2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Hey guys I think it might be high time to start thinking about a 2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino Part 2

topic! This puppy is going on nearly two hundred pages lol.

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina.

The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are other factors

It's well coupled.  Just look at how dead the hurricane season has been. 

Strong aleutian low pattern will set up and we'll get flooded with pacific air all winter. 

If anything we've been much warmer than previous strong Ninos thus far for the summer and now September due to CC effects.  I'm seeing a warmer version of 97/98 for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's well coupleds.  Just look at how dead the hurricane season has been. 

Strong aleutian low pattern will set up and we'll get flooded with pacific air all winter. 

If anything we've been much warmer than previous strong Ninos thus far for the summer and now September due to CC effects.  I'm seeing a warmer version of 97/98 for us. 

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A record breaking east based Nino is a death sentence.  

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

[LakePaste25]

BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics. 

 

Trying to figure out when that region became the northern Hemisphere....

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.

Again...you want to deduce that it will couple in the mad latitudes of the N hem based on what is taking place in the s Hem, fine...different point. I agree with that to a large extent, but that doesn't change what is going on right now.

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.

It's a pretty safe assumption that unless otherwise specified, comments in this thread pertain to the N HEM, since that's where we live. If you would like to discuss the S Hem, then the onus in on you to make that known. @SnoSki14originally commented on implications for N HEM winter, which is what prompted my reply.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

The ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere     no question.

 

[olafminesaw]

5 hours ago, Jebman said:

Hey guys I think it might be high time to start thinking about a 2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino Part 2

topic! This puppy is going on nearly two hundred pages lol.

What is this the 90s? All out of space on the thread, turn the cassette over to side B?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere     no question.

 

Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.

Whether this is the case on January 15 ... who knows.  But this is an apparent unique - perhaps historically so - state of affairs we are in heading into Autumn. When comparing other warm ENSOs that were anywhere near peers with this one, the PDO was in better agreement.  Those being 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 very warm events. 

But, +.7 isn't 1.0   The offset .3 isn't exactly a trivial anticorrelation value.   30% of PDO/ENSOs didn't want to cooperate ( according to CDC).  The qualitative difference being ... it is easier on intuition to see a weaker warm ENSO being more likely to anticorrelate - break downs in the machinery in weaker gradients..etc.  However, very powerful ones would instinctively dominate the hemisphere because tall heat S abuts canonical seasonal lowering hgts N, and that's proficient coupling. That's the '82/'97/'15 events.  This ENSO is (presumably) as powerful ( even in a RONI dimming consideration ... it's just too overwhelming? ) yet having this over-arcing -PDO is thus uncharted water ( pun hopefully annoying ... )

It's hard to say how that will impact the circulation 'scaffolding' of the hemisphere, should it persist.  This latter bold being a key question.

There is a modest pos correlation between the PDO and EPO in November, which strengthens significantly through the winter.  This is intriguingly implicating for both warm and cool N/A.   In a shortened planetary wave lengths, the -EPO dives the mean height anomaly distribution over the west. This correlates/teleconnects to ridging/+geopotential hgts 80W.  But in the winter, when the wave lengths are necessarily long as a physical response to high seasonal velocity foot, the -EPO tends to mean the lower heights progress E fairly quickly.  That's the reason -EPOs cause cold snaps. However, the STJ "should be" lurking over TX into the TV and lower MA; so what then should this mean if an ongoing -PDO/-EPO keeps sending in knuckle achers... This sort of 'unicorn' scenario has been discussed among some of us, already.  It's not confident enough to predict... for one, we don't know if this -PDO/atmospheric circulation mod over the arc of the N. Pac will continue.   You know, that big winter storm - the first of the two - that took place last winter is a reasonable implication/typology.  That January one was a broad continental scale overrunning event really.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whether this is the case on January 15 ... who knows.  But this is an apparent unique - perhaps historically so - state of affairs we are in heading into Autumn. When comparing other warm ENSOs that were anywhere near peers with this one, the PDO was in better agreement.  Those being 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 very warm events. 

But, +.7 isn't 1.0   The offset .3 isn't exactly a trivial anticorrelation value.   30% of PDO/ENSOs didn't want to cooperate ( according to CDC).  The qualitative difference being ... it is easier on intuition to see a weaker warm ENSO being more likely to anticorrelate - break downs in the machinery in weaker gradients..etc.  However, very powerful ones would instinctively dominate the hemisphere because tall heat S abuts canonical seasonal lowering hgts N, and that's proficient coupling. That's the '82/'97/'15 events.  This ENSO is (presumably) as powerful ( even in a RONI dimming consideration ... it's just too overwhelming? ) yet having this over-arcing -PDO is thus uncharted water ( pun hopefully annoying ... )

It's hard to say how that will impact the circulation 'scaffolding' of the hemisphere, should it persist.  This latter bold being a key question.

There is a modest pos correlation between the PDO and EPO in November, which strengthens significantly through the winter.  This is intriguingly implicating for both warm and cool N/A.   In a short planetary wave length, the -EPO dives the means height anomaly distribution over the west. This correlates/teleconnects to ridging/+geopotential hgts 80W.  But in the winter, when the wave lengths are necessarily long as a physical response to high seasonal velocity foot, the -EPO tends to mean the lower heights progress E fairly quickly.  That's the reason -EPOs cause cold snaps. However, the STJ "should be" lurking... this sort of 'unicorn' scenario has been discussed among some of us, already.  It's not confident enough to predict... for one, we don't know if this -PDO/atmospheric circulation mod over the arc of the N. Pac will continue. 

