stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: If you haven’t banned grey hat or rev yet he’s probably safe lol You really can’t compare the two worst posters here with a smart, degrees met. We look up to the met, we have faith in him. He and he alone is responsible for the failure or success of this storm. His very membership is on the line. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: If you haven’t banned grey hat or rev yet he’s probably safe lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You really can’t compare the two worst posters here with a smart, degrees met. We look up to the met, we have faith in him. He and he alone is responsible for the failure or success of this storm. His very membership is on the line. 1 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Dunno if anybody talked about it but the GFS AI starts as rain before flipping to heavy, heavy snow at 31-33. Probably at least 6" 10:1 areawide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bro haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, bncho said: Dunno if anybody talked about it but the GFS AI starts as rain before flipping to heavy, heavy snow at 31-33. Probably at least 6" 10:1 areawide That is a thing if beauty bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys.... Big improvement!!! Could we be seeing the king euro caving to GFS???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: I wanted to jump off a cliff after reading his notes. I'm sorry if I caused anyone any great consternation with my stark realism. No malice was intended. Cheer Up! Most of the models seem invested for Sunday. But, its probably not wise to participate in any tail gate parties until Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick @Ji @stormtracker a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow! There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out. Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week. I'm going to wait until Thursday/Friday until I can say that. February 2025 fucked up within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, stormy said: yeah! First impressions are not always lasting impressions. It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte. The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM. They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble. Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm. The 6z Euro just gave me 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 anybody have snow maps for the AI GFS and AI Euro 6z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I know it’s just the NAM but, I think this is what we wanna see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I'm going to wait until Thursday/Friday until I can say that. February 2025 fucked up within 5 days. By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain I think temps are going to be an issue 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I know it’s just the NAM but, I think this is what we wanna see. 560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think temps are going to be an issue You don’t say? No clue that was your opinion on this. Anyone else know about this? This is news to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, TSSN+ said: You don’t say? No clue that was your opinion on this. Anyone else know about this? This is news to me. At least Chuck did not say “it’s gonna be rain”. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down My man! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think temps are going to be an issue For real? Man -shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Anyone know what the soil temps will be come Sunday? That’s my only worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Sun Angle season too.....do not forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Omg dude. Do you have to troll every comment? It's getting extremely old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Omg dude. Do you have to troll every comment? It's getting extremely old. To a point now just want plowable snow just bc of the trolling. Tiresome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 AI Weathernext2 (from Google DeepMind), which has done pretty well overall this winter, gives DC ~10” per the 6Z on SV though this is likely overdone since it is 10:1: 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My man! If we even get 1” this weekend can he be put into a time out? lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 HGEFS (AIGEFS plus GEFS) has a mean of ~0.7QPF for the event with temps looking good from 925mb and up. Definitely would struggle with temps in the middle of the event for the metros but still a chance it remains snow as depicted, just bad accumulations. But a snow, to white rain, to snow again from CCB for a near warning level event would be pretty nice for a Miller B here. And finishing on clean snow would hide the slushy layer. I think it would also get Baltimore to about climo? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Hey guys I’m not sure if anyone has also factored in how many cars will be out on the roads. Temps, soil, angle of the cold, blazing sun have all been mentioned. But we really need to think about all the SUVs and minivans making it rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If we are under the ccb if this storm even exits on Sunday, I’m not worried about ground temps. We would have better ratios than that super cold storm in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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