2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO.

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.

[LakePaste25]

I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy. 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

[ensonerd1233e343]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Arse?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time.

There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.

 

 

[GaWx]

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time.

There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.

 

 

Yeah other than that 2 week stretch in late January/early February the cold wasn’t really that impressive. Same with 2024-25. Just normal cold that we used to get much more frequently. The snow was decent though. 

[GaWx]

8/8 12Z CFS: not as strong with none 4+ til Sept 4th:

[Maxim]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

lol, it’s still summer and the weenies are already starting to lash out. Seethe harder little man, your “colder and snowier” winter which you were wishcasting earlier isn’t happening. The weather and climate don’t revolve around your backyard either.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Maxim said:

lol, it’s still summer and the weenies are already starting to lash out. Seethe harder little man, your “colder and snowier” winter which you were wishcasting earlier isn’t happening. The weather and climate don’t revolve around your backyard either.

You’re attacking someone on the same team as you  PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

 

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

[BlizzardWx]

IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later. 

[raindancewx]

Closest simple match I could get for May-July US precipitation was a blend 1963, 1976, 1997, 2003 as a blend. A lot of years in winter end up coldest where Summer was wettest, 2009-10 was very cold in the East/South following a very wet May-Jul as an example.

Most of the recent Ninos are much better than observed for the past May-July. The SE ridge is essentially displaced v. the blend, so the moisture in the SE has to be shifted to the NW, to include a bit more of the Plains and AZ, with the core dryness also centered somewhat NW of shown.

For highs and rain locally, June 1-Aug 8 is almost identical to a blend of four El Ninos: 1953, 1958, 1994, 2023. Very hot, very dry.

2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 mean high: 94.9. Blend: 94.05F

2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 total rain: 0.80". Blend: 0.73"

Interestingly, that blend is pretty consistently snowy in Nov-Jan locally, and then much more inconsistent Feb-Apr. But February is probably one of the warmest months on record for the US in that blend. 

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring.

This time around we got the fastAO/ NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season.

This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold.

It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, Cobalt said:

You’re attacking someone on the same team as you  PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

It just keeps climbing with the record breaking WWBs continuing. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

On 8/7/2026 at 8:27 AM, GaWx said:

 Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

 Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

[Cobalt]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

I see. Well I appreciate you not adhering to a cookie cutter forecast and applying nuance to this upcoming winter. It's telling that the same people who are excited about the prospect of a warm winter simply because of the reaction of this board were also the ones who went warm for 24-25 and 25-26. 

[LakePaste25]

Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.  

[bncho]

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.