I suspect the PDO will average pretty near neutral this season..we'll see, which could leave us prone to some interludes of cross polar flow, between which we nape.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

TAO/Triton trying to pop +11c in the subsurface. Maybe in the next few days... To the best of my knowledge, we've never had a +11c subsurface reading before. That's nearly +20F, and it's still progressing warmer. 

[EasternLI]

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

 Thanks for posting this.
 
 For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why?

1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile!

2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0!

3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26:

 

So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022!

Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile:

 

 Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

 

[bluewave]

Nino 3  at +3.878 is currently showing the most anomalous warmth relative to all-time records for any time of year.

The Euro and CFS both have the Nino 3 peak in December well above the previous 1997 and 1982 records.

There is so much accumulated warmth on the long range CFS, that it’s showing El Niño conditions lingering into next June.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

16SEP2026     25.3 4.6     28.6 3.8     29.6 3.0     29.6 1.0

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7

29DEC1982     26.1 2.7     28.5 3.2     29.1 2.6     28.8 0.4

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting this.
 
 For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why?

1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile!

2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0!

3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26:

 

So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022!

Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile:

 

 Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

 

Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3  at +3.878 is currently showing the most anomalous warmth relative to all-time records for any time of year.

The Euro and CFS both have the Nino 3 peak in December well above the previous 1997 and 1982 records.

There is so much accumulated warmth on the long range CFS, that it’s showing El Niño conditions lingering into next June.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

16SEP2026     25.3 4.6     28.6 3.8     29.6 3.0     29.6 1.0

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7

29DEC1982     26.1 2.7     28.5 3.2     29.1 2.6     28.8 0.4

 

 

I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....

I was thinking it looks like a Modoki La Nina/east-based El Nino at the same time

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....

It would be interesting to know what the specific mechanism was that caused the WWBs to become stronger than 2023-2024 and even 1997-1998.

While the CFS is outside its effective range by next June, it still has strong WWBs going. The CanSIPS indicates the same even though the SOI forecast relaxes.

While it’s still too early in the game to know exactly what is happening, would be impressive if some type of bigger shift in the Pacific equatorial trade wind regime is occurring outside the usual ENSO dynamics. 

The WWBs north of the equator never fully relaxed in EPAC following the 2023-2024 El Niño event. 
 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be interesting to know what the specific mechanism was that caused the WWBs to become stronger than 2023-2024 and even 1997-1998.

While the CFS is outside its effective range by next June, it still has strong WWBs going. The CanSIPS indicates the same even though the SOI forecast relaxes.

While it’s still too early in the game to know exactly what is happening, would be impressive if some type of bigger shift in the Pacific equatorial trade wind regime is occurring outside the usual ENSO dynamics. 
 

 

 

 

 

I think the solar cycle plays into that to some extent....descending solar approaching peak geomag is prime-time for super El Nino...it's not a coincidence. Now, add the unprecedented degree of OHC into the mix and it's a perfect storm for mother nature to make a max effort at heat redistribution.

I know @Stormchaserchuck1has often mused that these higher-end El Nino deals shouldn't be as skewed towards +NAO as they are, theoretically speaking....well, it make sense given that they usually coincide with near peak geomag during descending solar. I get the sample size issue, but I think we need to make an effort to think beyond that as a community, and the solar angle makes sense...only super Nino that did not occur in this portion of the cycle was 1997.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the solar cycle plays into that to some extent....descending solar approaching peak geomag is prime-time for super El Nino...it's not a coincidence. Now, add the unprecedented degree of OHC into the mix and it's a perfect storm for mother nature to make a max effort at heat redistribution.

I know @Stormchaserchuck1has often mused that these higher-end El Nino deals shouldn't be as skewed towards +NAO as they are, theoretically speaking....well, it make sense given that they usually coincide with near peak geomag during descending solar. I get the sample size issue, but I think we need to make an effort to think beyond that as a community, and the solar angle makes sense...only super Nino that did not occur in this portion of the cycle was 1997.

It’s as if there was an underlying mechanism linking the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events together.

Notice how Nino 1+2 never fully returned to La Niña following that event.

Plus we got the Nino-like pattern in December 2025 with the small warming in Nino 1+2 and record +PNA for a December La Niña. 
 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.

 Thanks, Ray. Indeed, that 9/21/26 graph has the only significant pocket of -AAM centered at our latitudes as you noted. However, I assume you realize that these lat. based graphs are quite fluid, and thus it could look quite different at our latitudes within just a few days for all anyone knows. Also, the extremely + tropical latitudes overall have little choice but to drop back at least some soon. I’ll try to follow these daily from this point on.

 Here’s the brand new update for 0Z on 9/22/26: note that the -AAM pocket at our latitudes is still there and still the most significant -AAM area but isn’t as negative. Also, although 52N-61N has dropped, 63N to 90N is significantly more positive vs yesterday with a peak of +2 SDs at 78N vs +1.3 yesterday:

Compare to yesterday’s:

 

 The corresponding global mean for 9/22/26 is as expected per prior days’ CFSv2 progs on its last legs of the extreme level of +4+ although it fwiw keeps a very strong +3+ mean on all but a few days in early Oct:

[George001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3  at +3.878 is currently showing the most anomalous warmth relative to all-time records for any time of year.

The Euro and CFS both have the Nino 3 peak in December well above the previous 1997 and 1982 records.

There is so much accumulated warmth on the long range CFS, that it’s showing El Niño conditions lingering into next June.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

16SEP2026     25.3 4.6     28.6 3.8     29.6 3.0     29.6 1.0

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7

29DEC1982     26.1 2.7     28.5 3.2     29.1 2.6     28.8 0.4

 

 

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño.