2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

It was the snowiest in over a decade in NYC ( over 40 inches )

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was the snowiest in over a decade in NYC ( over 40 inches )

It was wintry here, excellent thick ice cover on lakes and persistent snowcover. But actual snowfall wasnt impressive - BECAUSE of the cold, many storms tracked south. In fact, Detroit (39.5") received less snow than NYC (43.4") for just the 2nd time the past 20 years. Snow was in the air and on the ground near constantly though, so A+ scenary wise.

Despite the slightly below avg snowfall, the winter ranked as "Severe" on the AWSI, a testament to the deep cold and lasting snowpack. It was one of those winters that the public perceived as harsh. My mom (a fellow winter lover) loved how every night looking out at her backyard the snow shimmered like a million diamonds. 

At NYC, the 43 days of 1"+ snowcover ranked 17th most since 1912. So, 115 years, 16 years had more snowcover and 98 years had less (so much for there always being snow on the ground when old timers were kids ). At Detroit, the 63 days with 1"+ snowcover ranked 28th most since 1908.

Moving into this Nino, these are great examples why the snow-lover in me doesnt always want to see a deep blue map. So many moving parts for the coming winter, which is why I follow this thread with such interest. I do expect an overall subpar winter by MI standards, but theres so many different ways that could (or could not) happen. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

PDO changes afoot?

 

Well, maybe there are... then again maybe there aren't lol, but if we can get something like the 12z AIFS-ENS below. It would probably keep going the right direction. Start seeing this kind of GOA low on a regular basis would do wonders for the eastern portion of it. Do that plus get some tropical cyclones to take a bite out of that north Pacific warmth that has pooled there from the persistent ridging in that area. Combined, that would go a long way towards transforming that index. As a side note, that's part of the reason I would like to see a couple recurving typhoons through that region. Some guidance is hinting at maybe there finally being some potential for that too as we close out the month. I'm keeping an eye on that. Could have a shot there for one.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold. 

We got that impressive 16 day run of cold from late January into early February.

But since the rest of the U.S and the Northern Hemisphere was so warm last winter, the duration of the noteworthy cold was limited.

Back in the late 1970s when the world was much colder, there was ample cold supply across the Northern Hemisphere for the entire winter to rank as cold as the 16 day period did last winter. 

So the Northeast had to wait 11 years to finally get a colder winter than the long term average. 

 

 

 

 

[roardog]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

The media will have you believe that every heatwave is a “heat dome” that will melt your entire body and you’ll end up in the city sewer system. Meanwhile every cold snap is the polar vortex coming south instantly freezing every human or animal outside in place. In reality, sometimes it’s just really cold in winter and really hot in summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

I expected a bitter stretch in latter January into early February in association with that +TNH pattern, but it was cold more consistently than I expected.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

I hate that too. I hate heat but if its going to be hot id much rather see a good heatwave challenge some daytime high records rather than a swampy 88-92 with warm tropical low temps bringing up the departure.

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

The media will have you believe that every heatwave is a “heat dome” that will melt your entire body and you’ll end up in the city sewer system. Meanwhile every cold snap is the polar vortex coming south instantly freezing every human or animal outside in place. In reality, sometimes it’s just really cold in winter and really hot in summer.

I hate when the media does that.

Especially for areas such as the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast. Its actually fascinating to see how much of the world does NOT get to enjoy the extremes of both winter and summer like we do. Really if you like seasonal extremes, its a great place to live.

Our griping, complaining, worrying or excitement based on what local weather lies ahead is our personal comparison to our climo that were used to. I have a friend in the UK and she would freak at how cold she would be in our warmest winter on record or how hot shed be in our coldest summer on record.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expected a bitter stretch in latter January into early February in association with that +TNH pattern, but it was cold more consistently than I expected.

Speaking of your thoughts/expectactions lol. I noticed you've been repeatedly mentioning a warm December. Which seems a good bet based on everything from model forecasts to big support from strong nino climo. Are you going prohibitively warm/torch or just mild?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Speaking of your thoughts/expectactions lol. I noticed you've been repeatedly mentioning a warm December. Which seems a good bet based on everything from model forecasts to big support from strong nino climo. Are you going prohibitively warm/torch or just mild?

Depends where you are....most likely prohibitive along the east coast, at least.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends where you are....most likely prohibitive along the east coast, at least.

Agreed.  I feel it will be a "delayed" winter but not denied in the end.  

[EasternLI]

MJO is really booking it this year. I've read WQBO can speed it up too, so that's a little interesting. But man this thing is really flying. I feel like all that's going to do is constructively interfere with this el nino more often. Seems like this would just encourage the nino to take center stage even more so. Not that it needs that..

