2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares

all the people in this thread trying to wishcast away a super

[snowman19]

all the people in this thread trying to wishcast away a super

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Cansips was good last winter where the CFS 2 had a torch, but yea every Super Nino is warm. We will have to wait to see how warm

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting.

But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting.

But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth. 
 

 

 

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not meant to imply it necessarily will again.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.

The EPS weeklies actually did a decent job beginning in late October into November seeing the general 500mb pattern.

But the Western ridge verified much stronger skewing the total CONUS significantly warmer.

This allowed our area to beat the guidance to the colder side for a change. The first colder winter with above average snowfall in 11 years for our region made it really stand out against the sea of warmth since 2015-2016. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

Global temperatures will jump, unless we get an eruption of Mt. Rainier (and really soon).

Remember, Pinatubo erupted in mid-June of a developing strong el nino. Prevented a temperature jump from happening in 1992, and in fact temporarily caused a decrease in global temperatures. Also, led to one of the coldest summers on record CONUS in 1992, as well as contributed to the great winters of 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96 in the Eastern US.

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Global temperatures will jump, unless we get an eruption of Mt. Rainier (and really soon).

Remember, Pinatubo erupted in mid-June of a developing strong el nino. Prevented a temperature jump from happening in 1992, and in fact temporarily caused a decrease in global temperatures. Also, led to one of the coldest summers on record CONUS in 1992, as well as contributed to the great winters of 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96 in the Eastern US.

boy you people are desperate

[GaWx]

Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point.
 
 This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:

 

 

[GaWx]

OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:

[MJO812]

Should we cancel winter?

[roardog]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.

 

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

We all know this but its alwags good to remind ourselves....even with very similar indices, an analog is an analog. The weather itself will always play out differently.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

I would like to see this cold bias documented too. Bias would mean it regularly runs too warm/cold. Cansips was the only model close to the cold in the great lakes and northeast last winter. Does that mean every other model has a warm bias?

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares

Even though its clear who the trolls are, its a shocking lack of understanding how the actual weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you. 

There was a 3" snow Nov 14 and another 1.6" the 15th. I dont remember forecasts that long ago (I was young lol). Mid november to mid December, the 2nd half of january, and spurts of March were wintry. The rest sucked.

[forkyfork]

wow someone named michsnowfreak is a climate change denier. bones found in cemetery 

[michsnowfreak]

Ignorance really is bliss with the trolls.

[snowman19]

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm really curious to see how the North Pacific High responds. Should be very telling about larger scale things. 

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

What was the total precip that winter in central park?  I remember the crappy winter snow wise (5.5" total here) but cant remember if it was wet too.  

[so_whats_happening]

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Where's El Nino in the N Pacific? 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

[roardog]

50 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts 

[raindancewx]

On the May update, the Euro had Nino 4 getting to 2-2.5C above the 30-year mean in December. That's a huge body of water, and far less volatile than the more eastern areas of the Tropical Pacific.

The correlation isn't super strong - but with a very extreme reading, of say 30.5C+ or warmer - never achieved on record - you have to assume we get close to the long-term trend.

Your 29.5C+ Decembers are 1994, 2006 (both just under but over 29.4), 2009, 2015, 2018, 2023. Basically dead on to the correlation. Also consistent with Decembers following my hottest 10 Marches of the past 100 years. I'd go 2-4 degrees warmer in the warmer areas and 1-2 degrees colder in the white areas based on the extremity forecast for December.

 

 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite. 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.

Cansips was the only seasonal model showing any BN temps in the GL/east/NE. In that respect, it was, as you stated, the best in at least those areas. It was similar in 24/25 with a cooler forecast than other models. The Cfs2 and Euro have been boiler plate AN across the country the last 2 years. Speaking for myself, I don't care about the rest of the country or any other part of the world, fry or freeze.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts 

Well for starters I feel we are not easily getting rid of the -PDO state we will need to watch how this evolves into the end of summer. Around now through August has been the timeframe we have seen the -PDO dip hard over the last 2-3 years. I do believe if we can maintain where we are now we stand a chance at having a +PDO (weak) spike as we go into winter.

As for the ENSO state I have been very leery as far as overall strength of this event but currently it looks like a strong Nino is well supported, super not out of the question but I'm not sold on it yet. The -PDO will fight back on that potential and I personally can't quite place it but something feels a little off for super chances. I could be wrong with that and that is fine, a few tenths of a degree anomaly between strong to super is not going to make the world of difference on the overall effects we see come fall/winter over the Conus. Placement of ENSO forcing is the big one that needs to be watched with the second being to overall strength of the event, if we have further west VP and anomalies compared to past super events this becomes a different outcome for the forcing come winter.

I would also like to really see the uptick in tropical activity that tends to take place from El Nino events through much of the Pacific. If the central Pacific tends to have more of the storms this season versus EPAC we are on the path probably to a more Modoki style Nino. The waters off Baja have cooled quite a bit over the last few months this is that kick from the -PDO still in play as well as the cooler waters around Alaska.

As Bluewave states over and over, ad infinitum, the warm pool east of Japan is certainly still playing a role in how things progress and even much of the South Pacific is still very warm. In some ways we are starting to see some dual warm regions take place which is fascinating to see. You have competing factors still at play in the subtropics and mid latitudes that certainly will affect the outcome of this event. It still amazes me even with the warming of the central and EPAC tropical waters that MJO just halts at 7 and pushes to COD.

Lastly the Atlantic... Are we about to witness a reversal in the AMO? We also don't have the classic Atlantic La Nina taking place yet through the tropics this will also be something to monitor coming up.

If folks can make a forecast this far out and know almost close to what will happen come winter good on you but to me there are still many things that show a lot of uncertainty still exists. If I had to guess at an anomaly standpoint for this event we end up fairly similar in threshold to the 23-24 event. Nothing else other than the anomaly threshold.