2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO.

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.

[LakePaste25]

I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy. 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

[ensonerd1233e343]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Arse?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time.

There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.