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February Banter 2026


George BM
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Moved to banter, lol.

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

This man abandoned us for snowier pastures.  Single handedly reduced the black population in this forum by 25%.  

I will not forgive. 

29 minutes ago, diatae said:

Ummm there's still 4 of us left, based on my last count. WxWatcher reduced our population by 20%. Rude of him, but not 25% rude. Do we need to line up and do a head count? There's 3 days left in our month. We can't have anyone missing.

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MSLP error (KM) vs. lead time for our Mid Atlantic-Northeast blizzard. Notice that at 144 to 168 hours in advance the GFS was indeed KING! But overall, this graph shows once again that the skill (utility) with the AI models is in the medium range (after FH84). However notice that with this event, the AIGFS got much worse than the AIFS and a lot of other guidance between forecast hours 90-125.

Screenshot (38).png

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18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yo @stormtracker is this somebody you know? Hahahahaha Made some weird brown stuff on the ice rink...but the umbrella got me, lol

Screenshot_20260224_212158_X.thumb.jpg.534b34d3364251e850c6cc26ff295f54.jpg

 

(Forgive me if this is close to political but it was too good not to share)

 

I saw.....just skipped it by because.    Yeah.   Nah.

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2 hours ago, WxMan1 said:

MSLP error (KM) vs. lead time for our Mid Atlantic-Northeast blizzard. Notice that at 144 to 168 hours in advance the GFS was indeed KING! But overall, this graph shows once again that the skill (utility) with the AI models is in the medium range (after FH84). However notice that with this event, the AIGFS got much worse than the AIFS and a lot of other guidance between forecast hours 90-125.

Screenshot (38).png

Wow, the euro actually got smoked at d4 lead times pretty hard in that one. 

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2 hours ago, Heisy said:


I think it’s a half beat too slow lol.

 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Disappointed in you

I dissent :lol: I think the tempo fits just fine! In fact, a case could be made that this tempo makes the eventual POP! more effective because it's more of a walking tempo (the GIF about 97 bpm...so Andante) That is just slow enough to kinda lull ya before surprise--just like the famous movement from Haydn's "Surprise" symphony (which incidentally also goes well  with this, haha) That tempo is an Andante as well which makes the surprise even better. Do it too fast and the POP loses it's distinctiveness. 

So...walk don't run before the POP!

That's my musical case for why that tempo works and I dares is even better! ;)

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@Terpeast @WxUSAF

Was the Palm Sunday blizzard of 1942 one of the HECS storms that would likely not have happened today?  I know when this was a topic and that regression study was done Feb 1987 was a lost one and one other was mentioned, was it 1942?  

Baltimore got 22" but the temperature never got below 33 degrees the whole storm.  Seems unlikely that would have worked out today with the roughly 3.5F increase in temps since then.  That's kinda depressing...one of Baltimores biggest snowstorms ever would probably just have been a dismal rainy spring day if that same exact thing happened again today.  

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I know I'm probably an outlier, but I always hope it's cold or cool as long as possible. I really enjoy spring, once it's proper spring. But forecast warmth now is still a drag for me. Idgaf about shorts and tshirts. Lawn care can wait as long as possible. I'll allow that warmer hikes are mildly appealing. March is a terrible month. The worst. A few torches in it doesn't make it better. All you bring on spring weenies, I get you, your warmth cravings are normal, I'm just not like that.

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12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

I dissent :lol: I think the tempo fits just fine! In fact, a case could be made that this tempo makes the eventual POP! more effective because it's more of a walking tempo (the GIF about 97 bpm...so Andante) That is just slow enough to kinda lull ya before surprise--just like the famous movement from Haydn's "Surprise" symphony (which incidentally also goes well  with this, haha) That tempo is an Andante as well which makes the surprise even better. Do it too fast and the POP loses it's distinctiveness. 

So...walk don't run before the POP!

That's my musical case for why that tempo works and I dares is even better! ;)

Good case, Maestro. Also "a half beat too slow" lol wtf. Tough crowd :lol:

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