2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The difference between this Nino and 2023, even 2015 are night and day. We have seen a complete trade wind reversal this year along with relentless WWBs/westerlies since April and it’s going to continue as far as the eye can see, augmented by the TC’s and the MJO progression this month. This year, unlike 2023 or even 2015 for that matter, we are seeing the WWBs and DWKWs easily propagating east of the dateline. 2023 and 2015 actually saw EWBs even up to this point in time and the trade winds just kept fighting back….this year….nope, not even close. @csnavywx pointed this out about a month ago. This El Niño is just going to continue to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content with nothing to counter it, right through this fall

Frankly, I hope you're right bc a record canonical El Niño is theoretically better for east coast winter enthusiasts than a hybrid MC oriented event. That being said, I'm not ready to bite off on that yet.

[BlizzardWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Main take away for me is it seems to be more characteristic of warm ENSO than 2023 was....granted it's probably still underestimating the MC competition,  but the point is it's less than 2023, which is what I have been figuring. I don't think this winter will be as warm as 2023 in the east and I feel pretty good about saying that.

That is certainly the way it looks. Yeah, some MC influence is still lingering, but the nino obviously still has a lot of room to run too. It'll clearly be improved over 2023. And like you said that is what actually matters for this year. 

[mitchnick]

Surprisingly, Euro seasonal still not very impressed with ACE forecast.

[snowman19]

[frontranger8]

On 7/1/2026 at 10:46 AM, BlizzardWx said:

For all the talk of the arctic being cold, the sea ice hasn't got the memo, running near record lows. What I suspect, if the "cold" pattern continues, is that this will slow down heading into peak summer melt season like we've seen in the last few years. So we end up low, but not record low. On the other hand if melt off continues it would be yet another sign that something has indeed shifted. 

Have to consider where the cold is and what areas are being melted out. The low hanging fruit that isn't as far north has been melted out over the past few weeks.

[frontranger8]

On 7/3/2026 at 5:58 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino who?

ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)

Goofus at 246 hours....here is what latest Euro shows for same time.

[mitchnick]

Individual monthly December and January Euro seasonal maps courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62735-winter-2026-2027-historic-potential/?do=findComment&comment=8107554

 

[snowman19]

Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns

[TriPol]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold either. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns

Just wait until we get a SSW event or the polar vortex dives. We can't forecast those this far out. I'm not worried about this upcoming winter at all.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns

Just a WAG, but I'd day there's a 5-10% chance the winter (DJF) north of MD/PA border will average BN, but a 50/50 chance 1 month could end up BN with February being the best chance.

Fwiw, I  think March has a 60-70% chance of BN, though only slightly.

[snowman19]

New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3

Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6
 01JUL2026           2.7          1.5          1.2        0.5

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....4
29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6
 01JUL2026           2.7          1.5          1.2        0.5

Unlike 2015, region 4 is actually consistently cooling. Crankywxguy pointed this out the other day. It is nowhere near as warm as 2015, not even close. This is the animation since April, with a consistent, pronounced cooling in region 4. It’s actually on the verge of dropping below weak El Niño levels to neutral/La Nada

@roardog

 

 

 

 

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6
 01JUL2026           2.7          1.5          1.2        0.5

If I’m looking at the BOM correctly, isn’t it already too warm for early July? 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

If I’m looking at the BOM correctly, isn’t it already too warm for early July? 

 If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.

[bluewave]

Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts. 

Forecast from August 2023

Verification

 

 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts. 

Forecast from August 2023

Verification

 

 

And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.

Edit: And let's not forget this month's forecast looks very similar to other seasonal modeling.

 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, TriPol said:

Just wait until we get a SSW event or the polar vortex dives. We can't forecast those this far out. I'm not worried about this upcoming winter at all.

While it won’t be a wall to wall shutout and there will be cold shots & brief opportunities, I would expect a pac jet dominated winter.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been uogrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.

 

You have to remember that biases with these models are often situational on where the strongest ridges set up. The locations of the strongest ridges will vary based on La Niña, El Niño and the intensity of the event.

This past winter none of the models forecast the record warmth out West where the ridge got stuck in place. The magnitude of the models missing the cold in the east was significantly smaller than the warmth in the west.

