2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Beyond 15 days the weeklies have been defaulting to El Niño climatology. The forecast from the start of October illustrates this point.

Hopefully, they start releasing the new bias corrected versions of the weeklies to the public so we can see how much skill they have compared to uncorrected version. 

Notice how more of a spilt low pattern between the Aleutians and California developed than the default to October El Niño climatology. 
 

New October 19 to 26 forecast 

 

Old forecast defaulted to October El Niño climatology 

 

 

Not going to lie, it’s frustrating to not see the pattern materialize as I think it’s causing false hope that will ultimately get crushed and creating opportunities for grifting

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.

We are just going to have to wait until we get through December and January to see what happens in February.

The issue with the seasonal models is that they default to an El Niño climatology package in February which incudes many weaker events.

2023-2024 and 1997-1998 didn’t necessarily follow the typical February climatology.

This event is much stronger than both of those so we should probably keep expectations low and if we do better than those two years in February it’s a nice surprise. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are just going to have to wait until we get through December and January to see what happens in February.

The issue with the seasonal models is that they default to an El Niño climatology package in February which incudes many weaker events.

2023-2024 and 1997-1998 didn’t necessarily follow the typical February climatology.

This event is much stronger than both of those so we should probably keep expectations low and if we do better than those two years in February it’s a nice surprise. 

My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...

[GaWx]

 The most similar that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños:

2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker

2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026)

1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026

 

[stadiumwave]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The most similar past first half of Novs that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños:

2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker

2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026)

1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov the most similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026

 

 

Appreciate the research! 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not going to lie, it’s frustrating to not see the pattern materialize

It will be interesting to see if the new PBC EPS weeklies actually can do better than just defaulting to climatology after 15 days.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...

That’s why we have regional forums for regular weather discussion. You’re location averages double the amount of snow as urban coastal NYC. So I have no doubt you’re not getting shut out. 97/98 came as close to being NYCs first shutout as you can get. In fact the only 1”+ event fell during the spring and melted in hours.


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[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the new PBC EPS weeklies actually can do better than just defaulting to climatology after 15 days.

 

Yeah they had this problem the last 2 winters. Every week 4 map defaulted to a -PNA and SE ridge. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah they had this problem the last 2 winters. Every week 4 map defaulted to a -PNA and SE ridge. 

February 2025 was the exception when the Southeast Ridge verified much stronger right around storm time leading to the record snows ending up near Toronto.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s why we have regional forums for regular weather discussion. You’re location averages double the amount of snow as urban coastal NYC. So I have no doubt you’re not getting shut out. 97/98 came as close to being NYCs first shutout as you can get. In fact the only 1”+ event fell during the spring and melted in hours.


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You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average. I understand my climo...I wasn't assessing the possibility of being "shutout"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's another thing....the "default to El Nino climo" works both ways.....often they verify too cold because of that, but if they can also miss key developments independent of ENSO that lead to more wintry periods.

If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 2025 was the exception when the Southeast Ridge verified much stronger right around storm time leading to the record snows ending up near Toronto.

Makes sense. When we actually do get the ENSO climo, defaulting to ENSO means it will end up correct. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average.

No, I got it. I should have been more clear I guess and directed in general. I was more referencing the whole nature of the discussion in this thread. Obviously there is great analysis of the broader El Niño. But human nature includes some imby when it comes to snow specifically. So a guy in Michigan and a guy in New England (again no one in particular) have a near zero chance of being shutout. At that latitude there is wiggle room. Down here where since the early 90s we have had huge swings in totals year over year (50” one year then 10” the next) it’s a precarious situation. It’s not a zero chance nyc sees its first ever shutout with this event.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.

On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No, I got it. I should have been more clear I guess and directed in general. I was more referencing the whole nature of the discussion in this thread. Obviously there is great analysis of the broader El Niño. But human nature includes some imby when it comes to snow specifically. So a guy in Michigan and a guy in New England (again no one in particular) have a near zero chance of being shutout. At that latitude there is wiggle room. Down here where since the early 90s we have had huge swings in totals year over year (50” one year then 10” the next) it’s a precarious situation. It’s not a zero chance nyc sees its first ever shutout with this event.


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Yes, true....I think most consider that a tacit point given the audience we are dealing with, but noted, nonetheless.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Are you asking for the record relative trimonthly 3.4? Or the record relative weekly 3.4?

Weekly record of relative 3.4 is +2.9 (12/29/1982)

Trimonthly RONI record is +2.40 in DJF 1982-3.

Beating that record is not a slam dunk yet then. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.

It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño  conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño  conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.

Well, given how east-based this one is, I think you would want some deviation....

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, given how east-based this one is, I think you would want some deviation....

Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol

Right...because it had very similar deviations to the ones I expect with this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.

yup ...

... There's a synergistic potential there, too - adding a third, the -PDO hangover ... whereby three dominate modes, working together, produce more impact than scalar sum of their input.

What makes that trickier than the typical unknown quotient of synergistic result, is that one of these modes is new, and "newing" - in other words, a changing input.  It really takes the unknowable synergy, and makes it extra double top secret unknowable. Ha

It's tough tho...  Folks need to philosophically understand that "more impact" does not mean more scalar amplitude. It can... but impact in the context of ENSO pertains to 'how much does it force the system' - and by that, deviates it from a non-ENSO base.  A base that now is D(CC) ... see where this is going?

I mean it doesn't mean higher wind gusts and deeper floods, nor satisfying one's snow lusts .. A valid interpretation of these can simply mean more pervasive ...lasting longer ..etc.  If NYC go 120" of snow this winter and never snowed more than 8" in a single dose, that would/could likely be a synergistic improvement on just having an El Nino, or CC working alone with a -PDO hangover.  8" is actually manageable.  

Or... it could mean two consecutive yard-stick bombs totaling a National Guard deployment, sure.  

Part of the problem for those setting up expectations off El Nino dividends, or subtractions, either way, is that El Nino is not a weather forecast.   ...obviously there are those of us that are aware of that but you'd be surprised... heh  

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

Beating that record is not a slam dunk yet then. 

Agreed

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ...

... There's a synergistic potential there, too - whereby the those two dominate modes produce more impact than scalar sum of their input.

Which has been the case this year so far leading to much warmer than expected conditions than we typically see from such strong El Niños.