2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

Yea prolonged cold will most likely not going to happen especially in the first half of winter.  Im fine with that. 

Dont want suppression depression 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

[Keith Central PA]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

[Keith Central PA]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

That and 6 hours of nearly nonstop thunder snow imby...along with the 4" that fell between Noon and 1pm. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

It also snowed a few weeks before Christmas in 1982,,NYC got 3 inches.Christmas day was in the 60's and Denver had a blizzard.Also in December 1997, there was a dusting of snow on December 27th and a few days later inland PA and New York had a snowstorm. The coast nothing but rain.