2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2 overall

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

Gimme' 82/83 please! Surprise 7" in December then the Megalopolis storm in February. My brother and I had to push my late uncle's van during the Noon hour when BWI recorded 4" in that hour. Thunder and lightning all day was just surreal. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall. Nowhere in that tweet does he say region 1+2

I think he was just pointing out that the entire 1+2 was cooler than 82/83.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall

 He was but my point is that Paita is just a very specific small area in the far edge of 1+2. It’s 1+2 that we follow because it matters significantly as far as Nino effects on the globe are concerned. And the current 1+2 is nowhere near record highs. I’m adding important context related to this tweet you posted. Without what I added, one could be fooled into thinking that 1+2 is at all-time highs, which is nowhere near true.

[GaWx]

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:
                     1+2       3          4  
    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03
 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!
 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:
Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:
1+2: 3.9
3:    3.9
3.4: 3.7
4:    2.4
 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based

From @csnavywx

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

[GaWx]

 The strong 3.4 OISST warming hasn’t stopped as it warmed 0.12 on 6/5, which means a whopping 0.5C warming 5/31-6/5! Mon’s weekly should be ~0.3 warmer (~0.8). 6/5 RONI equivalent is ~+1.0:

[raindancewx]

The very cold Western US + MX heatwave in June 2023 are nowhere to be found so far. It's been quite warm in the West so far this June, and the monsoon in Mexico has been in full swing at normal timing. Much of the West was 5F below average in June 2023.

Nino 4 was already about 30.0C in May - record warmth. Nino 3.4 finished below May 2015.

The precip pattern depicted on the June run for DJF looks like a blend of 1997-98, 2009-10, 2012-13, 2015-16. Looks to me like an MJO 6-7 blend with major +IOD contributions by East Africa.

 

 

The Canadian Update in June did move the greatest precipitation area v. means much further east in the tropics, which is a good sign for canonical El Nino impacts.

 

[GaWx]

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right!

The thought that you would question the great JB's claim of a weather record setter is shocking, just shocking.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 

6 Jun 2026	1013.94	1016.55	-27.42	-18.06	-9.05
5 Jun 2026	1012.20	1015.15	-29.81	-17.33	-8.44
4 Jun 2026	1010.52	1014.25	-35.29	-16.43	-7.77
3 Jun 2026	1010.14	1013.80	-34.80	-15.47	-7.10
2 Jun 2026	1012.48	1015.05	-27.13	-14.79	-6.56

 

What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 

82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years. 

 Thanks, Chuck. Consistent with that, 2025 has by a large margin the strongest +AO for the period I was analyzing, May 23rd-June 4th from 1958 through 2026. That period in 2025 was chilly (~1.5C BN)  though not nearly as cold as the ~-3.5C of 2026. By the way, 2026 had the 4th strongest +AO of this period back to 1958 thus intuitively helping it be one of the coldest. 2023 had the 10th strongest +AO and was ~1C BN. 1994 had the 2nd strongest +AO but it was only ~0.5C BN. 1996 had the 3rd strongest +AO, but it was NN rather than cold. So, the correlation of +AO to cold N of 80B is far from perfect due to other factors coming into play as you very likely realize even though there’s still a decent partial correlation.

[GaWx]

On 6/3/2026 at 1:12 PM, GaWx said:

 The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!

It turns out that the models were right on as today’s Darwin SLP is 1017.70, the earliest that high so early in the season and the 8th highest on record:

7 Jun 2026

1014.05

1017.70

-34.73

 Darwin will be lower tomorrow. Based on history, that 1017.7 could easily end up the highest daily Darwin SLP of 2026. But there’s no telling for sure as an SLP that high remains possible through September (end of their winter).
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^It updates at 2am?

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^It updates at 2am?

It sometimes updates later but, yes, it often does update in the middle of the night our time. The 24 hour period that each daily is based on evidently ends at about the average middays of Darwin and Tahiti.

[snowman19]

“No surprises in the latest NMME climate model output. Niño intensity has ticked up in a few of the models (the CanESM5 was one of the last moderate Niño holdouts last month but it's all in on a near-record event now). I think the NCAR CESM1 broke or something this month.

