2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

It was the snowiest in over a decade in NYC ( over 40 inches )

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was the snowiest in over a decade in NYC ( over 40 inches )

It was wintry here, excellent thick ice cover on lakes and persistent snowcover. But actual snowfall wasnt impressive - BECAUSE of the cold, many storms tracked south. In fact, Detroit (39.5") received less snow than NYC (43.4") for just the 2nd time the past 20 years. Snow was in the air and on the ground near constantly though, so A+ scenary wise.

Despite the slightly below avg snowfall, the winter ranked as "Severe" on the AWSI, a testament to the deep cold and lasting snowpack. It was one of those winters that the public perceived as harsh. My mom (a fellow winter lover) loved how every night looking out at her backyard the snow shimmered like a million diamonds. 

At NYC, the 43 days of 1"+ snowcover ranked 17th most since 1912. So, 115 years, 16 years had more snowcover and 98 years had less (so much for there always being snow on the ground when old timers were kids ). At Detroit, the 63 days with 1"+ snowcover ranked 28th most since 1908.

Moving into this Nino, these are great examples why the snow-lover in me doesnt always want to see a deep blue map. So many moving parts for the coming winter, which is why I follow this thread with such interest. I do expect an overall subpar winter by MI standards, but theres so many different ways that could (or could not) happen. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

PDO changes afoot?

 

Well, maybe there are... then again maybe there aren't lol, but if we can get something like the 12z AIFS-ENS below. It would probably keep going the right direction. Start seeing this kind of GOA low on a regular basis would do wonders for the eastern portion of it. Do that plus get some tropical cyclones to take a bite out of that north Pacific warmth that has pooled there from the persistent ridging in that area. Combined, that would go a long way towards transforming that index. As a side note, that's part of the reason I would like to see a couple recurving typhoons through that region. Some guidance is hinting at maybe there finally being some potential for that too as we close out the month. I'm keeping an eye on that. Could have a shot there for one.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold. 

We got that impressive 16 day run of cold from late January into early February.

But since the rest of the U.S and the Northern Hemisphere was so warm last winter, the duration of the noteworthy cold was limited.

Back in the late 1970s when the world was much colder, there was ample cold supply across the Northern Hemisphere for the entire winter to rank as cold as the 16 day period did last winter. 

So the Northeast had to wait 11 years to finally get a colder winter than the long term average. 

 

 

 

 

[roardog]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

The media will have you believe that every heatwave is a “heat dome” that will melt your entire body and you’ll end up in the city sewer system. Meanwhile every cold snap is the polar vortex coming south instantly freezing every human or animal outside in place. In reality, sometimes it’s just really cold in winter and really hot in summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. 

There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15.

In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. 

For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

I expected a bitter stretch in latter January into early February in association with that +TNH pattern, but it was cold more consistently than I expected.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’m aware. It was a jab at people who downplay heatwaves when they say “it’s called summer, it’s supposed to be hot.” 

I hate that too. I hate heat but if its going to be hot id much rather see a good heatwave challenge some daytime high records rather than a swampy 88-92 with warm tropical low temps bringing up the departure.