psuhoffman Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Can you do it with >1std to the index pattern? I can do that someday, not going to do that tonight lol. But the issue is ridges are becoming more significantly anomalous. So you won't see as many crazy anomalies in the past because they didn't exist as much. We are seeing more and more positive anomalies now...which yea makes it harder to overcome a hostile pacific...which is why we aren't snowing as much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can do that someday, not going to do that tonight lol. But the issue is ridges are becoming more significantly anomalous. So you won't see as many crazy anomalies in the past because they didn't exist as much. We are seeing more and more positive anomalies now...which yea makes it harder to overcome a hostile pacific...which is why we aren't snowing as much! Are you using the DM or CPC indexes? The CPC balances and evens it all out, so negative is just as probable as positive. Side note, but they are really moving toward RONI for ENSO monitoring: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago CPC isn't perfect too.. this pattern last Winter was called +PNA. This would have been "positive" on your graph. 2025 1 15 0.8425661297669382 2025 1 16 0.6292797257596462 2025 1 17 0.3591812956820121 2025 1 18 0.2963853705652808 2025 1 19 0.25645632216650666 2025 1 20 0.19665558838216474 2025 1 21 0.16494891370677975 2025 1 22 0.3096868402976654 2025 1 23 0.16090618641248808 2025 1 24 0.090735 2025 1 25 -0.00812 2025 1 26 -0.00391 2025 1 27 0.1299644364430 1287 2025 1 28 0.058971 2025 1 29 0.075685 2025 1 30 0.22591144673920 158 2025 1 31 0.28769816664388287 2025 2 1 0.23227473560905743 2025 2 2 0.061725 2025 2 3 -0.15733 2025 2 4 -0.14046 2025 2 5 0.22531992513175264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: CPC isn't perfect too.. this pattern last Winter was called +PNA. This would have been "positive" on your graph. 2025 1 15 0.8425661297669382 2025 1 16 0.6292797257596462 2025 1 17 0.3591812956820121 2025 1 18 0.2963853705652808 2025 1 19 0.25645632216650666 2025 1 20 0.19665558838216474 2025 1 21 0.16494891370677975 2025 1 22 0.3096868402976654 2025 1 23 0.16090618641248808 2025 1 24 0.090735 2025 1 25 -0.00812 2025 1 26 -0.00391 2025 1 27 0.12996443644301287 2025 1 28 0.058971 2025 1 29 0.075685 2025 1 30 0.22591144673920 158 2025 1 31 0.28769816664388287 2025 2 1 0.23227473560905743 2025 2 2 0.061725 2025 2 3 -0.15733 2025 2 4 -0.14046 2025 2 5 0.22531992513175264 I didn't just use the numerical index, when I looked at each event I looked at the 5/3/1 days loading patterns and adjusted if the numerical index was obviously misleading. NAO had to be adjusted a lot when a block in the western NAO domain was cancelled out by heights in the eastern NAO domain which isn't relevant to our pattern as much. It would erroneously show up as a neutral or positive NAO when in fact there was an NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Ok.. yeah unfortunately going through and making custom indexes probably yields the greatest correlation value. That's what I did for the Stratosphere and AO/NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Does this mean we aren’t getting any more snow this winter?. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Maybe we can start an indices and watching paint dry thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, ravensrule said: Maybe we can start an indices and watching paint dry thread. no one is forcing you to read the stuff you don't like 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, psuhoffman said: no one is forcing you to read the stuff you don't like It’s hard to miss when you have to wade through 156 pages of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I’m just tired of hearing about -PNA and +NAO. We get it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Reading this thread be like... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 28 minutes ago, anotherman said: I’m just tired of hearing about -PNA and +NAO. We get it. But those are what drives our weather, so gotta include them in discussions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 9 hours ago, bncho said: We're BACK!!!!! . Looks good.. it's only 180+ hours out . Yeah.. I mean What could go wrong??.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 58 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It’s hard to miss when you have to wade through 156 pages of it. It's basically a fiction thread if all you're going to be doing is posting long range AI snow maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's basically a fiction thread if all you're going to be doing is posting long range AI snow maps. If only there was as many AI snow maps posted as there was discussions about the PNA, MJO, NAO, PDO, AO and AMO. I would rather hear about the SWEAT index at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Just now, Ji said: Gfs! Beat me! Nisch for north and west, but too far away to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Gfs is on its own with that run. Canadian and Icon look like forecasts for different planets. Problem is all 3 of those models stink, so...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: But those are what drives our weather, so gotta include them in discussions Exactly-There's nothing else going on-so great time to learn and discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs is on its own with that run. Canadian and Icon look like forecasts for different planets. Problem is all 3 of those models stink, so...? For at least 2 years now, GFS is unreliable outside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago For those interested in the climate indexes discussion: check out 2026-2027 El Nino thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's basically a fiction thread if all you're going to be doing is posting long range AI snow maps. Chuck, Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS ens member 7 on WB gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Chuck, Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS member 7 gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao: Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. I look (or more accurately laugh) at them mainly on WxBell. Are the Euro AI snow maps flawed on Pivotal and other places, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I look (or more accurately laugh) at them mainly on WxBell. Are the Euro AI snow maps flawed on Pivotal and other places, too? I just know what people were posting here in the storm thread. They were showing like 2-4" in DC and Baltimore as late as last night! It was obvious 5+ days ago that this was a rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them. They do this for the same reason that chatGPT hallucinates if you don't phrase the prompt correctly. AI is very good at things like 500mb patterns that are relatively linear and confined to specific modes that have been thoroughly sampled in ERA5. It is not good at all at things that are highly nonlinear, conditional on sequences of events with a very broad phase space of possible outcomes - like the phasing of a storm or snowfall accumulations. You need information from a physical model to get that right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: Gfs is on its own with that run. Canadian and Icon look like forecasts for different planets. Problem is all 3 of those models stink, so...? Eps, aifs, ukmet on board. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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