2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was unique that it combined with the MJO 6 getting the greatest absolute temperatures and departures all the way to the East Coast. 

That is a good point....like @LakePaste25said, maybe it just means the extreme anomalies are more relegated to the nation's mid-section.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

I'm surprised that 1963 and 2002 are there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

because the warm pool is further east 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

because the warm pool is further east 

Makes sense because it's also been too far west, along with everything else...just less so. I'm just saying, it may very well have been best, but it's not perfect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

 The BoM has been overshooting every near month forecast by a significant margin (0.4+) since April with it averaging 0.5 too high! Oct is joining the club:

 Here was the forecast for Oct as of just 2 weeks ago, which had Oct way up at +3.5:

 

 Look how far down the Oct 24th MTD is: only +2.8! So, full Oct is likely going to end up at no warmer than +3.0, which would make its Oct forecast verify 0.5+ too warm and thus continue the trend that started with April:

 This tells me that Nov will have a good chance to end up verifying ~0.5 too warm or at ~+3.2 vs its forecast of +3.7. Either Nov or Dec will very likely end up as the peak.

 So, if BoM monthlies were to peak at, say, +3.3, then the NOAA monthlies would likely come in cooler and peak at ~+3.0 and the trimonthlies would likely peak at ~+2.8, which is where I am currently (not much change from before).

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/25/2026 at 9:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably be warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.

I think we're in a cyclic dry pattern now. 65-66 72-73 and even a non nino like 01-02 would be my analogs 

 

 

On 10/25/2026 at 10:55 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I have a feeling that the la nina will be delayed to 28-29, like 88-89. It will still be very strong, but I think there will be a 2nd year of dissipation. 27-28 will probably be a weak to moderate el nino, which peaks early.

That won't stop next summer from being a very hot and dry summer.

 

On 10/26/2026 at 10:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2023 and 2001....  

Told you Ray lol

 

On 10/26/2026 at 10:56 AM, bluewave said:

We can say that the pattern the last few weeks has been reversed from the same time period back in 1997.

The strongest 500 mb trough and STJ is near the Southwest rather than the Southeast leading to the flooding and severe weather more focused in the Southwest. 

This is why the CONUS and in particular the Southeast has been so much warmer this October than it was back in 1997. 

The long range seasonal models from a month ago missed the more Southwest focused heavy rainfall. Same for the EPS weeklies beyond week 1 issued in early October.

So we’ll just have to monitor going forward to see if some elements of this early season pattern continue.

October 12th to 23rd 2026 500 mb pattern compared to 1997

 

October seasonal rainfall forecast issued in early September 

 

Verification

 

 

 

 

 

This is exactly why rainy winter forecasts are in trouble.  I see similarities to 01-02.

 

On 10/26/2026 at 1:02 PM, snowman19 said:

 

Non nino analogs like 01-02 also come into play.

 

On 10/26/2026 at 4:09 PM, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah that’s why in the most classic super Nino setups, the warmest anomalies occur the further north you go. 45-50 is below normal in Birmingham, but a major torch for INL. 

Below normal in the south because it's cloudy not because there's any arctic air around.

 

On 10/26/2026 at 7:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

Cyclical is why I use 65-66 and 72-73 as analogs and even a non nino analog like 01-02 because we entered a drier pattern in 2024.

 

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s the classic week 3 to 4 Euro default 500 mb pattern it was running with during November 2015. It didn’t start to see the actual December 2015 pattern until the month already started.

For much of the 2023-2024 super El Niño season it was doing the same thing even following the two rare SSW events for a super El Nino in January 2024 and March 2024.

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67133

• Description:
  Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur in the Arctic around six times per decade. During winter 2023/2024, two major SSWs occurred – a relatively rare event, having occurred on average only once per decade. Here, we summarise the evolution of the two SSWs, their dynamics and impacts on stratospheric chemical processing and tropospheric weather patterns. While both SSWs were displacement events, they evolved remarkably differently. The 16 January SSW was short‐lived and did not exert a canonical influence on surface weather. In contrast, the 4 March SSW followed a more typical evolution, albeit with only weak coupling to the troposphere.

 

Forecast

 

Verification

That kick started the dry pattern in 2024

 

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly.

So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño.

We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs  during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

It actually goes with 2001 fairly well

 

 

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.

It should be just like it is right now. Mild and sunny not rainy.

 

9 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I don’t see the purpose of arguing with someone over and over if you disagree with their forecast. if someone forecasts december 2015, so be it. you can check back later and see if it verifies.

Personally think a “super torch” outcome is more likely in the upper midwest instead of the NE because the STJ will extend much further eastward this time around, which means more coastal storms and ridge pushed more into Canada, both limiting factors. 

Dont be so sure, the STJ can be suppressed like it was in 65-66 and 72-73.

We are starting a new drier pattern. 2024 was the first sign.

 

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the CONUS are at +8 to +9 and it’s only October. None of the seasonal models were forecasting this from the September runs. Even the early October runs turned out too cool. 
 

 

They did not forecast the eastern dryness either

 

 

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

Yes.

 

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer. 

