Is we back? February discussion thread

[Kitz Craver]

I don’t think there will be some stupid cold antecedent, this will be on the edge for ptype 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I don’t think there will be some stupid cold antecedent, this will be on the edge for ptype 

Also have to remember peak climo too…if it pans out, with a good track, it’ll easily be snow just away from the coast with a storm of that magnitude.  And SST are frigid so that will help(the shore/and everybody) as well. 

[CoastalWx]

Just based on what I see, I think after the 15th we turn mild. Then late month winter tries to return. 

[bristolri_wx]

25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, that could still end up being the case. 

Sure.  However that wasn't the context I was going for.  384 hour weenie maps were being posted with doom and gloom comments!  While any weather scenario is always on the table, basing an opinion on a forecast outcome on that particular data set was quite silly.  That's my point.  If we are looking at a 5 day forecast for it to be bone dry, then it's definitely a very possible forecast and weather outcome.

Cold air is around.  There will be chances that aren't even showing up in the models.  They may not work out but there will be trackable systems over the next few weeks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I feel your pain here in the city as well. Infrastructure is already bursting at the seams

So weird.  It was a decent snowfall, but not the meatiest stuff.  And there has been over a week to clear it.  I wonder why it has been so problmatic

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just based on what I see, I think after the 15th we turn mild. Then late month winter tries to return. 

There will be another relaxation.  It makes sense.  It would be harder for one not for one to occur...  patterns only last so long in our area.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So weird.  It was a decent snowfall, but not the meatiest stuff.  And there has been over a week to clear it.  I wonder why it has been so problmatic

We got soft over the last 4 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Also have to remember peak climo too…if it pans out, with a good track, it’ll easily be snow just away from the coast with a storm of that magnitude.  And SST are frigid so that will help(the shore/and everybody) as well. 

Yea-pump that east wind

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just based on what I see, I think after the 15th we turn mild. Then late month winter tries to return. 

Kind of a bush league warmup on EPS…keeps washing out the warmest anomalies west and northwest of us. Which is what we’d expect with a rotting NAO block. 
 

Maybe we get a cutter to get a couple days of true torch. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We got soft over the last 4 years.

100% This.  Was thinking the same thing…we’ve had such an easy go the last few years, it’s gotten towns/cities soft for sure. 

[8611Blizz]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So weird.  It was a decent snowfall, but not the meatiest stuff.  And there has been over a week to clear it.  I wonder why it has been so problmatic

Big problem is the labor shortage.  People don't talk about it but most of the contractors I know ( including me) have equipment sitting because of the lack of drivers and operators. It's only  going to get worse, too.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Sure.  However that wasn't the context I was going for.  384 hour weenie maps were being posted with doom and gloom comments!  While any weather scenario is always on the table, basing an opinion on a forecast outcome on that particular data set was quite silly.  That's my point.  If we are looking at a 5 day forecast for it to be bone dry, then it's definitely a very possible forecast and weather outcome.

Cold air is around.  There will be chances that aren't even showing up in the models.  They may not work out but there will be trackable systems over the next few weeks.

This was exactly my point yesterday and the day before. Folks posting 384 clown maps of temps, and precip, and acting as if that was not going to change at all?   And that was gonna be the final outcome.  I never get that mentality?  
 

But yet if somebody posts a blizzard at 384 hrs, it’s laughed at. But somehow the same clown range 384 hr temp and precip map is somehow more believable, just because folks are upset that we missed the big coastal storm that hammered the SE.  that idea is just lost on me.  
 

And when one questions it, we’re labeled as ACATT….??  It Beats me? 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of a bush league warmup on EPS…keeps washing out the warmest anomalies west and northwest of us. Which is what we’d expect with a rotting NAO block. 
 

Maybe we get a cutter to get a couple days of true torch. 

Every single torch all fall and winter disappears. Next week was supposed to be one and now we’ve got 3 snowers 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single torch all fall and winter disappears. Next week was supposed to be one and now we’ve got 3 snowers 

Ya I agree, but you know the push back we get when we say this.  They get irate. A few more seconds and there will be a post about the Jan thaw, and how it happened(and no doubt it certainly did), but other than that, everything else has been largely muted to date.  We’ll see what happens by mid month? 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single torch all fall and winter disappears. Next week was supposed to be one and now we’ve got 3 snowers 

3?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of a bush league warmup on EPS…keeps washing out the warmest anomalies west and northwest of us. Which is what we’d expect with a rotting NAO block. 
 

Maybe we get a cutter to get a couple days of true torch. 

Just has that look of Pacific hangover breathe.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya I agree, but you know the push back we get when we say this.  They get irate. A few more seconds and there will be a post about the Jan thaw, and how it happened(and no doubt it certainly did), but other than that, everything else has been largely muted to date.  We’ll see what happens by mid month? 

Ok man. Time to let it go and move on to other talking points.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Big problem is the labor shortage.  People don't talk about it but most of the contractors I know ( including me) have equipment sitting because of the lack of drivers and operators. It's only  going to get worse, too.

There was also over 2” QPF in that. That is a shit ton to throw in a snow event. Piles were massive and unlike fluff, when you shoveled snow, it became a mountain of snow. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok man. Time to let it go and move on to other talking points.

It’s gonna snow until Memorial Day. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gonna snow until Memorial Day. 

1967 redux (Northern ORH county had 2 snow events that May including one on the Friday/Saturday of memorial day weekend)

[Kitz Craver]

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So weird.  It was a decent snowfall, but not the meatiest stuff.  And there has been over a week to clear it.  I wonder why it has been so problmatic

For something that fell in such a cold DGZ it had some sneaky density to it for sure

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok man. Time to let it go and move on to other talking points.

 

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok man. Time to let it go and move on to other talking points.

Kind of like how you guys let go the “we dont know type stuff?”    Maybe when that stops? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So sensitive

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So sensitive

Nope, just keeping it real: what’s good for one is good for all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3?

Saturday Wednesday Vday

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Kind of like how you guys let go the “we dont know type stuff?”    Maybe when that stops? 

Fair point, lol

[SouthCoastMA]

2/7, 2/12, 2/15

Can we bat .667? I'd like to hit on at least one of the latter two, having the higher upside. 

[dendrite]

I remember reading about the Jan thaw getting muted too and it ended up +10 over a 10 day stretch. But sure, the cold has won out in the extended more often than not for the first 2/3 of winter.

But I don’t think many have been predicting toucans and stunned iguanas. It’s more just a relaxation of the pattern with more snow/ptype threats and more fair weather days above freezing given the latitude gain of the temp gradient. 

[nutmegfriar]

Has anyone ever studied the relationship between Nor'easters that go out to sea and the sudden weight gain of ducks?  I had to get rid of a lot of bread that I purchased before this past weekend's storm.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We got soft over the last 4 years.

 

52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

100% This.  Was thinking the same thing…we’ve had such an easy go the last few years, it’s gotten towns/cities soft for sure. 

Longer. A lot of the public has gotten used to blowtorches and 25% climo snow since this crap started in 2018-19. Now we’re getting a classic NE winter and folks are freaking out.