2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances.  The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

 

It depends where. Even in 1970 this was unlikely to be much snow south of DC and SE of the fall line. But even with this weaker low solution it’s close enough for places like Resiterstown, Frederick, Westminster, Parkton… I think it’s frankly a no brainer that these areas lost some snow. Was it 1” or 3” I dunno. But it’s so close that any colder at all would have made a difference. And we know it was colder. I don’t think it’s that complicated.  And we know we are losing snow.  The numbers bear it out. Our snowfall is declining. So we know for a fact we’re losing some storms. This one seems like a no brainer at least for my area. My wet bulb is 33. I’m going to he raining with a boundary layer of 33-34 for like 5 hours doing which about .3 qpf falls. That’s so marginal any colder at all and I’d be getting 2-3”. Maybe I do get 2” it’s close, but then any colder and it would have been 4”!   Either way I am losing some snow today because it’s warmer. Because this is a perfect example of a borderline temp event where it’s going to tip barely too warm in 2026 and so likely would have tipped cold enough at some point in the past. I dunno if that point is 2000 or 1970 or 1950 or 1930 but at some point this would have been snow, at least up here. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The sounding is from 6pm. This would have always had to start as rain with the boundary temps. But places NW of the fall line in MD definitely would have had 2-3” of snow if it was 50 years ago. Up here I might eke out 1” maybe and it could have been 3-4” if it was 2f colder. 

For your area and north of 70 for sure, but I don’t think even my area would have even been in play with 2-3f cooler temps

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

For your area and north of 70 for sure, but I don’t think even my area would have even been in play with 2-3f cooler temps

Maybe you’re right I was mostly focused on this area up here. But there were examples recently for 95. One in 2021. Around the super Bowl. Perfect track little wave. I eeked out 6” of super wet snow up here and 95 was 34-35 during the heavy precip with white rain. They were in the cold sector. The boundary was juts 1-2f too warm. That was better example for 95. This one is a lost snow for up here  

[mdhokie]

37 and rain in Deep Creek. Snowpack is taking a hit. Good thing I didn't plan on skiing today. 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe you’re right I was mostly focused on this area up here. But there were examples recently for 95. One in 2021. Around the super Bowl. Perfect track little wave. I eeked out 6” of super wet snow up here and 95 was 34-35 during the heavy precip with white rain. They were in the cold sector. The boundary was juts 1-2f too warm. That was better example for 95. This one is a lost snow for up here  

Yea I can def point to better examples for down here than this one today. Not gonna lose sleep over it though - we had decent cold air in dec and jan, that wasn’t the problem, getting an active STJ is/has been.  

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yea I can def point to better examples for down here than this one today. Not gonna lose sleep over it though - we had decent cold air in dec and jan, that wasn’t the problem, getting an active STJ is/has been.  

Yup. We had an arctic desert for 20 days. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends where. Even in 1970 this was unlikely to be much snow south of DC and SE of the fall line. But even with this weaker low solution it’s close enough for places like Resiterstown, Frederick, Westminster, Parkton… I think it’s frankly a no brainer that these areas lost some snow. Was it 1” or 3” I dunno. But it’s so close that any colder at all would have made a difference. And we know it was colder. I don’t think it’s that complicated.  And we know we are losing snow.  The numbers bear it out. Our snowfall is declining. So we know for a fact we’re losing some storms. This one seems like a no brainer at least for my area. My wet bulb is 33. I’m going to he raining with a boundary layer of 33-34 for like 5 hours doing which about .3 qpf falls. That’s so marginal any colder at all and I’d be getting 2-3”. Maybe I do get 2” it’s close, but then any colder and it would have been 4”!   Either way I am losing some snow today because it’s warmer. Because this is a perfect example of a borderline temp event where it’s going to tip barely too warm in 2026 and so likely would have tipped cold enough at some point in the past. I dunno if that point is 2000 or 1970 or 1950 or 1930 but at some point this would have been snow, at least up here. 

I dunno. This  just doesnt look like a a winner baby, not for our latitude. Now a stronger low along the coast, you would have something up your way at least. It doesnt really deepen until its well offshore though. And the High to the NE with lower pressure to the NW, kinda inverted from what we want, esp in a marginal Pacific airmass. Not like we have an antecedent cold air mass in place, but retreating. Its freaking mild air leading in. I think we agree in general, but I just don't think it applies in all marginal situations. A slightly stronger High to the north, even with the same weakish low and track might have been enough to tip the scales up your way.  Its the fine details in a marginal setup that can make the difference.

