2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, bncho said:

what are we even doing at this point

 

 

 

mass snow autism psychosis 

[cmillzz]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

We know you think it will not snow this winter. 

You are against the world in that regard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

Autism, sure....psychosis I think is a better fit for you, who ignores any reference to previous incorrect forecasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, cmillzz said:

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

I only see one side here engaging in name calling, though....."defensiveness" is fine if you competently defend your position. I just presented a wealth of information on why I feel the mean convective forcing will be a bit west of what many may suspect this season, lending to some pattern variability....it was never addressed, instead followed by some vapid, mindless insults. I understand and accept the factors that may lead to a vey mild and relatively snowless season, but I don't feel that is reciprocated....if you disagree, then fine.

Same crap last year, and the offenders never address the "L", instead, perpetually resisting any opportunity for growth and opting to assume the same, close-minded approach yet again.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

Exactly. But the irony is that the person you quoted that to is the one who needs to hear that more than anyone in this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Fortunately there are still alternative ways to view how the QBO is doing. The FU Berlin site (which you and some others may remember) was one of the better datasets until those updates were discontinued. Thankfully the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has taken that same dataset and decided to continue the updates to it from where they left off. The raw data is also available there in the same format the Berlin site used to use. Here's the link if anyone is interested:

 

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/english/807.php

 

I'm having difficulty accessing the data...I didn't have that issue on the other site, but on the site you seem to have to download it, which is what I am having trouble with.

[GaWx]

 If the IOD guru Adam were still posting (will he ever come back?), I’d now be asking him about the potential very strong +IOD that’s been expected this autumn. It clearly is positive, but it isn’t strong per BoM (at least not yet as it still has til Nov to see if it will jump way up based on the past):

 As of 10/4/26, the weekly was +0.6. Note that the peak for 2026 so far was actually way back on 3/8/26 (+0.9). Then it fell back to 0 in May, but was then followed by a general rise til now.

 How does 2026’s +0.6 compare to some past Oct 4ths for Ninos/warm neutral along with 2 Ninas that had an unusual +IOD?

2026 +0.6

2023 +1.8

2019 +1.8

2018 +0.1

2015 +1.1

2014 +0.1

2012 +0.1

2011 +0.6 (mod Nina)

2009 -0.3

2008 +0.2 (weak Nina)

 ——————

 As one can see, Nino 2023 and warm neutral 2019 both had triple 2026! Also, Nino 2015 was nearly double. In addition, Nina 2011 was the same! (Aside: Nino 2009 was still negative although it had an unusually very late IOD peak of +0.7 on 1/4/2010.)

 So, as I said, 2026 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire so far regarding a +IOD. I’ll keep following.

 Any thoughts?

————————

Weekly IOD 2008+:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm having difficulty accessing the data...I didn't have that issue on the other site, but on the site you seem to have to download it, which is what I am having trouble with.

They seem to have downloadable archive files in addition to 3 text files which can be viewed directly on a web browser. With the downloadable ones also containing the text files. I thought that was weird too. Not sure what the purpose of that is, but I'm sure they have their reasons. The following 3 links are the text links which will be displayed on a web browser.

 

Full list of data (since 1953): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

 

Singapore data only (since 1987): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore.dat

 

Singapore data for 2026 only: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore2026.dat

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yes, but if you use the slide function to put the forecast in motion, the cooler waters are making a bee-line east. Should they continue after the end of the forecast period (7/27), you'd probably at least end up with a La Nada next winter, if not a weak Niña imho. I guess the question then is why wouldn't the cooler waters continue east? 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2026101100&fh=1

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS. 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

They seem to have downloadable archive files in addition to 3 text files which can be viewed directly on a web browser. With the downloadable ones also containing the text files. I thought that was weird too. Not sure what the purpose of that is, but I'm sure they have their reasons. The following 3 links are the text links which will be displayed on a web browser.

 

Full list of data (since 1953): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

 

Singapore data only (since 1987): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore.dat

 

Singapore data for 2026 only: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore2026.dat

Thanks. 50mb data aligns pretty well, but 30mb data is off from the old site.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If the IOD guru Adam were still posting (will he ever come back?), I’d now be asking him about the potential very strong +IOD that’s been expected this autumn. It clearly is positive, but it isn’t strong per BoM (at least not yet as it still has til Nov to see if it will jump way up based on the past):

 As of 10/4/26, the weekly was +0.6. Note that the peak for 2026 so far was actually way back on 3/8/26 (+0.9). Then it fell back to 0 in May, but was then followed by a general rise til now.

 How does 2026’s +0.6 compare to some past Oct 4ths for Ninos/warm neutral along with 2 Ninas that had an unusual +IOD?

2026 +0.6

2023 +1.8

2019 +1.8

2018 +0.1

2015 +1.1

2014 +0.1

2012 +0.1

2011 +0.6 (mod Nina)

2009 -0.3

2008 +0.2 (weak Nina)

 ——————

 As one can see, Nino 2023 and warm neutral 2019 both had triple 2026! Also, Nino 2015 was nearly double. In addition, Nina 2011 was the same! (Aside: Nino 2009 was still negative although it had an unusually very late IOD peak of +0.7 on 1/4/2010.)