5c warmer, there is a search for earth like planets like this they are called superhabitable. So far one has been found but it's 1100 light years away.

 

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

In terms of most people who have had much lower early season heating demand with such high energy costs these days it’s a big help to their finances.

The average people I speak to off this forum has been very happy with how warm the winters have become since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

So this board is a real minority in terms of the general populace which would rather spend their winters in Florida than the Northern States. 

Internal migration has been to the sunbelt from the colder climates across the CONUS. But there has been shift to this pattern in the last few years. 

 

Yes and we already had a cold snowy winter last year. Why do these people need one every year?

 

7 hours ago, Cobalt said:

..except for the 2 billion or so folks who rely on stable glaciers for irrigation, water supply. Also the 1.5 billion or so people who live within 10km of a coastline.

That's partially true. However he's right astronomers consider earth like planets 5c warmer to be superhabitable. People will have to move away from the coast anyway and the government will stop new developments there and insurance companies won't cover it.

 

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I still think one or possibly two events could workout later in February with a second ssw. Even 72/73 which was horrendous in NYC had a big one in the southern mid Atlantic. So there is definitely precedent. I think we get hung up on 97/98 too much. That winter everything just went wrong.


.

There is a strong risk of suppression. 

 

5 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

weak Nino's turn out to be the best for us like 09-10,77-78,..also weak Nina's after strong Nino's..like 66-67. Maybe next winter.

And also 95-96 and 10-11 la ninas after El ninos are the best for hot summers and snowy winters which is why they go together. 

 

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know it sounds cliche, but awful forecasts are the best learning tools....it's all about perspective. You just have to own it and approach with an open mind.

Yes this reminds me of the 2004 ALCS 19-7 loss by the Red Sox. Look what happened after that.

 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s as if these two super El Niño are linked together through some shared underlying mechanism since the Nino 1+2 365 day mean SSTs never dropped below neutral following 2023-2024.

The trades also didn’t fully returned to normal north of the equator in the ENSO regions over the same period.

Much different than all the previous super El Niño events of the past.

 

After the 23-24 we kick started a very dry pattern dont be surprised if history repeats itself Chris.

 

4 hours ago, jconsor said:

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

Yes which is exactly why some non nino analogs should also be looked at.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Quality content in here today. A+

[OSUmetstud]

The overshooting in forecasts is because the SST anomalies are farther east, not because the Nino is weaker. Both BOM and ECMWF SST anomaly forecast has been excellent and if anything undershooting the SSTs in Nino 3. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The overshooting in forecasts is because the SST anomalies are farther east, not because the Nino is weaker. Both BOM and ECMWF SST anomaly forecast has been excellent and if anything undershooting the SSTs in Nino 3. 

Yes and no because the official ENSO strength is determined by Nino 3.4, which is what we’re referring to, rather than other regions. So, in terms of official strength, it technically is coming in weaker than these overshooting models. At the same time, it has become more E based than the models had due to the E regions coming in stronger.

[OSUmetstud]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes, but official ENSO strength is determined by Nino 3.4, which is what we’re referring to, rather than other regions. So, in terms of official strength, it technically is coming in weaker than these overshooting models. At the same time, it has become more E based than the models had due to the E regions coming in stronger.

This is not how the real word works though. The anomalous trades are causing the most east-based event on record. Pointing out that these models just have the peak SST anomalies 10, 20, or 30 degrees east of the Nino 3.4 is relevant and different than the whole event being weaker. 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is not how the real word works though. The anomalous trades are causing the most east-based event on record. Pointing out that these models just have the peak SST anomalies 10, 20, or 30 degrees east of the Nino 3.4 is relevant and different than the whole event being weaker. 

 
Yes, they are by a good margin and that’s important. I’m not disagreeing at all and don’t think anyone is. I’ve pointed out a number of times about 26-7 being the most E based on record. But at the same time, we’re right to also point out that 3.4 is coming in weaker than progged, which is interesting and a fact and makes it even more E based but also means it’s coming in weaker officially. So, in future references to the official strength of the 2026-7 Nino, it appears it will not be as strong in the official table as what the Euro and BoM were predicting.

[GaWx]

Per Eric Webb: interesting

I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.

I also wonder if there's a theoretical point where we shift the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool so far east that we actually don't end up getting a massive torch in December in the SE US & we just haven't observed an El Niño event strong/eastward shifted enough to challenge this idea. 

Perhaps, the trough that's normally buried in the Desert SW in December of a "normal" strong-super Nino bleeds eastward into the SE US instead, mirroring the eastward shift in convection/stronger subtropical jet stream forced by the extreme eastward shift in the mean warm pool. There are certainly some significant unknowns/wild cards on the table w/ this winter despite the normally high predictive power that comes with strong El Niños.

[EasternLI]

As of the overnight 00z runs. EPS with 98% of it's members with reversals. GEFS with 68% so both holding fairly steady from 12z yesterday.

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This ties in will with all of Chuck's research, as well as my analog composite.  Now, as I'm sure @forkyfork and @bluewavewith will point out faster than the rate at which the polar ice caps are melting, this doesn't guarantee much in terms of sensible weather...but it is what it is.

