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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino


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3 hours ago, JACKASS said:

Maybe if ya all weren’t dicks to the poor guy who was just trying to post current data, he wouldn’t have left thinking everyone hated him.

But Fuck It, right.

Ya all won a stupid battle.

Congrats on making yourselves feel better.

People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.

He is also 5 posted.

He reminds me of DT. Can dish it but cant take it. 

Snowman19 is also like this on Twitter.

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

QuJvOBv.png

LTNNVql.png

yoaXmSr.png

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.

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27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..

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16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models.

We are def. due for a stretch like that.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April!

 

April:

IMG_1628.png.6b7a3e124bdc0ba07258b5a6265d18d7.png

May:

IMG_1629.png.80bf30abf8d3081d01fc27c6b89124d1.png
 

June:

IMG_1630.png.5412f3588846f644075dd541d7cf207f.png

 

July:

IMG_1631.png.b924638c12df5af8dd92a0e2eab67181.png

 

Aug:

IMG_1632.png.b0b87aaf4b1f10ff9ed53c9f93e3183f.png

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..

What I mean by exaggerated is with respect to the DJF mean pattern...it's probably going to be too cold in December, and while that DJF mean map may very well be representative of one month (February), it's highly likely to be overly reflected in the DJF mean on the model.

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 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

IMG_1633.png.dd88d102cd158002562ca1b008341246.png
 

@bluewave

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's coming lol I'm telling you, he's going to shred this optimism like a ninja with absolute surgical precision. 

Since I'm always optimistic as there's nothing to lose enjoying the hobby, I'll remain in the open instead of ducking for cover. Lol

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