About the only time in the last few years that the seasonal models were significantly too warm across the entire CONUS was back in January 2025. It was close to the 30th coldest January for the CONUS which was the coldest single month of the 2020s so far. But that miss was eclipsed by December 2024 being the 4th warmest on record.

 

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember that biases with these models are often situational on where the strongest ridges set up. The locations of the strongest ridges will vary based on La Niña, El Niño and the intensity of the event.

This past winter none of the models forecast the record warmth out West where the ridge got stuck in place. The magnitude of the models missing the cold in the east was significantly smaller than the warmth in the west.

About the only time in the last few years that the seasonal models were significantly too warm across the entire CONUS was back in January 2025. It was close to the 30th coldest January for the CONUS which was the coldest single month of the 2020s so far. But that miss was eclipsed by December 2024 being the 4th warmest on record.

 

 

If your point is that seasonal models are generally inaccurate, I agree. But they do offer guidance and leave it up to pros and weenies to put whatever weight they choose. But what we're seeing this year so far is a "rough" consensus similar to this month's Euro. At this point, that consensus is encouraging unless one is hoping for a national/worldwide torch.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If your point is that seasonal models are generally inaccurate, I agree. But they do offer guidance and leave it up to pros and weenies to put whatever weight they choose. But what we're seeing this year so far is a "rough" consensus similar to this month's Euro. At this point, that consensus is encouraging unless one is hoping for a national/worldwide torch.

In a broad sense you can consider these seasonal models guidance, but the guidance is more of a correlation at times than an actual forecast.

I showed in earlier posts how the 2023-2024 seasonal forecasts matched the correlations for Nino 3.4 and not the subset of super events over +2.0.

About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at in July are the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.

That makes more sense.

[LakePaste25]

I could see the euro seasonal close to being accurate if we see a full discharge of the W pac warm pool and muted MC forcing. This is probably why the Euro plumes are also showing ONI of +3C to +4C. These go hand in hand IMO (warm pool discharge and record breaking Nino). 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

.......

About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at is the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? 

Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it. 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? 

Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it. 

I usually don’t post seasonal forecast maps for details like temperatures. Looking more at where the seasonal models have some actual skill like the ENSO plumes past the spring predictability barrier. The temperature maps posted were to show that the models haven’t had much skill in that area. 

Just remember than none of the seasonal models over the last decade have successfully forecast any the record warmth which has been so frequent at times most winter seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

I don’t understand what you mean by surrogates since that implies a situation or process where you can exert some influence on the outcome.  Now if I could affect the weather in some way, it would be to restore our colder climate of days past since I didn’t like how much warmer our climate has become. 

[George001]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? 

Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it. 

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously. 

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I usually don’t post seasonal forecast maps for details like temperatures. Looking more at where the seasonal models have some actual skill like the ENSO plumes past the spring predictability barrier. The temperature maps posted were to show that the models haven’t had much skill in that area. 

Just remember than none of the seasonal models over the last decade have successfully forecast any the record warmth which has been so frequent at times most winter seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

I don’t understand what you mean by surrogates since that implies a situation or process where you can exert some influence on the outcome.  Now if I could affect the weather in some way, it would be to restore our colder climate of days past since I didn’t like how much warmer our climate has become. 

From my recollection, you comment on seasonal models as much as everyone else. If you want to say commenting doesn't have anthing to do with belief in them, then ok. But I don't think anyonevon this Board believes seasonal modeling is gospel, especially at 5+ months.

You misunderstand the surrogate intent and obviously deflect. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously. 

 

Like I said, I  agree seasonal models are generally inaccurate. We know this. But using a model prog from 3 years ago as a basis has no relevance especially considering upgrades have been made and without statistical proof that the current version has particular biases in Niños. And since there have been no Niños since 2023, that ain't happening. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

From my recollection, you comment on seasonal models as much as everyone else. If you want to say commenting doesn't have anthing to do with belief in them, then ok. But I don't think anyonevon this Board believes seasonal modeling is gospel, especially at 5+ months.

You misunderstand the surrogate intent and obviously deflect. 

 

 

Then maybe you can help me understand what you mean by the term surrogate since it’s not typically a word that is used when trying to understand the weather and climate.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then maybe you can help me understand what you mean by the term surrogate since it’s not typically a word that is used when trying to understand the weather and climate.

Come on man. Google is your friend. Lol