Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s later on post-Ides. I have no idea what’s going to happen during that late Feb/early Mar period. If you keep the Atlantic blocking during that period and then try and insert a -EPO, then we could get something exotic. 

Well ..honestly, that bold is unstable and probably one or the other yields... about 90% confident it would be the -NAO...

I can't stress this enough.. the NAO is modulated/forced by the wave termination mechanics downstream of the Pacific planetary signal.  Not lecturing anyone here ...just sayn', it is not occurring just spontaneously out of random emergence. It is dictated by the former planetary circulation gunk. 

Such that having that block emerging in the N. Pac ...it's likely it pulls the rug out on the -NAO...  It may not entirely... but we probably see something like a neutralizing NAO domain, while the PNAP across the CONUS sort of biases toward a -PNA but fails really be strongly so with any warm dividends one might climo-associated to a -PNA ...while late cold loads western Canada ( destined to stretch the field..)

This is predicated on the N. Pac continuing to manifest, though.  We'll see.

[alex]

Snow ended with about 4” of pure fluff. Stake up to 23” of depth but I’m sure it will compact down in no time

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... 

Oh it's not helping, sure.   But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles...

That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters...  it's identical. 

This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW...   just like there are those thinking similarly now.  But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event.

This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle...  The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

Not necessarily fooled AFAIC, but to me, that is close enough at several months lead.

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. 
 

Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression. 

This is all we’ve been trying to say…when we got scolded by the angry resident MET, saying we were calling for some 14-15 redo, and among other things.  But it’s all good.  Liking the evolving look.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not ignoring that, but didn’t clearly state it. I posted a few times that there’s signs of shuffling….meaning the Pacific getting better. As we get later in the season I just want to see money in the bank….aka a good airmass in Canada to tap into. If blocking persists that’s even better but not sure what to think about that. 

Frankly, the WPO isn't that important in March due to wave lengths shortening, so can't even be sure that would have the same stifling impact that it did earlier in the season.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is all we’ve been trying to say…when we got scolded by the angry resident MET, saying we were calling for some 14-15 redo, and among other things.  But it’s all good.  Liking the evolving look.   

It’s still a dicey period. I think the focus is more now through 2/15. After 2-15 it may get ugly as hinted before perhaps we reshuffle.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frankly, the WPO isn't that important in March due to wave lengths shortening, so can't even be sure that would have the same stifling impact that it did earlier in the season.

I just mean helping provide more fresh cold air. Definitely not on the suppress route. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just mean helping provide more fresh cold air. Definitely not on the suppress route. 

Yea, I know...I was more referencing John's comment. Maybe he's right, but I would just be careful about expecting the same N Pac setup to have that exact, same result later in the season, as far as stifling storminess.

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI still likes the 11-12 but whiffs on a big coastal 14-15. But that can be worked on.

[Go Kart Mozart]

American Skynet trying to party like it's 1969.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI still likes the 11-12 but whiffs on a big coastal 14-15. But that can be worked on.

Yea, I mean I'm not saying it can't whiff, either...it's just fraught with uncertainty, which is why I'm reluctant to bite into it. Made that mistake last week. I can just ignore if I don't introduce and it goes away.

[CoastalWx]

Not out on Pivotal, but looks like euro has a bomb next weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not out on Pivotal, but looks like euro has a bomb next weekend.

Anything mid week?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not out on Pivotal, but looks like euro has a bomb next weekend.

Erection slowly activated....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything mid week?

Looks like a huge Norlun centered on CT over 1000'.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not out on Pivotal, but looks like where has a bomb next weekend.

What has a bomb?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

What has a bomb?

EURO

[EastonSN+]

The AI.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything mid week?

Weak system. Snow or snow to sleet in CT.

[CoastalWx]

Time of year where I root for clouds. Eff the sun. So open here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro AI for Saturday and midweek event 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time of year where I root for clouds. Eff the sun. So open here.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday driving home...I'm like, I wish tonight's cloud deck had moved in middayish

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking the same thing yesterday driving home...I'm like, I wish tonight's cloud deck had moved in middayish

At least it stalled it until 10:30 here today. Some cumulus now.

[Modfan2]

Would be nice out minus the wind. 

[CoastalWx]

Yea that’s a bomb. May get dicey for a time near BOS on South, but that’s a bomb.

[ORH_wxman]

Lock it in. Only 11 days to go

[Kitz Craver]

Skynet looking OTS for mid month? Robots have had the hot hand…

[Nomz]

look at the euro op lol

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Skynet looking OTS for mid month? Robots have had the hot hand…

Wouldn’t put any stock into a d10-11 output regardless of which model it was. Well see how the AIs look vs OPs in another few days. AI runs have had that storm off and on the last few cycles. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not out on Pivotal, but looks like euro has a bomb next weekend.

Meh only 20-40" 982 on BM