[ravensrule]

In 1869 it would have been snowing at my house. I'm pissed. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

21 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

In 1869 it would have been snowing at my house. I'm pissed. 

The weather just hasn't been the same since the completion of the Trans Continental Railroad.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The weather just hasn't been the same since the completion of the Trans Continental Railroad.

It’s really been rough. 

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The weather just hasn't been the same since the completion of the Trans Continental Railroad.

Yeah it would have turned out better if it was a straight continental railroad 

[stormy]

All this talk about 1970 and snow or rain because of 2 degrees is quite amusing. 2 degrees cannot be used 50 years later to decide rain or snow.  That is a fool-hearty venture. Many other parameters are involved.

50 years ago some winters produced a lot of snow, others did not.  It will be that way 50 years into the future.

Much of this winter has been plenty cold for snow but we have been locked into a long-term serious drought which has almost certainly been a factor.

In 1956, Staunton received 8.6 inches of snow. The average annual for the past 40 years has been 24 inches. I did not cherry pick 1956.  1952 only received 6.2" of snow.

In 1976, Staunton received 15.3 inches.

In 1996 Staunton received 21.5"

In 2016 Staunton received 24.5"

Lets relax, be positive and look forward to 2-21 thru 2-23.

[AdamHLG]

This storm is not making its own cold air.  When do the Kuchera maps come out?  In fact its so warm I couldn't even catch a draft in my flue to start my wood stove.

 

[wxdude64]

3 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Still 37.7/36.9 at 12:45 pm with light rain and fog. About 1/3" has fallen since 7 am CoCoRaHS report. 

38.3(high)/37.4 at 4:45 pm with mod rain and fog. Just a smidge over 1/2" since 7 am here. 

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

37 and rain in Deep Creek. Snowpack is taking a hit. Good thing I didn't plan on skiing today. 

Down to 34/33, hoping we can end as some wet snow. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

19 minutes ago, stormy said:

All this talk about 1970 and snow or rain because of 2 degrees is quite amusing. 2 degrees cannot be used 50 years later to decide rain or snow.  That is a fool-hearty venture. Many other parameters are involved.

50 years ago some winters produced a lot of snow, others did not.  It will be that way 50 years into the future.

Much of this winter has been plenty cold for snow but we have been locked into a long-term serious drought which has almost certainly been a factor.

In 1956, Staunton received 8.6 inches of snow. The average annual for the past 40 years has been 24 inches. I did not cherry pick 1956.  1952 only received 6.2" of snow.

In 1976, Staunton received 15.3 inches.

In 1996 Staunton received 21.5"

In 2016 Staunton received 24.5"

Lets relax, be positive and look forward to 2-21 thru 2-23.

How did Staunton only get 21.5" in 1996?

[nj2va]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Down to 34/33, hoping we can end as some wet snow. 

Flipped to a mix of rain/snow - wish I could predict the lottery too.

[wxdude64]

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How did Staunton only get 21.5" in 1996?

That's a good question. I had more than that in each of Jan and Feb of that year lol.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I dunno. This  just doesnt look like a a winner baby, not for our latitude. Now a stronger low along the coast, you would have something up your way at least. It doesnt really deepen until its well offshore though. And the High to the NE with lower pressure to the NW, kinda inverted from what we want, esp in a marginal Pacific airmass. Not like we have an antecedent cold air mass in place, but retreating. Its freaking mild air leading in. I think we agree in general, but I just don't think it applies in all marginal situations. A slightly stronger High to the north, even with the same weakish low and track might have been enough to tip the scales up your way.  Its the fine details in a marginal setup that can make the difference.

This area up here can, or at least used to, snow in some pretty nefarious setups. It’s why I averaged 40 and DC only 15!  I don’t think I average 40 anymore. Maybe 35 now.  It’s finally affecting up here now too!  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This area up here can, or at least used to, snow in some pretty nefarious setups. It’s why I averaged 40 and DC only 15!  I don’t think I average 40 anymore. Maybe 35 now.  It’s finally affecting up here now too!  

It probably affects us all proportionally. Long term avg here is 18.5. No idea what it is now, but its less than that.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This area up here can, or at least used to, snow in some pretty nefarious setups. It’s why I averaged 40 and DC only 15!  I don’t think I average 40 anymore. Maybe 35 now.  It’s finally affecting up here now too!  

