2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

There’s no doubt it’s most likely going to be a very mild winter for the country overall. Maybe I’m being picky but I don’t like how 97-98 kind of progressed backward of what you’d expect from a Nino with February being the warmest month that season. If you’re going to use 97-98 as your analog season and December ends up being the warmest month then it wasn’t 97-98 like at all IMO. Maybe everyone disagrees with me, I don’t know. lol

I agree 100%. Ive thought of that everytime I hear 97-98 brought up followed by expectations that Dec will be the warmest and Feb the coldest month. That is NOT 97-98 lol. Why is no one else mentioning that??? It was one of the oddest duck Ninos in that regard, and no one says a word about that.

For us, we know its going to snow. It always does. The more we salvage in Nov-Dec IMO will be the better chance for an ok snow season total by April. I also think theres no doubt we get some huge winter storms in the country. Will they hit us like in 1878 or 1992, or miss like in 1958 or 1983?

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

Simply saying it's going to be a mild winter as everyone has thought for MONTHS now, or that it resembles a past year (97-98, which as @roardog says this year isnt following sensible weather-wise at all) is not a winter forecast. What @40/70 Benchmark does, thats a winter forecast. 

[forkyfork]

"it's going to snow. it always does," he said as he stared blankly in the psych ward

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree 100%. Ive thought of that everytime I hear 97-98 brought up followed by expectations that Dec will be the warmest and Feb the coldest month. That is NOT 97-98 lol. For us, we know its going to snow. It always does. The more we salvage in Nov-Dec IMO will be the better chance for an ok snow season total by April. I also think theres no doubt we get some huge winter storms in the country. Will they hit us like in 1878 or 1992, or miss like in 1958 or 1983?

Do agree,looks nothing like 1997 respective to today

[snowman19]

Do agree,looks nothing like 1997 respective to today

Yep. This El Niño has no resemblance whatsoever to 1997 lol

[LakePaste25]

Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño. 

In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1983 and 1878 not being far off. When also considering that 1998 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1983 and 1878 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these. Your thoughts?

[michsnowfreak]

What an upside down world where someone who knows nothing about how weather works gets a red tag, meanwhile much of the rest of this thread is filled with so much knowledge from people who simply are hobbyists.

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño. 

Id take 1877-78 again. Nice Jan/Feb after a slow start. Never even knew there was enough documentation to confirm a 1790s el nino episode.

[mitchnick]

Anyone notice that persistent block on the ensembles that's been hanging out over northern Russia?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101612&fh=102

As for winter, I  know it will be great imby.....the Dodgers lost!!! 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Id take 1877-78 again. Nice Jan/Feb after a slow start. Never even knew there was enough documentation to confirm a 1790s el nino episode.

The Spanish colonies on the west coast of South America were well established by 1790 and they kept meticulous records. Especially in regards to water temps and how it affects the sardine fishery off of Peru.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only rEAL weak spot is solar.

[bluewave]

My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We disagree but that’s ok

The season. may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

I never would have guessed. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive

No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I never would have guessed. Lol

I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state from the late 2020s into the 2030s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1983 and 1878 not being far off. When also considering that 1998 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1983 and 1878 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these. Your thoughts?

AGREE.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state.

Agreed, we saw that after 23. The question is, is the leap even larger this time.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.

[mitchnick]

Just now, bluewave said:

I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state.

I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow.

Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model.  But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't  lose with that "forecast."

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow.

Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model.  But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't  lose with that "forecast."

The entire CONUS should be warmer than all the guidance with the warmest anomalies along the Northern Tier states right to the East Coast.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The entire CONUS should be warmer than all the guidance with the warmest anomalies along the Northern Tier states right to the East Coast.

Thanks for narrowing it down. 

And which model was that and which month's forecast?

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Anyone notice that persistent block on the ensembles that's been hanging out over northern Russia?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101612&fh=102

As for winter, I  know it will be great imby.....the Dodgers lost!!! 

 

Yeah, I noticed this too. That's Ural blocking. That block is actually a good feature to see show up if the hope is for a weakened PV this winter. Will be quite interesting to see if it keeps showing up. Especially throughout November. In fact, case in point, the weeklies today showing a little something and it's likely related to that same block currently modeled.

 

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082097

"This study explores the early-winter atmospheric response to Ural blocking anomalies in November, using a nudging technique to constrain the temperature and dynamics in a high-top atmospheric model. Persistent Ural blocking anomalies in November are associated with a warm Arctic/cold Siberia pattern and increased upward planetary waves entering the stratosphere, leading to a warming of the polar vortex. This stratospheric response then propagates in the troposphere, leading to increased occurrence of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in December and January."

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks for narrowing it down. 

And which model was that and which month's forecast?

The Euro is probably the warmest of the seasonal guidance. Remember that model was much too cool going into the 2023-2024 winter.

This winter forecast is even warmer than that one was. So my guess is significantly warmer than the current Euro is showing.

 

 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is probably the warmest of the seasonal guidance. Remember that model was much too cool going into the 2023-2024 winter.

This winter forecast is even warmer than that one was. So my guess is significantly warmer than the current Euro is showing.

 

 

I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?