastal storms that drop copious amounts of qpf over us more likely due to a more active STJ, it is no guarantee we get a MECS+. It could just be rain, like 97-98. We could get nothing, like 72-73. Or we might just get a couple of NS systems and the rest is torch, like 23-24.

It does increase our chances, but we need cold air, blocking, and polar jet and all the ingredients. Active STJ is only one of many ingredients. 

[Ji]

What makes you think we should get an HECS next year? Just because a Nino looks likely? And no one knows what the character of it will be at this juncture. 

We will get one. No doubt

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What makes you think we should get an HECS next year? Just because a Nino looks likely? And no one knows what the character of it will be at this juncture. 

 

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I dont want to burst your bubble, but we just had a Nino 2 years ago and we were barely able to record a below freezing overnight low.  I think I got like 2".  

I never said it was a given. I'm just saying we need to get one next year or else we will be waiting for awhile longer.

@EastCoast NPZ Yes I'm aware. But I'm hoping an easing of the PDO and Chill's theory of blocking episodes coming around after a long hiatus has some merit. And again, nothing is guaranteed. But no matter what, a strong enough Niño still gives us our best chance of all the enso states, so we root for it.

@CAPE Psu said something a few weeks ago about early indications of east based, but I don't know where he saw that.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

While an el nino makes miller a coastal storms that drop copious amounts of qpf over us more likely due to a more active STJ, it is no guarantee we get a MECS+. It could just be rain, like 97-98. We could get nothing, like 72-73. Or we might just get a couple of NS systems and the rest is torch, like 23-24.

It does increase our chances, but we need cold air, blocking, and polar jet and all the ingredients. Active STJ is only one of many ingredients. 

Absolutely agree. We've seen the ways a niño can fail. But obviously, no other enso state is gonna work for a MECS or HECS anymore so it's all we got, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Do you feel confident in getting atleast a MECS next year in a Nino?

 

Confident that it's our best chance, yes. Confident it's definitely gonna happen? Nobody can be, lol But as I stated above...easing PDO, maybe more blocking, better chance? We shall see...

[Cobalt]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

While an el nino makes miller a coastal storms that drop copious amounts of qpf over us more likely due to a more active STJ, it is no guarantee we get a MECS+. It could just be rain, like 97-98. We could get nothing, like 72-73. Or we might just get a couple of NS systems and the rest is torch, like 23-24.

It does increase our chances, but we need cold air, blocking, and polar jet and all the ingredients. Active STJ is only one of many ingredients. 

I would imagine that, so long as we don't get a Super Nino, the prospect of any Nino raises the floor of winter at least? At least in the event of a warm winter. At DCA for instance, 40F+ winter average and La Nina are a no-go combo, the last 5 such cases averaged 4.4" of snow. 40F+ El Ninos are a different story, 2 of the last 3 exceeded climo, with 23-24 being the odd one out, though its snow total is pretty comparable to this year's despite being 8 degrees warmer lol. Again that's all in hoping that a Super Nino doesn't come in and wreck everything, anything weaker and it seems like we at least won't get nothingburgered. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I would imagine that, so long as we don't get a Super Nino, the prospect of any Nino raises the floor of winter at least? At least in the event of a warm winter. At DCA for instance, 40F+ winter average and La Nina are a no-go combo, the last 5 such cases averaged 4.4" of snow. 40F+ El Ninos are a different story, 2 of the last 3 exceeded climo, with 23-24 being the odd one out, though its snow total is pretty comparable to this year's despite being 8 degrees warmer lol. Again that's all in hoping that a Super Nino doesn't come in and wreck everything, anything weaker and it seems like we at least won't get nothingburgered. 

