2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, JACKASS said:

Maybe if ya all weren’t dicks to the poor guy who was just trying to post current data, he wouldn’t have left thinking everyone hated him.

But Fuck It, right.

Ya all won a stupid battle.

Congrats on making yourselves feel better.

People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.

He is also 5 posted.

He reminds me of DT. Can dish it but cant take it. 

Snowman19 is also like this on Twitter.

[EasternLI]

Jamstec updated for August. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models.

We are def. due for a stretch like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April!

 

April:

May:

 

June:

 

July:

 

Aug:

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..

What I mean by exaggerated is with respect to the DJF mean pattern...it's probably going to be too cold in December, and while that DJF mean map may very well be representative of one month (February), it's highly likely to be overly reflected in the DJF mean on the model.

[GaWx]

 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

 

@bluewave

[40/70 Benchmark]

Larry is feeln' it- 

Dude needs a Bluewave intervention, and pronto  He'll slap you across the face with a series of JMA VP images.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Larry is feeln' it- 

Dude needs a Bluewave intervention, and pronto

Leave him alone. He likes that corner of the room and the wall feels good on his head.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Leave him alone. He likes that corner of the room and the wall feels good on his head.

It's coming lol I'm telling you, he's going to shred this optimism like a ninja with absolute surgical precision. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's coming lol I'm telling you, he's going to shred this optimism like a ninja with absolute surgical precision. 

Since I'm always optimistic as there's nothing to lose enjoying the hobby, I'll remain in the open instead of ducking for cover. Lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

 

@bluewave

At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch.

The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch.

The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.

The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4):

 

Current run (Aug):

 

 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4):

 

Current run (Aug):

 

 

Nice western ridge 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That JMA output is textbook Modoki composite. Again, I think that is overdone in the seasonal mean, but it is what it is.

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.

I thought i was reading backwards. "Poor guy" . HE was a complete dick, not the other way around.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are def. due for a stretch like that.

I believe that was the case in Feb 2015. I don't remember who, but someone had a meltdown with the historic cold because it was warm elsewhere in the globe, saying this is the worst thing for Americans who mock cc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I believe that was the case in Feb 2015. I don't remember who, but someone had a meltdown with the historic cold because it was warm elsewhere in the globe, saying this is the worst thing for Americans who mock cc.

Probably @Typhoon Tiplol

[LakePaste25]

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i just thought the cold last winter was overhyped. It’s called winter it’s supposed to be cold. 

Depends where though . NYC haven't seen a week straight of temps in the 20s in a long time until last winter. 

[Cobalt]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends where though . NYC haven't seen a week straight of temps in the 20s in a long time until last winter. 

Yeah, the cold was definitely legitimate in the East. NYC for example had a 16 day stretch during effectively peak winter that ranked top 3 coldest, and I believe it was don who also noted that the same site had its coldest La Nina February in 90 years. Impressive metrics in a warming climate. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East.

It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.

[mitchnick]

PDO changes afoot?