2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it isn't, since the PDO has yet to respond to said record breaking El Niño.

It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac. 

[LakePaste25]

That area near Japan is probably cooked for the foreseeable future, which is one reason I would expect it to flip back to - next spring or summer. Too mu ch subsurface warmth there and a Nino for 1 year won’t eradicate that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac. 

That isn't my point.....I'm not saying that it necessarily should have flipped by now, but considering what has gone on over the course of the past decade, nothing is a foregone conclusion with respect to to the PDO. I'm with you on that, but it's not a non-issue, as you seem to imply.

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 9/1/2026 at 7:22 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 

We are 

[ensonerd1233e343]

13 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

Can some one provide me with the link to see this forecast? I was on the site looking around but could not find it. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/

[ensonerd1233e343]

10 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles. 

Thank you 

People are overthinking the winter

[ensonerd1233e343]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it isn't, since the PDO has yet to respond to said record breaking El Niño.

yea but it will once the aluteian low gets going in mid to late northen fall

also even if it didnt that wouldnt meaningfully affect the winter fcst 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

yea but it will once the aluteian low gets going in mid to late northen fall

also even if it didnt that wouldnt meaningfully affect the winter fcst 

I think so, as well...however, that isn't the absolute certainty that it was 20-30 years ago.

If you don't feel as though the development of a massive Aleutian low would affect the winter forecast, then I'm not sure what to tell you...you are essentially disregarding the extra tropical influence of ENSO, which isn't particularly wise during the strongest event in recorded history. I couldn't disagree more, especially considering how the entire Pacific basin has been predisposed to a cool ENSO orientation for the past decade. Take a look at winter 2023-2024 and consider how that winter would have been different with a bonafide Aleutian low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Thank you 

People are overthinking the winter

Extremely doubtful considering our level of skill and overall understanding of seasonal forecasting remains in it's infancy.

[GaWx]

 CFSv2 progs for relative Nino 3.4 trimonthly peak continue to cool significantly as the overall flatness of Nino 3.4 still persists (much longer than earlier progged on the models for 3.4):

Mean of runs Aug 4-13: OND +3.5 (when the progged peak was at a peak)

 

Mean of runs Aug 14-23: OND back down to +3.25

Mean of runs Aug 24-Sep 2: OND down even further to +3.1! It hasn’t been this low since the 10 day means of late June:

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.

Def. take my exact numbers with a grain of salt this year.

[GaWx]

Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34:

2026   6   1.07
2026   7   1.33
2026   8   1.67

 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified:

 

 How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record:

2026 +1.67

2015 +1.58

1997 +1.85

1987 +1.27

1982 +0.93

1972 +1.47

1965 +1.57

1957 +1.36

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/3/2026 at 9:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless of the total picture, there exists absolutely astronomical, extraordinarily high potential during shorter intervals that belies what should be a mild seasonal mean....the devil is in the details and it's easy to miss the period when all hell broke loose when you only view a snapshot composite of a winter's life. Almost akin to considering a middle-aged guy like me....46 yrs, old, decent career, 4 beautiful children and an aggregate of circumstances that embodies a ho-hum mid-life...sure, but when viewing a 46-year composite mean, it's easy to miss the US Marine that collected 2 OUIs and came within a toad's whisker of having it all end long before any of my kids were even so much as a glint in my eye.

This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place.

Most anomalous snowfall of my life occurred in April 1997, which was an otherwise bottom-dwelling season.