Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[mitchnick]

Quite a difference between Gefs/Geps and Eps at the end of their 12z runs. Eps being cool to seasonal w I th temps while Gefs/Geps are warm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hail Mary

Is there a minimum salary requirement to be able to post here?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

We're BACK!!!!!   

Start the thread 

[Ji]

Is there a minimum salary requirement to be able to post here?

Nope. 12 years old and above

[Paleocene]

EPS and AI EPS are both damp and cold next weekend. And potentially snowy, but looks miller-b with better luck to PA and north. Enough to keep me intrigued for another week for sure

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

EPS and AI EPS are both damp and cold next weekend. And potentially snowy, but looks miller-b with better luck to PA and north. Enough to keep me intrigued for another week for sure

Guess that was fun.  For a minute.  Didn’t think about the miller B idea.  This will end poorly unless you are in Scranton. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Guess that was fun.  For a minute.  Didn’t think about the miller B idea.  This will end poorly unless you are in Scranton. 

You can see it here on the 174hrs ensemble slp anomaly map. Scroll to 180hrs, 186hrs and 192hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026021512&fh=174

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

PD is tomorrow.

In 1869 it was a week later. 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Good thing we're so good at threading needles!

You should see my grandmothers needle point. She has this. 

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Guess that was fun.  For a minute.  Didn’t think about the miller B idea.  This will end poorly unless you are in Scranton. 

Joe Biden is ecstatic. 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

EPS and AI EPS are both damp and cold next weekend. And potentially snowy, but looks miller-b with better luck to PA and north. Enough to keep me intrigued for another week for sure

The Miller B signal has been there on the mean for a few days now, but it has trended south on the EPS on recent runs. Discussed this in the other thread. Still a bit of a longshot, but still some time for adjustments.

The window around the 23rd is also intriguing(maybe more so) with a Miller B look, but further south. The look up top is nice with HP to the N/NW and the 50-50 low.

 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Miller B signal has been there on the mean for a few days now, but it has trended south on the EPS on recent runs. Discussed this in the other thread. Still a bit of a longshot, but still some time for adjustments.

The window around the 23rd is also intriguing(maybe more so) with a Miller B look, but further south. The look up top is nice with HP to the N/NW and the 50-50 low.

 

What else we got?  Nothing so chips in

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What else we got?  Nothing so chips in

2 potential windows in a less than ideal pattern-hard to ask for more. The 20th is the longer shot for now. The window centered on the 23rd looks better, but unfortunately as we get closer the looks have become less favorable lately. We just cant know yet.

[Blizzard of 93]

The window on the 23rd on the 12z EPS has a favorable Miller B look this run that could lead to a potential winter storm chance.

[Terpeast]

AI gfs agrees on miller b feb 23-24, just a tad north. Something to watch for any favorable trends (if any) in the coming week. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The window on the 23rd on the 12z EPS has a favorable Miller B look this run that could lead to a potential winter storm chance.

Here is the 12z EPS 24 hour precip & snow for the 23rd chance.

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 12z EPS 24 hour precip & snow for the 23rd chance.

Definitely trended south as Cape stated.

[WEATHER53]

The 23-25th is real . Analogs say so.  They got  the early Dec one, wrong  about 12/22-24 one , mostly got snowcrete correct.  Blows the models away .  

[CAPE]

Because there isnt a NA blocking set up, the success of the upcoming potential events largely lies with timing of the vortices moving into the 50-50 space- they will be on the move and we need the confluence/convergence on the west side to flatten the flow some and keep surface HP in place.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Because there isnt a NA blocking set up, the success of the upcoming potential events largely lies with timing of the vortices moving into the 50-50 space- they will be on the move and we need the confluence/convergence on the west side to flatten the flow some and keep surface HP in place.

A Hudson high acts to compress the flow in a way similar to a block!  It’s why there is a whole subset of snows I found when breaking them down that look a lot like (looks up) THAT!    
 

Problem is they’ve gone extinct lately!  This setup used to work a lot!  Lately they seem to all end up warm or north. But I guess we can roll the dice again. Had to work eventually right? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A Hudson high acts to compress the flow in a way similar to a block!  It’s why there is a whole subset of snows I found when breaking them down that look a lot like (looks up) THAT!    
 

Problem is they’ve gone extinct lately!  This setup used to work a lot!  Lately they seem to all end up warm or north. But I guess we can roll the dice again. Had to work eventually right? 

Is the subset of Hudson high snows focused around late Feb? Climo would suggest better odds in January, but what do I know. 

[bncho]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A Hudson high acts to compress the flow in a way similar to a block!  It’s why there is a whole subset of snows I found when breaking them down that look a lot like (looks up) THAT!    
 

Problem is they’ve gone extinct lately!  This setup used to work a lot!  Lately they seem to all end up warm or north. But I guess we can roll the dice again. Had to work eventually right? 