 So, as I said, 2026 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire so far regarding a +IOD. I’ll keep following.

 Any thoughts?

————————

Weekly IOD 2008+:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

He just posted on X that +IOD is coupling with El Nino and constructively interfering...mentions nothing about strength lol

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS. 

 

 

 

 

Euro forecast looks similar to Cfs2 in 3, 3.4 and 4 interestingly. I guess we wait to see what happens.

[mitchnick]

Euro Copernicus temps D, J, F & M. Precip AN along the east coast similar to Euro seasonal. 

[LakePaste25]

Way out there but the sub seasonals begin to show more of a cool season Nino H5 pattern in November. 

 

[Keith Central PA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS. 

 

 

 

 

CFS forecasts a La Nina by next July

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

CFS forecasts a La Nina by next July

Still has an east based El Nino continuing in Nino 1+2 and 3 with strong WWBs by June. But notice how the CFS is much too cool currently in Nino 1+2. So we’ll probably have to rely more on the Euro which is closer to the current Nino 1+2.
 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS. 

 

 

 

 

If this happens, then I like 1983 as an analog for next spring summer (as Nino 1+2 really warmed in the spring of 1983), and 1987-88 as an analog for next fall and winter (robust 2nd year el nino that peaked early in the season).

 

[MJO812]

 

 

[LakePaste25]

 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks. 50mb data aligns pretty well, but 30mb data is off from the old site.

 I agree about 30 mb being off in amplitude but the patterns as you’ll see below are very similar. Thus, that allows me to still predict with a very high level of confidence that a solid +QBO is in store for all of this winter.

 

 Here are the tabular 30 mb QBO values since Jan ‘25 for the table that stopped updating (PSL):

2025   12.11   10.55   11.82    6.94   -4.59  -13.72  -19.99  -22.28  -24.26  -24.65  -25.35  -26.92
2026  -25.51  -23.13

 

 To compare, here are the tabular 30 mb values from the QBO link that @EasternLIposted this morning for the still updating site (ATMO) (bolded are the ones we can’t compare to old table, 3/26+)

2025   10.3      7.3      8.4      4.7     -16.5   -25.4     -27.8     -29.2    -30.5    -30.8    -30.0     -29.7.  
2026     -29.2  -31.2  -30.9   -7.0    5.7
   7.5        13.3     11.5    17.6
 

ATMO graph closeup for 2023+: jibes 100% with their textual values (actually the entire graph back to 1953 jibes):

 My observations in comparing the 30 mb tables of ATMO to PSL since 1953:

-ATMO sometimes is slightly faster than PSL in switching phases, but the average is only a half month faster in switching from positive to negative (minimal). So, phase switching times are very similar.

-ATMO almost always lower than PSL when negative: I counted 20 cycles out of 32 with ATMO negative dips <-30 vs none for PSL

-ATMO least negative dip -25.0 in 8/1954 when PSL dipped only down to -14.53, also their least negative dip since 1953

-Lowest ATMO: -35.5 in 9/1996 (when PSL was -26.02)

-Lowest PSL: -29.55 in 11/2005 (when ATMO was -33.3)

-ATMO higher peak than PSL 29 cycles out of 33: I count 17 cycles out of 33 with ATMO peaks of 16+ vs none for PSL

-Highest ATMO: +22.0 in 1/1953 (when PSL was -2.94)

-Highest PSL: 15.62 in 6/1995 (when ATMO was 15.1)

-So, ATMO cycles have higher amplitude than PSL though very similarly timed

-# of months in positive periods in ATMO lasting 10+ months: 32 of 33. Longest on record is 18 months.

———————

 The last stat tells me with near 100% confidence that all of winter ‘26-7 will be positive on ATMO. Why? The first positive month in the current phase was May of ‘26. The 10th month would be Feb of ‘27. Also, 22 of 33 positive phases lasted 12+ months with the avg length of a positive phase on ATMO being 13 months.
 
 Thus, my best guess as to the final month in the current positive phase per ATMO is within one month of May of ‘27. More than likely Feb of ‘27 will on ATMO still be >+10. The latest I can see the last positive month is Oct of ‘27 based on the 18 month record.

[bncho]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

we talk about snow autism in here but the guy looks like he has real autism if u look at his other videos

[EasternLI]

Here are the main points from the CPC MJO update posted today. No surprises, el nino is the main event. With a notable mention of the +IOD potentially beginning to show itself now as of late.

 

[GaWx]

 Following up on my last post (QBO):

 Based on my expectation of each of DJF being at +8+ QBO and also within a mature +QBO phase as opposed to near the start of it, here are the best QBO/ENSO analogs in order of quality taking into account the timing within the +QBO phase, the QBO amp, and the Nino strength:

-2015-6 strongest analog: ~identical QBO timing, super-Nino

-1982-3 super-Nino and similar QBO amp but QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-1957-8 not quite super-Nino, QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase and weaker JF amp

-1987-8 Nino only mod & 2nd year and QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-2006-7 easily weakest of these analogs because only weak Nino and QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase along with only +1 Feb QBO