Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Happy V ditty…

Do you know what that actually translates to at surface? Lol

[NW_of_GYX]

2 hours ago, Angus said:

3" ?? I just looked on a map of Sebago for the location of Great Bay. Now I understand. Crazy how infrequently Sebago now freezes.

Long fetch on that lake, need sustained night time lows well below zero, but even more importantly low wind. Big bay froze last year but was short lived and got smashed by wind 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The quickening flow is well past documentation and researched/papered ... I've supplied links over the years. 

One can go to Phys.org or where ever access point they use and bother looking for themselves at this point.

Plus, why do we think all those air-land speed flight records have been set in recent decades re west-->east?

It's not a question of whether the flow is fast or not..  Fiddling with Navier-Stokes, agreed - but the basic wave form of the Navier Stokes equations ( which are processed in the physical make up in the model), has the U component variable - which is the static velocity of fluid medium within which the wave propagation takes place. Increasing the value is going to do something to the wave spacing.

 

Speaking for myself, I'm obviously not debating CC, or the that the increase in the speed of the flow is real...my contention is that CC is having a negative influence on major east coast cyclogenesis via altered tropical forcing (increase in MC phases, and decrease in central Pacific phases) as a result of the disproportionately rapid warming of the west Pacific. I'm sure the fast flow doesn't help, but I don't think it's the primary inhibitor due to the success that other areas of the globe have with amplification...ie midwest and western Atlantic (Maritimes). It's probably a combination, but it definitely seems to me to be more an issue of simply faster flow, and somewhat of a forcing issue.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you know what that actually translates to at surface? Lol

Only a 12 day Clown range at that…but I guess there’s a chance…

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We need you to drive by the christmas trees on a strong rad morning with the car thermo for science.

I’m sure that pit is cooler than his coop site, but he’s probably overplaying it by a good 5F.

He's the Bakersville COOP that ive seen on there for the past 100 years? I'm not surprised now on why it's often so extreme

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, kdxken said:

No worries. 

 

I told that moron on his own site that the next SSW was coming in February back in early December, when be was trying to claim one was coming near Christmas. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Only a 12 day Clown range at that…but I guess there’s a chance…

AI EPS is pretty weenieish 13-16th

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

AI EPS is pretty weenieish 13-16th

Way out Clown range, but rather it look weenieish than not. Let’s get a storm in here on the 13th to start the long weekend early….

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both skynet models have been more bullish for keeping snow chances (even with moderated temps) than the regular model suites in the second week of February. We’ll see as we get closer if that’s more correct. 
 

They have been performing pretty well imho overall. They never got very bullish on the 1/31-2/1 threat (correctly so), stayed more bullish than OPs on both the 1/18-19 and 1/25 threats (also correctly). 
 

Still in clown range for now. 

Yeah I noticed that too. Hopefully it’s right. 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Will, What days next week are these clown range threats? 13th? 

Yes. 2/13-14 on euro Skynet and GFS Skynet has a couple threats…one around 2/11 and another 2/15. 

[wx2fish]

18z euro is still on the more interesting side this weekend. Could be another higher end norlun setup, obviously favoring coastal ME

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Way out Clown range, but rather it look weenieish than not. Let’s get a storm in here on the 13th to start the long weekend early….

It's an ensemble mean, otherwise i wouldn't have mentioned it. But yeah still pretty far out there. I'm sure we'll get at least 1 or 2 threats in mid-late feb. AI is still in it's very early development but it's caught my eye to be at least worth watching and taking note of this winter. Especially Euro AI/AI EPS, it's done well from my perspective

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Some folks are meh. 

Cold definitely hasn't been meh...but seasonal snowfall has for a lot of us, and the expanse of meh in that respect is growing by the day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

18z euro is still on the more interesting side this weekend. Could be another higher end norlun setup, obviously favoring coastal ME

Interesting is a subjective term, I guess.

