Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Euro AI ensemble. Some winners, some losers.

Lots of Tucked members off the coast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not worried about the euro, it’s been getting slapped around by its ai cousin from this range all winter.  I’m more just worried about the ai shifting this whole thing northeast as we get closer which of course could happen. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Your ratios must have been bigly! lol 

They were but...lol...euro totally missed the 14" we got the evening before...and then still was about .5 qpf too low for the second part.   It was a pretty epic fail of the euro at very short lead 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Not worried about the euro, it’s been getting slapped around by its ai cousin from this range all winter.  I’m more just worried about the ai shifting this whole thing northeast as we get closer which of course could happen. 

The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.

GEPS looks better at 12z too. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GEPS looks better at 12z too. 

Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.

The least ai can do for us accurately depict a miller b at 5 day lead before it eventually enslaves us and turns us into batteries.  

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The least ai can do for us accurately depict a miller b at 5 day lead before it eventually enslaves us and turns us into batteries.  

 

[Amped]

This storm has much higher heights ahead of it than last February's fish storm or this February's fish storm. Its going to be much harder to suppress.

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey @stormtracker I guess this potential storm is gonna be my thread...lol So Iet me know if/when ya deem it necessary to start one (perhaps if it's still there by Thursday 12z?). I have my doubts but I'll give it a shot 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Or everything else is "finding" a storm that isn't there… We shall see

You could be exactly right!  As you say, "we shall see"

[Solution Man]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey @stormtracker I guess this potential storm is gonna be my thread...lol So Iet me know if/when ya deem it necessary to start one (perhaps if it's still there by Thursday 12z?). I have my doubts but I'll give it a shot 

Here ya go   

[Maestrobjwa]

Ralph made a good point in tbe other sub...what some guidance shows today is something we've haven't seen all winter: A wound up storm. Have we seen that--just in general--in the last 5-6 months? Suppressed, weak, and shunted has been a more predominant theme than what we see on the AIs. I mean stuff can always change...but I'm starting to believe the idea of winters having a "personality".

[Maestrobjwa]

Thought I'd share this here from the NY thread, lol

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Model Debate:

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Anyone have the weathernext? Would love to know how that’s been trending. 

[snowfan]

WPC has been slowly nudging upwards the impact chances for this one. Current view.

 

[TSSN+]

Nam at 84hrs does not look like euro at 84hrs 

[TSSN+]

Icon however does 

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam at 84hrs does not look like euro at 84hrs 

Well it's the nam at the end of its run so..

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon however does 

ICON isn’t like 12z at all but it shouldn’t be a nothingburger like the Euro was.

[mitchnick]

None of these models can string together 2 consecutive near identical runs in a row.

[mitchnick]

Vort on the Iconbl is a bit of a mess. A consolidated vort would really help us all.

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

None of these models can string together 2 consecutive near identical runs in a row.

Not surprising with the convoluted upper air setup in Canada. Nothing will be nailed down until tomorrow night or early Thursday.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

ICON isn’t like 12z at all but it shouldn’t be a nothingburger like the Euro was.

It's pretty bad. Gets some snow into The area as the run ends but world's apart from its 12z

Definitely a nod towards the Euro

[mitchnick]

Icon 1mb weaker than 12z with slp a touch east as well.

[TSSN+]

More to come after this so it’s not a total fail. 
 

 

[Paleocene]

Time for the 18z runs to pull us all back in. So that we can all bail tomorrow with a 12z fail

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's pretty bad. Gets some snow into The area as the run ends but world's apart from its 12z

Definitely a nod towards the Euro

I wouldn't say it's a nod to the Euro. It's much better actually, but not as good as 12z.

[Amped]

Icon closes off a 500mb low over ohio at the last second. Extrapolated it would probably try to hook the coastal back towards long island.

[soadforecasterx]

Looks like energy doesnt fully catch up in time to capture the low. still would be a good hit but low would move NE from here.