My guess is that all these stratospheric disruptions in recent years are linked to the Kara-Barents Seas warming and loss of sea ice there. Many recent studies how focused on this region.

Notice how in most of the recent summers the Pacific side has done better than the Atlantic side. While the Pacific side enjoyed the coldest start to summer in a while this year, there was record breaking warmth with low sea ice on Barents and Kara areas.

So we have had quite a run of SSWs and weakened vortices since 2020. The successful SSWs and weaker PV for winter weather fans were in January 2021 and November 2025.

These events were able to get the Pacific to back off. Even though it took nearly three months following the November 2025 weak PV in late February for our first KU in four years to finally click.

Fast forward to the disruption of the PV in February 2023 and we saw the disappointing result of what such an overpowering Pacific leading to the Baja trough that winter could do. 

Next up were the twin SSWs in January 2024 and March 2024 during our last weaker super El Niño. But we saw quick snap backs of the PV following those events with the very hostile Pacific continuing. 

Now this early PV disruption is forecast to have a quick rebound. So it’s quite possible that we see another weakening sometime from January to March.

But with such an extreme east based El Niño, it’s an open question how much success it will result in. Since it could very well follow the 2024 quick rebound script. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex

How Barents Sea Ice Affects the Stratosphere

• Heat and Moisture Flux: When sea ice retreats in the Barents-Kara Seas, open water exposes the relatively warm ocean to the atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This releases extra heat and moisture. [1]

• Planetary Wave Enhancement: The added heat creates local thermal anomalies that alter lower-atmosphere pressure patterns. This change enhances upward-propagating planetary waves (Rossby waves) from the troposphere into the stratosphere. [1, 2]

• Vortex Disruption: When these energetic waves break in the stratosphere, they deposit momentum and heat, weakening or distorting the high-altitude circumpolar winds known as the stratospheric polar vortex. In extreme cases, this triggers an SSW, where stratospheric temperatures jump tens of degrees in just a few days. [1, 2, 3]

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67133

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur in the Arctic around six times per decade. During winter 2023/2024, two major SSWs occurred – a relatively rare event, having occurred on average only once per decade. Here, we summarise the evolution of the two SSWs, their dynamics and impacts on stratospheric chemical processing and tropospheric weather patterns. While both SSWs were displacement events, they evolved remarkably differently. The 16 January SSW was short‐lived and did not exert a canonical influence on surface weather. In contrast, the 4 March SSW followed a more typical evolution, albeit with only weak coupling to the troposphere.

[csnavywx]

 

There are definitely issues with maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. CFS some of the worst among them. Ofc that won't affect its near term weekly forecasts, but it absolutely does have an effect later on.

Sliding through the 3.4 measurement window wasn't on the menu of plausible events before this year, but here we are.

[LakePaste25]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Per Eric Webb: interesting

I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.

I also wonder if there's a theoretical point where we shift the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool so far east that we actually don't end up getting a massive torch in December in the SE US & we just haven't observed an El Niño event strong/eastward shifted enough to challenge this idea. 

Perhaps, the trough that's normally buried in the Desert SW in December of a "normal" strong-super Nino bleeds eastward into the SE US instead, mirroring the eastward shift in convection/stronger subtropical jet stream forced by the extreme eastward shift in the mean warm pool. There are certainly some significant unknowns/wild cards on the table w/ this winter despite the normally high predictive power that comes with strong El Niños.

Nice to see Eric latch on to this idea! I’ve been saying this for awhile now and so has @40/70 Benchmark. The shutdown of MC forcing combined with stronger E pac forcing could enhance the eastward extent of the southern stream in the E US, which would keep the ridge further north in Canada. 

[EasternLI]

Nice big +EAMT leading to a Pacific jet extension on the 11-15 day EPS.

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Nice big +EAMT leading to a Pacific jet extension on the 11-15 day EPS.

All the ensembles have been heading toward a SE trough (or weakening of heights as a possible precursor of the trough) in one form/location/strength or another consistent with seasonal modeling. Of course, they maybe, like so often, early with the pattern. But it's encouraging to see it happening nonetheless.

[EasternLI]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All the ensembles have been heading toward a SE trough (or weakening of heights as a possible precursor of the troigh) in one form/location/strength or another consistent with seasonal modeling. Of course, they maybe, like so often, early with the pattern. But it's encouraging to see it happening nonetheless.

Would be consistent with a move towards a negative AO...

[forkyfork]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
Yes, they are by a good margin and that’s important. I’m not disagreeing at all and don’t think anyone is. I’ve pointed out a number of times about 26-7 being the most E based on record. But at the same time, we’re right to also point out that 3.4 is coming in weaker than progged, which is interesting and a fact and makes it even more E based but also means it’s coming in weaker officially. So, in future references to the official strength of the 2026-7 Nino, it appears it will not be as strong in the official table as what the Euro and BoM were predicting.

[forkyfork]

 

[LakePaste25]

Here we go. Massive extratropical WWB in the NH due to the N Pac cyclone. This will help flip the -PDO, and it’s why I say it’s a lagging indicator of ENSO, because the tropical coupling comes first, then the NHem coupling followed by the PDO.