 

[Jebman]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

Epic sig material

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Epic sig material

 To be fair, that was before I was taking Chris' musings about the increasing prevalence of MC forcing very seriously...I mocked him in the lead up to that 2023-2024 winter and he ultimately handed me my ass. 

Invaluable learning experience for me because my outlooks have been much better since and I've addressed what had been a cold/snow bias.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Agreed.  I feel it will be a "delayed" winter but not denied in the end.  

I think thats a reasonable take. Especially for the coast, its not like December is prime winter normally anyway, much less in a strong nino.

@roardog @LakePaste25 and other Great Lakers. @40/70 Benchmark i know you dont forecast for the Lakes. I dont "forecast" at all but with all the discussion to date I can envision the season playing out something like this in SE MI- we get a good winter blast in mid or late November (hopefully Thanksgiving time) with well below avg temps and snow (probably synoptic and lake- watch out lake belts). Then December sees that late Fall vibe return. Not "warm", but more murky mild and Novembery. It will snow, but with the mild days handily outnumbering the cold ones will need some luck and good timing or else Decembers wintry opportunities may be limited to mood flakes and snow squalls.

January and February is when its game on but we will have two different scenarios to worry about. Scenario 1- the warmer strong nino outcome. More mild days. This also increases our odds bigtime of those dynamic wet snowstorms (think Jan/Mar 2023). But with those odds you still have to worry about storm track, plus you lose a lot of the daily mood flakes/light snows you get most winters. Scenario 2- the colder outcome models hint at. This is good for a more traditional winter feel, but too much of this could be cold and dry (moreso MI and west, not so much LakePaste territory). Winters like 1957-58 & 1965-66 that east coasters salivate over were boring as hell here, cold and dry with very light snowfall. We did at least have a light 1-3" snowcover each time for all the cold, but id imagine id be pulling my hair out as multiple storms hit the east. (Closest ive come to that was 1995-96 but even that was better than '58 or '66). Personally I dont think its happening, at least to that extent. If the cold wins, I think we see much more snow than '58 or '66 (not necessarily above avg, just more than those pitiful years). We've had two winters in a row where snowcover and cold "outpaced" snowfall, cant imagine 3 in a row. 

March- most of us are well overdue for a good March and early outlooks agree. I expect a good snowstorm this month. And if the rest of winter is lighter on snowfall, I can almost guarantee it. 

[BlizzardWx]

For an el nino summer, we've sure been cooking in the south lately, and it looks like a week or more of 100+ temps coming. Very unusual for el nino from my understanding...but I still think once we get more into fall the STJ will increase with angular momentum working north. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

For an el nino summer, we've sure been cooking in the south lately, and it looks like a week or more of 100+ temps coming. Very unusual for el nino from my understanding...but I still think once we get more into fall the STJ will increase with angular momentum working north. 

El Nino summers tend to be pretty hot down here in the deep southwest. I am near Austin. It's been pretty hot, highs generally about 100 degrees, lows generally about 77-84 with dews staying about 66-73.

Hopefully this autumn/winter then spring 2027 we will see some majorly beneficial rains. But a lot of that is probably gonnabe smacking down places like Georgia/Alabama, the deep south states and the general Southeast getting ridiculous amounts of rain. Also the Carolinas, Virginia, DC and Kentucky, Tennessee. Those places are going to be just piling on massive epic rain tallies because every system that hits the CONUS is gonna smash into them and the STJ is going to be SO roided up. The pac jet is going to be pure fire, bigger and far more epic than a Playboi Carti concert.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

For an el nino summer, we've sure been cooking in the south lately, and it looks like a week or more of 100+ temps coming. Very unusual for el nino from my understanding...but I still think once we get more into fall the STJ will increase with angular momentum working north. 

The pattern is producing much stronger 500 mb ridges across the CONUS and the rest of the mid-latitudes this summer than we ever had for such a strong El Niño.

This is why the CONUS just had the warmest July average temperature on record instead of the cooler very strong El Niño summer pattern.

We’ll  have to wait and see if this is an early signal El Niño 500 mb ridge axis will press further to the south and or east than usual during the winter. 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Larry is feeln' it- 

Dude needs a Bluewave intervention, and pronto  He'll slap you across the face with a series of JMA VP images.

 

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The pattern is producing much stronger 500 mb ridges across the CONUS and the rest of the mid-latitudes this summer than we ever had for such a strong El Niño.

This is why the CONUS just had the warmest July average temperature on record instead of the cooler very strong El Niño summer pattern.

