The subsurface has warmed significantly over the past few months. That's +4c in the central-ENSO-subsurface.  TAO/Triton is a little more conservative in their readings than CPC, and it still has a >+4c area in the western subsurface I went through, since data became available in 1985, and found the 10 top analogs to broad subsurface state in January-February, like we have now. There are 5 positive analogs, 5 negative analogs. It should be noted that a lot of analogs had a