2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September. 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34:

2026   6   1.07
2026   7   1.33
2026   8   1.67

 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified:

 

 How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record:

2026 +1.67

2015 +1.58

1997 +1.85

1987 +1.27

1982 +0.93

1972 +1.47

1965 +1.57

1957 +1.36

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. 

If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. 

The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.

 

[forkyfork]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Name caller classic. 

what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, forkyfork said:

what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol

So that is your best, name calling....ok

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high.