We’ll  have to wait and see if this is an early signal El Niño 500 mb ridge axis will press further to the south and or east than usual during the winter. 

 

 

 

And there you have it. It's an irresistible impulse. Lol

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

And there you have it. It's an irresistible impulse. Lol

Your impulse seems to be focusing more on the patterns that you would like to see rather than the patterns that we have been getting. 
 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Your impulse seems to be focusing more on the patterns that you would like to see rather than the patterns that we have been getting. 

Hey Spock, lighten up! It's only weather. Lol

I'm still waiting for a definitive forecast whether the Canadian ridge will or won't be as strong as 23/24. 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hey Spock, lighten up! It's only weather. Lol

I'm still waiting for a definitive forecast whether the Canadian ridge will or won't be as strong as 23/24. 

 

There is a difference between lighthearted humor and passive-aggressive behavior. Most people want to read about the strongest El Niño on record rather than have to wade through these types of nonsense or banter posts. While I take it all in stride, it will cause others to just leave the forum. 

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is a difference between lighthearted humor and passive-aggressive behavior. Most people want to read about the strongest El Niño on record rather than have to wade through these types of nonsense or banter posts. While I take it all in stride, it will cause others to just leave the forum. 

I come from the MA forum where these kinds of posts are routine and keep things entertaining. Much like the NE forum as a matter of fact. None of it is meant as a personal attack. But vigorous discussion and disagreement is also routine in both forums. I don't believe I've crossed the line. We obviously have different personalities/viewpoints, but that's what you get in a public forum. It's unavoidable, hence the "ignore" feature is available. I think that's the only option available to either of us.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The pattern is producing much stronger 500 mb ridges across the CONUS and the rest of the mid-latitudes this summer than we ever had for such a strong El Niño.

This is why the CONUS just had the warmest July average temperature on record instead of the cooler very strong El Niño summer pattern.

We’ll  have to wait and see if this is an early signal El Niño 500 mb ridge axis will press further to the south and or east than usual during the winter. 

 

 

 

The thing I dislike about el ninos is they produce a dulling of extremes, cooler summers and warmer winters.  Hotter summers and colder winters are much more interesting.  Maybe in the future when we learn to control the weather we will figure out how to prevent these kinds of el ninos from happening. I envision gigantic underwater structures that control ocean currents. Until then i will just be happy knowing that the summers after El Nino are much hotter and drier.

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think thats a reasonable take. Especially for the coast, its not like December is prime winter normally anyway, much less in a strong nino.

@roardog @LakePaste25 and other Great Lakers. @40/70 Benchmark i know you dont forecast for the Lakes. I dont "forecast" at all but with all the discussion to date I can envision the season playing out something like this in SE MI- we get a good winter blast in mid or late November (hopefully Thanksgiving time) with well below avg temps and snow (probably synoptic and lake- watch out lake belts). Then December sees that late Fall vibe return. Not "warm", but more murky mild and Novembery. It will snow, but with the mild days handily outnumbering the cold ones will need some luck and good timing or else Decembers wintry opportunities may be limited to mood flakes and snow squalls.

January and February is when its game on but we will have two different scenarios to worry about. Scenario 1- the warmer strong nino outcome. More mild days. This also increases our odds bigtime of those dynamic wet snowstorms (think Jan/Mar 2023). But with those odds you still have to worry about storm track, plus you lose a lot of the daily mood flakes/light snows you get most winters. Scenario 2- the colder outcome models hint at. This is good for a more traditional winter feel, but too much of this could be cold and dry (moreso MI and west, not so much LakePaste territory). Winters like 1957-58 & 1965-66 that east coasters salivate over were boring as hell here, cold and dry with very light snowfall. We did at least have a light 1-3" snowcover each time for all the cold, but id imagine id be pulling my hair out as multiple storms hit the east. (Closest ive come to that was 1995-96 but even that was better than '58 or '66). Personally I dont think its happening, at least to that extent. If the cold wins, I think we see much more snow than '58 or '66 (not necessarily above avg, just more than those pitiful years). We've had two winters in a row where snowcover and cold "outpaced" snowfall, cant imagine 3 in a row. 

March- most of us are well overdue for a good March and early outlooks agree. I expect a good snowstorm this month. And if the rest of winter is lighter on snowfall, I can almost guarantee it. 

During super ninos, the most favored Great Lakes areas are those that favor NW flow lake effect, e.g. Edinboro/Colt Station/Chautaqua Ridge/S Tug Hill/Syracuse. This is due to the sheer number of coastal storms and even if they are mostly rain, the N stream diving in after can result in NW flow lake enhanced/upslope snow.