The response looks extremely classic too. Wet anomalies across the tropical Pacific, with the NE and Central Pacific also active thanks to the +PMM. The Atlantic will be dry and hostile for basically the whole season, with drought possible in the Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will likely have a wet and stormy winter as the subtropical jet gets cranking.”

[snowman19]

The thermocline is about to deepen (drop) big time in the eastern tropical PAC. This very strongly supports this event staying east-based/East Pacific 
 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Nino 3.4 getting to 29.27 is really impressive so early in this event. The all-time record was 29.82 back on 11-17-15. They may need to extend the scale since the current forecast peak over is 30°C.
 

[George001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3.4 getting to 29.27 is really impressive so early in this event. The all-time record was 29.82 back on 11-17-15. They may need to extend the scale since the current forecast peak over is 30°C.
 

Yeah, definitely an early developing El Niño. Early developing events tend to peak stronger, and it looks like the consensus supports a super peak (which does not surprise me given what the subsurface looked like a couple of months ago). The question now is how will the super Nino affect the weather pattern? I’m thinking since it’s such an early developing event we will likely see the subtropical jet activate in the summer, and have a weaker Atlantic hurricane season than typical. For winter, it’s very early but these super ninos tend to follow a certain pattern (warm and wet in the east) so I would think that’s a good starting point. A bit off topic but I did notice a thing over the years where weenie sentiment tends to be too pessimistic during la Nina’s and too optimistic during El Niños. Has anyone else noticed this?

[snowman19]

Here comes the EPAC TC season (TD-2 EPAC). Likely very many to follow this summer….

 

 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the EPAC TC season (TD-2 EPAC). Likely very many to follow this summer….

 

 

 Thanks, snowman. A key will be to see whether or not 3.4/4 fall severely behind regions 3/1+2 to determine whether or not this will be a very strong form of E based. For those who prefer it be/not be overly E based like ‘97, you’ll want 3.4 to not warm too steadily/keep warming steadily through the summer/early fall overall.

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, snowman. A key will be to see whether or not 3.4/4 fall severely behind regions 3/1+2 to determine whether or not this will be a very strong form of E based. For those who prefer it be/not be overly E based like ‘97, you’ll want 3.4 to not warm too steadily/keep warming steadily through the summer/early fall overall.

If we are to believe the CFS then 1+2 will have a lower anomaly than 3.4 by later this summer. There’s a period of time where 4 is almost the same as 1+2. I still think the model forecasts for 3.4 to get well over 3.0 are crazy but I guess we’ll see. 

[GaWx]

 The MJO ended up going strongly into phase 8 (see image below) after all despite models a couple of weeks ago going only modestly into it and extended ensembles a month ago turning left in 7 toward the circle/missing 8. 

 Bastardi back in April predicted W Car/Gulf TCG in June based on his expectation the MJO would go into 8 despite the extended ensembles not showing that. He more often than not predicts early activity. So, that’s not unusual. But he was right about the MJO. Will he be right about the Atlantic basin June TCG? Models/ensembles are hinting at the chance for this late this week:

 

[GaWx]

 After a very strong warming the prior 5 days averaging a very impressive 0.1C/day, the latest OISST 3.4 finally slowed its warming although it still warmed slightly (.014). Now that the full week’s data is in, I’m guessing 3.4 will be warmed by 0.3C to +0.8C in tomorrow’s release:

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah, definitely an early developing El Niño. Early developing events tend to peak stronger, and it looks like the consensus supports a super peak (which does not surprise me given what the subsurface looked like a couple of months ago.

Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.

 

 

 

 

 Are we headed for another 2023-4 where SSTs are warm around Australia? Per JB, the models that showed for winter 2023-4 at H5 the mean E US trough/Aleutian low (most of them) didn’t have it that warm there and thus he blamed the unforecasted warmth around Australia.

[LakePaste25]

Looking at RONI, you can see a pretty clear and distinct El Niño and it’s only June!