40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994. 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong). Keep in mind: -There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak. -IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOF in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year.... On top of that, a model forecast for a strong +IOD in late summer and fall isn’t exactly a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Models were took quick with the insane El Nino ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: That doesnt have anything to do with what will occur 7 months from now. These long range forecasts have to end. They are rarely right. Its fun to do one though. so let's talk about what's actually happening now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: so let's talk about what's actually happening now hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year.... 1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep. 2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 PNA just not budging with this El Nino May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 20 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers every wx discussion gets ruined by snow people. unwanted plague rats 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: PNA just not budging with this El Nino May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically. “La Nino” pattern with the strong southern stream (relative to seasonal normals) that curves northward due to the se ridge. Could be due to the lingering warm pool that @bluewave refers to 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep. 2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD. Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background. Indian Ocean has probably warmed the most of every sea region of the globe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag. I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again Tell me you're a weenie without telling me- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 19 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers. Yea, I'm open to an alternate solution, but I think the default expectation should be continued attenuation of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 The EPS appears to be modeling less lingering convection in the west pac vs. the GEFS and CMCE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The EPS appears to be modeling less lingering convection in the west pac vs. the GEFS and CMCE. can really see where this makes a difference in +/- precip anomalies. With a traditional Nino look and more suppressed convection in the W pac on the EPS, you get the typical deep +precip anoms in the traditional Nino southern stream belt in the SE with -anoms in NE. whereas the GEFS, with its lingering convection in the W pac, has a more muted precip signal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Does anyone know where the SSTA data for each Nino region was moved to? There was a link which went back to 1950 and I think one that dated back even farther (definitely looking for this one). EDIT: got it...had an error in my link! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.” Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 5 minutes ago, roardog said: Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. In mid May vs 2026: -2023 was more E based -2015 was similar -1997 was more E based -1991 and 1982 were more W based https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997 ^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving. The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection. Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.” I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why? A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98? It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas. Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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