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Is we back? February discussion thread


mahk_webstah
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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GFS is a tick or two away from being a full snowstorm here. The model that was furthest south and wanted nothing to do with this storm is now the most aggressive

Gfs went from visiting spring training in Florida to a snowstorm up here.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs went from visiting spring training in Florida to a snowstorm up here.

GEFS will be interesting i bet some good hits in there. 

I knew there was something up with this storm i never gave up fully on it, gonna want to see some more tics though and ec to come on board as well

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11 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Gfs is more impressive all around and a lot less flat. If this keeps ticking I can see it being fun on Long Island. Couple more ticks and I might get measurable snow!

I'm in Boston until Monday so it's guaranteed to hit NYC/LI when I'm away. And make for a disaster when I'm driving home.

Looks here like it did at home a week ago roughly with the snowcover. 

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7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Been texting you didn’t even think to go on here bc it’s mostly a nyc metro threat as of now 

It's such a fragile setup. Maybe the 10 pieces can assemble themselves this time to make something happen but there's been countless times since 2019 where it didn't or hit somewhere else. But there's the when I'm away rule in place like in Jan 2016. 

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On 2/11/2026 at 3:34 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

@MJO812 lmao you got bamboozled and hoodwinked, saw that coming from a mile away. AIs were never on board 

 

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GEFS will be interesting i bet some good hits in there. 

I knew there was something up with this storm i never gave up fully on it, gonna want to see some more tics though and ec to come on board as well

 

 

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I don’t really buy the late week systems getting shredded to the extent modeling currently depicts. Shortwave buckshot within the chaotic synoptic soup is likely causing issues within modeling of vorticity. One packet should consolidate and push farther north/coherent than operational modeling is currently showing, though the blocking does put a cap on the peak latitude 

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No-I'm not. I can't wait until this passes so this thread can focus on storms that are threats to New England.

Good luck with that. Not much to track on the models after this system.  At least that's what they're showing tonight for next week. 

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah and?

Euro had a major storm that cycle. And the AIs did not, i knew the Euro op would waffle like that,  but I never gave up fully on the threat of something like a scraper.

I love the football spiking for a model run that has like 1-3" in the southwest corner of the region.

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