2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of bump material. Same people forecasted a warm winter last year.

And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).

He blocked me on Twitter 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He blocked me on Twitter 

Did you scream "police brutality "?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is anyone subscribed to The World Climate Center paywall?

I made an inquiry about a trial, but haven't heard back.....I'm looking to access a data set...

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

I remember people saying we will not get anymore HECS because of the planet warming. Well last year said wait a minute. 

[forkyfork]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

~50% of the 12z eps with reversals at 10mb today. Increased % on the 12z GEFS today too from ~25% yesterday. Really curious how this all ends up. It doesn't automatically mean cold for anyone if that happens. Never does. It could mean torch... These things are never cut and dry. Just watching for now...
 

Exactly, the PV could end up splitting into Europe and eastern Siberia. And we still have a mega ridge on the east coast. I have seen so much crap on social media especially in the ski industry reposting click bait saying “PV split, here comes the snow”


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, the PV could end up splitting into Europe and eastern Siberia. And we still have a mega ridge on the east coast. I have seen so much crap on social media especially in the ski industry reposting click bait saying “PV split, here comes the snow”


.

This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

It actually went noticeably north from yesterday. 

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER

[cmillzz]

On 10/25/2026 at 5:07 PM, qg_omega said:

Should be warmer

Yeah, prob some +15 anomalies for the northern tier

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough). 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

That’s the classic week 3 to 4 Euro default 500 mb pattern it was running with during November 2015. It didn’t start to see the actual December 2015 pattern until the month already started.

For much of the 2023-2024 super El Niño season it was doing the same thing even following the two rare SSW events for a super El Nino in January 2024 and March 2024.

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67133

• Description:
  Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur in the Arctic around six times per decade. During winter 2023/2024, two major SSWs occurred – a relatively rare event, having occurred on average only once per decade. Here, we summarise the evolution of the two SSWs, their dynamics and impacts on stratospheric chemical processing and tropospheric weather patterns. While both SSWs were displacement events, they evolved remarkably differently. The 16 January SSW was short‐lived and did not exert a canonical influence on surface weather. In contrast, the 4 March SSW followed a more typical evolution, albeit with only weak coupling to the troposphere.

 

Forecast

 

Verification

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough). 

The strong low frequency (El Nino) forcing is totally different from what we saw back in 2015. The MC and eastern IO is completely shutdown and has been since spring, courtesy of the severely east-based super Nino, weak MJO, due to the Nino overwhelming everything, the entire 30C warm pool is moved all the way to 140W and the +IOD is reinforcing all of this. The ++PMM is also helping to lock it in

[EasternLI]

Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb. 

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

because + 12f is not happening the pv will eat into some of the warmth imo making a 12 f month very unlikely also other super ninos such as 72/82 did have warm decembers but they were not 2015 level 2015 is in fact an outlier

The exact locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS.  So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s the classic week 3 to 4 Euro default 500 mb pattern it was running with during November 2015. It didn’t start to see the actual December 2015 pattern until the month already started.

For much of the 2023-2024 super El Niño season it was doing the same thing even following the two rare SSW events for a super El Nino in January 2024 and March 2024.

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67133

• Description:
  Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur in the Arctic around six times per decade. During winter 2023/2024, two major SSWs occurred – a relatively rare event, having occurred on average only once per decade. Here, we summarise the evolution of the two SSWs, their dynamics and impacts on stratospheric chemical processing and tropospheric weather patterns. While both SSWs were displacement events, they evolved remarkably differently. The 16 January SSW was short‐lived and did not exert a canonical influence on surface weather. In contrast, the 4 March SSW followed a more typical evolution, albeit with only weak coupling to the troposphere.

 

Forecast

 

Verification

 That didn't take long

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 That didn't take long

If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?

Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt  passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt  passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do. 

Weeklies were cold last year and were correct. Not all the time, but more often than not. I specifically recall your posts in that regard.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt  passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do. 

You need the Pacific to back off in order for that to happen which is difficult with such an historic east based El Niño. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You need the Pacific to back off in order for that to happen which is difficult with such an historic east based El Niño. 

Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating.  Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough). 

Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective node around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The exact locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS.  So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

 

It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?

I think I have made it clear that I am skeptical of how impactful this strat warming will be and am more interested in what it may portend later in the season.