Yeah. If the PDO doesn’t take its annual nosedive this summer, we may have a shot at more +pna now that coastal storm tracks seem to be coming back, and we may also get more blocking up top. Couple that with storms (both tropical and midlatitude) getting more intense with more moisture than in the past, we may have an above normal shot at a MECS if the nino doesn’t go ape. I don’t think it will because the WWBs have been struggling and the SOI is still positive, and subsurface is only mildly AN. If this was gonna be a super, we’d already be seeing +6 subsurface with a negative SOI by now. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Absolutely agree. We've seen the ways a niño can fail. But obviously, no other enso state is gonna work for a MECS or HECS anymore so it's all we got, lol

We just missed a HECS a month ago.  Our best winter ever (out here) was a Nina.  A Nino is not the only path.  Although pretty much every path leads to failure here.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah. If the PDO doesn’t take its annual nosedive this summer, we may have a shot at more +pna now that coastal storm tracks seem to be coming back, and we may also get more blocking up top. Couple that with storms (both tropical and midlatitude) getting more intense with more moisture than in the past, we may have an above normal shot at a MECS if the nino doesn’t go ape. I don’t think it will because the WWBs have been struggling and the SOI is still positive, and subsurface is only mildly AN. If this was gonna be a super, we’d already be seeing +6 subsurface with a negative SOI by now. 

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength.  I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength.  I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

He lives in NM or something like that? East based is what he wants, I think

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We just missed a HECS a month ago.  Our best winter ever (out here) was a Nina.  A Nino is not the only path.  Although pretty much every path leads to failure here.

Yeah not the only path...but historically aside from the once in a generation 1996 (and 2006 for a MECS), haven't the rest of the top 10 snows come during Niños?

[jayyy]

We suck at snow these days no matter wether it's a Nino or Nina.
I don't think turning on a Nino is going to automatically fix that lol
 
 

That’s because we oversimplify everything to Niña versus niño. Strength and location matter. As do other factors like the PDO. Idk why some folks think every niño is an auto W and every Niña is a ratter. We’ve had great and horrific winters in both ENSO states. Early indications are that next year will likely be a niño. Hopefully it’s not east based. Otherwise it could be another downer season. Niño is def preferred over Niña historically, but it’s no guarantee

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

That’s because we oversimplify everything to Niña versus niño. Strength and location matter. As do other factors like the PDO. Idk why some folks think every niño is an auto W and every Niña is a ratter. We’ve had great and horrific winters in both ENSO states. Early indications are that next year will likely be a niño. Hopefully it’s eased based. Otherwise it could be another downer season.

East based isn’t always great for us. We’d prefer modoki or central basin

[jayyy]

East based isn’t always great for us. We’d prefer modoki or central basin

Thats what I meant! Hopefully it’s *not* east based. Thanks for the correction sir

[Heisy]

Just in time for April

[EastCoast NPZ]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah not the only path...but historically aside from the once in a generation 1996 (and 2006 for a MECS), haven't the rest of the top 10 snows come during Niños?

Idk about the rest, but certainly most.  But cold is usually an issue with ninos and in our current state that spells trouble.   

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Idk about the rest, but certainly most.  But cold is usually an issue with ninos and in our current state that spells trouble.   

Possibly...but we see we can still snow when it starts at 34 degrees if it's heavy enough.. I mean the coastal gets going sooner we would've had a foot even in a marginal setup. Have a strong storm like that in a Niño where it's in a better spot a boom. So I don't think we're that far gone yet. (at least I hope not!) All it takes is a window a la 2016. And even in 2018-19 there was ample cold in January where the rest of y'all south of me got a foot! (Ack, lol)

[jayyy]

Idk about the rest, but certainly most.  But cold is usually an issue with ninos and in our current state that spells trouble.   

If we can’t get cold enough anymore in any niño regime, our snowfall would cliff-dive over the coming decades. But I also think it’s more complex than that. We just went through a LONG stretch having a +NAO dominated pattern coupled with a VERY hostile -PDO.

We haven’t really had a true test of the “old days” since our last blockbuster season (2015). We have either had no blocking, a terrible PAC (thanks -PDO), etc. The beaches and everywhere north and south of us keep getting smacked, which is how we know it can still snow and snow a lot here. We’ve been insanely unlucky. Last year we JUST missed a huge storm. Two more this year. It’s almost like the snow gods are punishing us after the insane luck we had the decade prior to 16-26.

Idk. I’m no meteorologist or climatologist, but I’d bet the house that we have another blockbuster year sooner than later.