Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Solution Man]

@bnchowhere the maps

[bncho]

We lowkey get some wrap around snow!!

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

We lowkey get some wrap around snow!!

Feel like getting closer to the big euro ai runs. Just needs to tuck a bit more 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm. 

On its own this run is fine. 

However, if you step this another  time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Solution Man said:

@bnchowhere the maps

gotta say at this point in time...that looks pretty freakin awesome.  I thought we were like done for the winter or at least Feb.  I'd take any of that with gravy

[Paleocene]

 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah i jumped the gun. Was half paying attention and compared it to 6z.  In the beginning they had me, ngl

Come on dude!  Step up for our last hurrah storm!!!!!

[baltosquid]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm. 

I mean I don’t think it’s a good step either, think it’s just that it is a good run. Obviously it lost the boom of 06z unless you’re on the eastern edge but it works and we take what works. Maybe it keeps going this way and it is a dud but it hasn’t picked a final trend yet.

[Solution Man]

Wow look at that backside band

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On its own this run is fine. 

However, if you step this another  time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer. 

Good post.  This is what I got out of it. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm. 

Just by looking at the MSLP maps, the 12z GFS did exactly this. It lets go of the primary quicker.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@bnchowhere the maps

Kuchera

[GreyHat]

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

That (100% wrong..) cliché is not only corny but it's totally untrue. Any meteorologist on their worst day is better than you at forecasting on your best day. I'm not sure, but you sound like you could be a teenager so my encouragement to you would be to post less and read more. A lot more. I've learned so much the past 14 years on here by just reading and realizing there is so much to the science of meteorology. And I probably understand about 2-5% of it still.

I'm not a met and don't pretend to be one.

I see I hit a sore spot on a joke that I've heard.

You all have fun poking me.

It was a joke get over it.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Wow look at that backside band

backside action.  Reminds me of my days as a merchant marine off the Barbary Coast smuggling novelty toys.  

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On its own this run is fine. 

However, if you step this another  time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer. 

 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On its own this run is fine. 

However, if you step this another  time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer. 

I think we would need to score in the same way that Charlotte did with their last storm, which was mostly from the upper level low instead of being in the Raleigh screw zone (our equivalent).

[GreyHat]

35 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Dude. You are just not getting it. If you listen to and learn from the meteorologists you will see that there are reasons for issues with the forecast. Meteorology is an inexact science but using and science and not just reading a model and trusting it at face value with logic and reasoning will change everything. And informed hobbyists can do the same. Criticizing people that have taken the time to learn physics and interpretation of models and recognizing patterns with learning that far excedes the layman gets respect. I dunno.. You have not been well accepted here. You need analysis, deeper thoughts, comparisons to factors, explanation for what you see.. Or ask questions!! But think when you ask and make them thoughtful. 

It was a joke that I've heard.

I'll see myself back out.

[SnowenOutThere]

Once again to illustrate this point look at the snowfall distribution 6z vs 12z. 6z on top 12 on bottom.

Yes it still snows for most of the subforum. However, notice where the snowfall max is located. We went from a north south gradient to a more typical Millar B NE/SW gradient. This is fine; however, its the first indication that we could see this go the way of a normal Millar B. I do not endorse this run of the GFS but it is something to be wary of going forward. In my opinion we want a stronger and more southern initial low pressure and do not want to root for a weaker low even if it is more south as it will simply require more time to develop and be more likely to miss to our NE. 

[bncho]

I can already tell this is gonna be a good run from the better model in the CMC

[Solution Man]

Just now, 87storms said:

I think we would need to score in the same way that Charlotte did with their last storm, which was mostly from the upper level low instead of being in the Raleigh screw zone (our equivalent).

Trust me I know, was in Raleigh for that….what a disaster for them

[batmanbrad]

northern DE, NJ, most of eastern NY, and central/southern New England really score well on this GFS run.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On its own this run is fine. 

However, if you step this another  time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer. 

This is the known hazard of living in the mid atlantic for miller B's, it can (and mostly does!) happen but lets see, there have been times where it has worked for us.  Hopefully the Euro AI continues with beefy CCB for us.  Also like seeing that weathernext on our side.

[baltosquid]

CMC thru 114 is a bit more amped. If the transfer happens next frame or two I think we do well, beyond that and we probably are too late to cash in much.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Trust me I know, was in Raleigh for that….what a disaster for them

Yea it was basically a Miller B style screw job for them.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

northern DE, NJ, most of eastern NY, and central/southern New England really score well on this GFS run.

Great news

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

 

Listen, this storm is a loss for me. I know that and frankly I've had my fill of snow and ice when walking on grounds. I'm forecasting for NOVA for this storm.

[LeesburgWx]

I think I might move to NJ next for more snow. GFS is acceptable though

[Shad]

These Miller B's never workout south of mason dixon.........good luck to the northern folks

[Weather Will]

Wait for GEFS for a better sense of trend.  GFS has an intense storm.  That is good.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Listen, this storm is a loss for me. I know that and frankly I've had my fill of snow and ice when walking on grounds. I'm forecasting for NOVA for this storm.

We know the risks of a Miller B