2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0

Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end

Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe neutral. It's all High pressure at the very end

Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant

Well, that slow change may just be as a result of the fast warming. Give it some time before dropping the lifeboats.lifeboat.

Edit: Iow, the atmosphere just may need time to catch up to a Niño that has warmed as fast as this one.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. 

Does the PDO really make that much of a difference?

-PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol

[GaWx]

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
 

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:

1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN  

  

SITE       HIGH TEMP   PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD   PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS  

BILLINGS      111         108 (7/14/2002)                1934  

LIVINGSTON    105         105 (8/5/1961)                 1948  

MILES CITY    115         111 (6/26/2012)                1937  

SHERIDAN      109         107 (7/27/2021)                1907  

BAKER         110         109 (7/25/2024)                1998  

 

2) N UT

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT  

  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,   

UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN   

2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE   

RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,   

2021, AND 2022.  

 

3) E ID:

THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES   

TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100   

DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^

6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. 

Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s. 

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

You can get VP here...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^

6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. 

Clearly this will be one of, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??

[George001]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Clearly this will be one of the, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does. 

Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

Incidentally, contemporary observers in 1936 did not simply pretend weather history began with the official national series. So I highly doubt anyone in 1936 was objecting that it was not really the hottest because the national record did not reach back to 1776. The chief of the Iowa Weather and Crop Bureau described July 1936 as the hottest in at least 117 years, drawing on regional observations extending back to 1819.

The official CONUS record begins in 1895 because that is when coverage becomes adequate for a consistent national average — not because no weather observations existed earlier. We have scattered instrumental records from the eighteenth century and a rapidly expanding national network by the mid-nineteenth century.

No, we cannot calculate an apples-to-apples CONUS average for 1776. But given the magnitude and enormous geographic footprint of July 1936, it is exceedingly difficult to believe that a still-hotter national July occurred in the preceding century without leaving a conspicuous instrumental and historical trail. “Hottest on record” is entirely correct — and 1936 was very likely exceptional over a considerably longer period.

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway.

This is absolutely relevant to the ENSO discussion. U.S. weather is influenced by El Niño, and this entire thread is speculating about what it may mean for winter. But it is summertime right now, Niño 3.4 anomalies are already off the chart, and SST anomalies are nearing strong El Niño territory. The possible effects do not wait for December to begin.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.

This is what I was trying to get across to Adam.  Like I have been saying, this isn't something I want, so it's not out of bias. @bluewave can tell you how I resistant I was to the idea in the lead up to 2023...I mocked him and made light of it, and the dude nailed it. No harm in getting it wrong....w all do, just learn from it and be willing to adapt.

[TriPol]

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now. 

[GaWx]

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. 

Does the PDO really make that much of a difference?

-PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol

I've been thinking about this too. Makes you wonder if with CC what is typical of el nino could be changing or if we've just been oversubscribing a small sample size. Either one says we aren't necessarily going to get a big GOA low. It also says maybe the El nino - PDO connection is less settled than we think. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Chris, 

Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

 

I realize that and was talking more generally about the DJF means. 1997-1998 had the strongest connection between the Aleutian low and the low across the Southern Tier of the CONUS.  

There is always going to be variability from month to month and season to season between different super El Ninos. 

By 2015-2016 the Aleutian low was weaker along with the low in the Southeast even with the strong +PDO.

2023-2024 also had a weaker Aleutian low that split into two pieces. So the low across the Southeast was weaker than 1997-1998 also in the means.

It’s also possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also. The chart below shows the rising 500mb heights over North America and the adjacent oceans during DJF. 
 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I realize that and was talking more generally about the DJF means. 1997-1998 had the strongest connection between the Aleutian low and the low across the Southern Tier of the CONUS.  

There is always going to be variability from month to month and season to season between different super El Ninos. 

By 2015-2016 the Aleutian low was weaker along with the low in the Southeast even with the strong +PDO.

2023-2024 also had a weaker Aleutian low that split into two pieces. So the low across the Southeast was weaker than 1997-1998 also in the means.

It’s also possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also. The chart below shows the rising 500mb heights over North America and the adjacent oceans during DJF. 
 

 

 

 

 

The stronger ridges and weaker troughs are likely playing a huge role. If you look at SLP, it’s less muted. However, still some subtle differences between the events. 

 

[roardog]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

I dont care if Nino peaks at 5.0...I really only care about the weather in my backyard. I mean, most weather weenies do. 

Any early thoughts for Michigan? Ive been thinking 2015-16 is a decent starting point but I've also been looking more into 1877-78.

I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog. 

[George001]

39 minutes ago, roardog said:

I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog. 

That’s certainly possible. Imo the issue my area (near Boston) has in super ninos isn’t just the temps, it’s temps + storm track (miller A setups which are more common in super Ninos are very prone to screwing us). In Michigan you have more buffer room with the temps than we do, and if we do get some MC forcing it could lead to more of an inside runner track which is good to you guys out west.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark My apologies for yesterday. My response was uncalled for

[LakePaste25]

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s also possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also. The chart below shows the rising 500mb heights over North America and the adjacent oceans during DJF. 
 

 

 

Chris, thanks.

 A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then.

 

 In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q:

-let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm

-let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe.

-That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark My apologies for yesterday. My response was uncalled for

Appreciate that...no worries at all. We're all very passionate about the weather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

That’s certainly possible. Imo the issue my area (near Boston) has in super ninos isn’t just the temps, it’s temps + storm track (miller A setups which are more common in super Ninos are very prone to screwing us). In Michigan you have more buffer room with the temps than we do, and if we do get some MC forcing it could lead to more of an inside runner track which is good to you guys out west.

Yea, we aren't getting a "high-end" season with an El Nino that potent even if everything worked out perfectly...just too great a volume of Miller A systems. I will bet anything that the signature storm of the season will jackpot the mid atlantic...maybe we still get slammed, but to a lesser extent. Our ceiling this season is normal to maybe about 10-12" above normal snowfall....like 1965-1966. But odds strongly favor less than that.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, thanks.

 A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then.

 

 In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q:

-let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm

-let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe.

-That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough isn’t stronger/weaker. 

 

Hadley cell expansion is actually increasing the size and latitude (poleward) of subtropical ridging. Not *every ridge* but subtropical ridges.

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/index.html

But to your point, that’s also true that baseline GPH goes up as well. That’s why whenever I look at past years, I use the climate period that fits that year whenever possible. For example:

1972 -> use 1961-1990

1982 -> use 1971-2000 

etc

otherwise it’s difficult to pick out a signal when these past years have too much troughing using the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline. Unfortunately the tools that use the correct climate period are not always available.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Hadley cell expansion is actually increasing the size and latitude (poleward) of subtropical ridging. Not *every ridge* but subtropical ridges.

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/index.html

But to your point, that’s also true that baseline GPH goes up as well. That’s why whenever I look at past years, I use the climate period that fits that year whenever possible. For example:

1972 -> use 1961-1990

1982 -> use 1971-2000 

etc

otherwise it’s difficult to pick out a signal when these past years have too much troughing using the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline. Unfortunately the tools that use the correct climate period are not always available.  

If possible, 1941-1970 and 1961-1980 would be ideal.