Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

If you haven’t banned grey hat or rev yet he’s probably safe lol 

You really can’t compare the two worst posters here with a smart, degrees met.  We look up to the met, we have faith in him.  He and he alone is responsible for the failure or success of this storm.  His very membership is on the line.  

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

If you haven’t banned grey hat or rev yet he’s probably safe lol 

 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You really can’t compare the two worst posters here with a smart, degrees met.  We look up to the met, we have faith in him.  He and he alone is responsible for the failure or success of this storm.  His very membership is on the line.  

[bncho]

Dunno if anybody talked about it but the GFS AI starts as rain before flipping to heavy, heavy snow at 31-33. Probably at least 6" 10:1 areawide

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Bro haha 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Dunno if anybody talked about it but the GFS AI starts as rain before flipping to heavy, heavy snow at 31-33. Probably at least 6" 10:1 areawide

 That is a thing if beauty bro!

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....

Big improvement!!!  Could we be seeing the king euro caving to GFS????

[stormy]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

I wanted to jump off a cliff after reading his notes. 

I'm sorry if I caused anyone any great consternation with my stark realism.  No malice was intended.

Cheer Up!  Most of the models seem invested for Sunday.

But, its probably not wise to participate in any tail gate parties until Saturday.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick  @Ji  @stormtracker

a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. 
 

Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. 
 

However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. 
 

In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow!  There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. 
 

Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out. 

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week. 

I'm going to wait until Thursday/Friday until I can say that. February 2025 fucked up within 5 days.

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

yeah!  First impressions are not always lasting impressions.

It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov

This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte.

The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM.  They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble.

Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

 

The 6z Euro just gave me 2".

[Shad]

anybody have snow maps for the AI GFS and AI Euro 6z runs?

[TSSN+]

I know it’s just the NAM but, I think this is what we wanna see. 
 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm going to wait until Thursday/Friday until I can say that. February 2025 fucked up within 5 days.

By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain 

I think temps are going to be an issue

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I know it’s just the NAM but, I think this is what we wanna see. 
 

560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down

[TSSN+]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think temps are going to be an issue

You don’t say? No clue that was your opinion on this. Anyone else know about this? This is news to me. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

You don’t say? No clue that was your opinion on this. Anyone else know about this? This is news to me. 

At least Chuck did not say “it’s gonna be rain”.  

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down

My man!

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think temps are going to be an issue

For real? Man -shocker 

[Scraff]

Anyone know what the soil temps will be come Sunday? That’s my only worry. 

[Shad]

Sun Angle season too.....do not forget

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Omg dude. Do you have to troll every comment? It's getting extremely old. 

 

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Omg dude. Do you have to troll every comment? It's getting extremely old. 

To a point now just want plowable snow just bc of the trolling. Tiresome

[GaWx]

AI Weathernext2 (from Google DeepMind), which has done pretty well overall this winter, gives DC ~10” per the 6Z on SV though this is likely overdone since it is 10:1:

 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My man!

If we even get 1” this weekend can he be put into a time out? lol 

[baltosquid]

HGEFS (AIGEFS plus GEFS) has a mean of ~0.7QPF for the event with temps looking good from 925mb and up. Definitely would struggle with temps in the middle of the event for the metros but still a chance it remains snow as depicted, just bad accumulations. But a snow, to white rain, to snow again from CCB for a near warning level event would be pretty nice for a Miller B here. And finishing on clean snow would hide the slushy layer. I think it would also get Baltimore to about climo?

[H2O]

Hey guys I’m not sure if anyone has also factored in how many cars will be out on the roads. Temps, soil, angle of the cold, blazing sun have all been mentioned. But we really need to think about all the SUVs and minivans making it rain

[LP08]

If we are under the ccb if this storm even exits on Sunday, I’m not worried about ground temps. We would have better ratios than that super cold storm in January.