[mahk_webstah]

Looks to me like euro ai got worse, more cutterish for 14-15th with strong primary Midwest and redevelopment later and on gulf of maine

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boy did that MJO fail

 

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Moving to warmer phases now. So the pattern change makes sense. 

 

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Speaking for myself, I'm obviously not debating CC, or the that the increase in the speed of the flow is real...my contention is that CC is having a negative influence on major east coast cyclogenesis via altered tropical forcing (increase in MC phases, and decrease in central Pacific phases) as a result of the disproportionately rapid warming of the west Pacific. I'm sure the fast flow doesn't help, but I don't think it's the primary inhibitor due to the success that other areas of the globe have with amplification...ie midwest and western Atlantic (Maritimes). It's probably a combination, but it definitely seems to me to be more an issue of simply faster flow, and somewhat of a forcing issue.

See, this is what I mean...guidance is constantly biased too great in both amplitude and residence time in phase 8 the past decade, but it's been the opposite in the MC phases. Take the under on phase 8 and win every time. Last year and especially this year, we have seen the north Pacific flip to allow for more cold, but we are still falling short on east coast amplification...undoubtedly tied to the aforementioned trend IMHO. I'm sure the faster flow is also a factor, but this is why other areas can still overcome it.

 

[Cold Miser]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like winter ends after this weekend, was a great one

minus the "great" part.

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting is a subjective term, I guess.

Bar is low, but itll probably produce more here than the last 90 storm page thread 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

minus the "great" part.

It’s been quite good here Garth. Sadly maybe not so much over at lava lake. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like winter ends after this weekend, was a great one

Nope...just like I told you on the January PNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Bar is low, but itll probably produce more here than the last 90 storm page thread 

No contest.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cold definitely hasn't been meh...but seasonal snowfall has for a lot of us, and the expanse of meh in that respect is growing by the day.

The only meh thing I will say about MBY with regards to the cold is I haven’t had one of those uber cold rad nights we sometimes get.   Like -15 to -20 or so. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS AI says what torch ? 
It strands folks at home for V Day 

 

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Only a 12 day Clown range at that…but I guess there’s a chance…

Yup…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you know what that actually translates to at surface? Lol

Cold rain haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

First time driving since my knee replacement on the 13th. Totally impressed by the piles and more impressive are the icicles on the old homes. 31⁰ here first day of some melting. But what a gorgeous landscape. Some of us can enjoy the gift of nature while others grouse about needing more. Says alot 

 

I actually do appreciate it...walked to the bus stop to get my daughter after I had my colonoscopy cherry popped today...fixated on everything from the size of the piles to the resiliency of the snow on the side roads and roofs after more than a week removed from snowfall with any purpose. You guys only interact with me on here, which is when I have the IV in...if nothing is injecting into my veins at that time, I get moody.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

minus the "great" part.

Depends on where you live but every climate site in SNE/Tri-State is above to well above season-to-date snowfall. That is, of course, going to fall to closer to normal over the next 7 days or so.

I might do another season-to-date update this week if anyone wants to give me their snowfall totals in SNE. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Depends on where you live but every climate site in SNE/Tri-State is above to well above season-to-date snowfall. That is, of course, going to fall to closer to normal over the next 7 days or so.

I might do another season-to-date update this week if anyone wants to give me their snowfall totals in SNE. 

 

 

39.5"

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The only meh thing I will say about MBY with regards to the cold is I haven’t had one of those uber cold rad nights we sometimes get.   Like -15 to -20 or so. 

I've been very impressed with the cold...snow has been about as I had thought, just less in December and maybe a bit more in January. 

[SouthCoastMA]

33.5

[met_fan]

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Depends on where you live but every climate site in SNE/Tri-State is above to well above season-to-date snowfall. That is, of course, going to fall to closer to normal over the next 7 days or so.

I might do another season-to-date update this week if anyone wants to give me their snowfall totals in SNE. 

 

 

34"