I mean in a way you can think of every year as the snow line slowly moving upwards in elevation. You would now need an extra 1000ft or so to get the same snowfall averages of pre climate change.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE I have my own records for 21 years and used a local coop to put together Manchester snow stats going back  70 years. We’ve had more under 20” winters in the last 10 years than we did in the 60 years before!  Getting less than 20” used to be unheard of up here, a once every 15 year thing, now it happens every other winter!   Similar to how getting less than 10” was once a rare thing in Baltimore and now happens commonly. Looking at my snow data the obvious culprit up here is there used to be a ton of 32-33 degree wet snows from storms that were all rain in DC/Baltimore. Most weren’t huge. A lot of 2-5” type things.  I remember some. One was a 3.5” storm in Feb 2013 very similar to this. No cold. Pac puke pattern. Highs near 50 that week. Some weak wave slid by with like .45 qpf and it flipped to 33 degree snow and we got 3.5” of wet slop. Only up on the ridge. Even in town for only 2 and Westminster like 1”. Nothing south of there. Super marginal. This strikes me as the same exact type thing only slightly warmer so…I’m 34.7 right now and raining!   Those little 33 degree 3-4” wet snows are missing and there why suddenly my bad winters up here are 17” instead of 27”  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

All this talk about 1970 and snow or rain because of 2 degrees is quite amusing. 2 degrees cannot be used 50 years later to decide rain or snow.  That is a fool-hearty venture. Many other parameters are involved.

50 years ago some winters produced a lot of snow, others did not.  It will be that way 50 years into the future.

Much of this winter has been plenty cold for snow but we have been locked into a long-term serious drought which has almost certainly been a factor.

In 1956, Staunton received 8.6 inches of snow. The average annual for the past 40 years has been 24 inches. I did not cherry pick 1956.  1952 only received 6.2" of snow.

In 1976, Staunton received 15.3 inches.

In 1996 Staunton received 21.5"

In 2016 Staunton received 24.5"

Lets relax, be positive and look forward to 2-21 thru 2-23.

So you think it’s a coincidence that our snowfall has been declining at a proportional rate perfectly correlated to our temperature increase over the last 100 years. We don’t need some long winded anecdotal BS where you cherry pick a low snowfall period (like the 1950s) to THINk you proved something because you project your own stupidity and lack of comprehension of short term variability within long term trends.  I realize all of that went over your head bedside you’re a moron.  So just answer yes or no. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE I have my own records for 21 years and used a local coop to put together Manchester snow stats going back  70 years. We’ve had more under 20” winters in the last 10 years than we did in the 60 years before!  Getting less than 20” used to be unheard of up here, a once every 15 year thing, now it happens every other winter!   Similar to how getting less than 10” was once a rare thing in Baltimore and now happens commonly. Looking at my snow data the obvious culprit up here is there used to be a ton of 32-33 degree wet snows from storms that were all rain in DC/Baltimore. Most weren’t huge. A lot of 2-5” type things.  I remember some. One was a 3.5” storm in Feb 2013 very similar to this. No cold. Pac puke pattern. Highs near 50 that week. Some weak wave slid by with like .45 qpf and it flipped to 33 degree snow and we got 3.5” of wet slop. Only up on the ridge. Even in town for only 2 and Westminster like 1”. Nothing south of there. Super marginal. This strikes me as the same exact type thing only slightly warmer so…I’m 34.7 right now and raining!   Those little 33 degree 3-4” wet snows are missing and there why suddenly my bad winters up here are 17” instead of 27”  

I remember the 2024 November elevation dependent storm as another example. I drove up to the Catoctins and the base of the mountain had white rain. After driving up to the trailhead you could see the areas further uphill had accumulations on trees/logs while even 100 ft below there was nothing. Hiking up the critical point was 1200ft where it went from barely anything to sticking to most surfaces coated. I could literally look uphill and see several inches more snow compared to downhill where it was barely a coating. Once past 1500ft it all turned into 5 inches of snow and howling winds. Crazy part is just 50-100 years ago you could move that elevation line down to around 500ft! That would've been a snowstorm for most of MD down to point of rocks! Instead, it was reserved for our few remaining mountaintops that had enough elevation to starve off the warmth.