I always thought of a Hudson High as a super southwest based -NAO… would you agree?

[Heisy]

A Hudson high acts to compress the flow in a way similar to a block!  It’s why there is a whole subset of snows I found when breaking them down that look a lot like (looks up) THAT!    
 
Problem is they’ve gone extinct lately!  This setup used to work a lot!  Lately they seem to all end up warm or north. But I guess we can roll the dice again. Had to work eventually right? 

Didn’t see it posted, but 18z euro op looked potent end of run, strong main shortwave, there was a ULL NW of Maine about to swing SE and nice compressed flow ahead of our shortwave

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro AI has the 23rd chance.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS AI & 18z GEFS AI also have the 23rd chance.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is the subset of Hudson high snows focused around late Feb? Climo would suggest better odds in January, but what do I know. 

 

There were several examples in February, most notably one in mid Feb 1997 that was a 6-8" snowfall across Maryland in what was an otherwise god awful pac puke pattern.  There were a couple examples in March also.  Actually seems there was a pretty even distribution with one in November and a couple December events...January did have the most with 4.  But a lot of those fringe season ones were a LONG time ago so... 

 

Here is an amazing stat....15/88 warning snows happened when 3/4 indexes were wrong!  Now Chuck is trying to convince us if one of 4 or 2 of 4 factors are bad...its game over, which lately it has been...but he also says we shouldn't think anything has changed. 

 

Below is the index breakdown of all of Baltimores warning snowfalls from 1948-2019 and you can see there are quite a few where 1 or even 2 of the indexes are hostile including plenty of hostile EPO/PNA patterns.  Obviously there was MORE snow when everything was good...but it wasn't as radically necessary to have a perfect pattern historically as it has been lately where if one or two things go wrong the whole thing goes to hell in a hand basket fast!  

 

                      EPO/PNA/AO/NAO

-	-	-	-	16
+	+	-	-	13
-	+	-	-	11
+	-	-	-	10
-	-	+	+	9
+	+	+	+	6
-	+	+	+	3

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I don't see  + - ++. Are you sure you aren't calling the last one +PNA the opposite? 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

There were several examples in February, most notably one in mid Feb 1997 that was a 6-8" snowfall across Maryland in what was an otherwise god awful pac puke pattern.  There were a couple examples in March also.  Actually seems there was a pretty even distribution with one in November and a couple December events...January did have the most with 4.  But a lot of those fringe season ones were a LONG time ago so... 

 

Here is an amazing stat....3 of the 88 5" snowstorms from 1948-2020 in Baltimore had every single index WRONG!  Obviously 3/88 is a super minority but the fact is we even used to snow when EVERYTHING was wrong if we got lucky enough!  Now Chuck is trying to convince us if one of 4 or 2 of 4 factors are bad...its game over, which lately it has been...but he also says we shouldn't think anything has changed. 

 

Below is the index breakdown of all of Baltimores warning snowfalls from 1948-2019 and you can see there are quite a few where 1 or even 2 of the indexes are hostile including plenty of hostile EPO/PNA patterns.  Obviously there was MORE snow when everything was good...but it wasn't as radically necessary to have a perfect pattern historically as it has been lately where if one or two things go wrong the whole thing goes to hell in a hand basket fast!  

 

                      EPO/PNA/AO/NAO

-	-	-	-	16
+	+	-	-	13
-	+	-	-	11
+	-	-	-	10
-	-	+	+	9
+	+	+	+	6
-	+	+	+	3

Edit.... my bad, I had an error that I just fixed.  So... there were no warning events with all 4 indexes hostile...HOWEVER...there were 15 warning events with 3/4 of the indexes hostile.  That is a significant amount of our snowfall!  Additionally, historically the AO/NAO was more important that the pacific.  We only had 18 warning snowstorms with a hostile AO/NAO help but we had 35 warning snowstorms with a hostile PNA pattern!  This has flipped recently, in the last 10 years the pacific has dominated in a way that is not historically normal, and is very problematic because historically arctic pattersn driven by huge EPO/PNA ridges are NOT the way we get snowy pattersn, they are typically cold/dry patterns.  Our snowiest patterns used to be -AO/NAO driven with a flawed pacific...this would direct pacific waves into the west and then would then run into the compressed flow over the east and be forced under us and it would be just cold enough to snow.  Think 2010.  That's our snow look.  Not some huge EPO/PNA ridge where our flow is right off the arctic and its just cold...but dry because there are no pacific waves everything is diving down the backside of the eastern trough...we just saw what that typically looks like the last 3 weeks!  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I don't see  + - ++. Are you sure you aren't calling the last one +PNA the opposite? 

Correct I fixed it, we did have 15 snowstorms with 3 of 4 indexes hostile but none with all 4.  Sorry...good catch 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Can you do it with >1std to the index pattern? 

I know sometimes a good gulf of alaska low pressure pattern will be called +EPO.