Is we back? February discussion thread

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa and arctic winds on the gfs for Ray.

Sounds like he’ll be working on his fantasy baseball draft the next 7 days.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have been doing some jet stream reading this morning.  There is a cadre of researchers from reputable institutions arguing that cc actually slows the polar jet.

I have no clue who is right...or who is in the minority/majority....but some worthwhile reading nonetheless.

The arctic is warming faster than the mid latitudes/equator so in theory that weakens the thermal gradient in the NHEM and hence a weaker thermal wind.

That’s what tends to happen in the warm season. The higher latitudes make a larger temperature recovery from winter and winds weaken and wavelengths shorten.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skynet looked kind of interesting next week....OP GFS doesn't. 

When next week?….that’s kind of fantasy range at this point…no? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa and arctic winds on the gfs for Ray.

This weekend looks super cold... colder than this past shot

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This weekend looks super cold... colder than this past shot

Followed by a Valentines Day massacre on the GFS. Lets flood.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This weekend looks super cold... colder than this past shot

probably it will attenuate some 12 or more % in the guidance over the course of the week. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This weekend looks super cold... colder than this past shot

And that was no joke. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Followed by a Valentines Day massacre on the GFS. Lets flood.

I mentioned the other day, the ice buildup on the rivers is already impressive. Another week of this, and it will be insane.
Bye-bye Vermont, again?  

[CoastalWx]

GFS says to start working on fantasy baseball drafts.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And that was no joke. 

According to several folks, it was meh’.     

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS says to start working on fantasy baseball drafts.

When ? VD ?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

According to several folks, it was meh’.     

Some folks are meh. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS says to start working on fantasy baseball drafts.

Good thing the GFS blows dongs. A week ago today it showed us getting a monster coastal too.  It Blows. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS says to start working on fantasy baseball drafts.

To early to establish any confidence but it's the first of the season, post exiting the solar minimum, when the extended GFS can't wait to tell us here comes spring

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

When ? VD ?

and beyond. Obviously an op run but danger is there.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

and beyond. Obviously an op run but danger is there.

The rubber band needs to eventually snap back to warmer. Enjoy the deep packs. Pack season is about done in SNE anyhow. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

and beyond. Obviously an op run but danger is there.

Key words…Op Run. If it showed a monster storm, would that be considered?  Everybody would laugh. So it goes with this as well currently.  If it gains traction…that’s different. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Boy did that MJO fail

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The rubber band needs to eventually snap back to warmer. Enjoy the deep packs. Pack season is about done in SNE anyhow. 

Oh ya…Feb 2nd and pack season done..?  Where the F do you live? Some years the pack is just getting started.  What a ridiculous statement.   Maybe March 2nd that might be more accurate…unless it’s March of 17 or 18. Then that statement would be wrong too. Lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boy did that MJO fail

Moving to warmer phases now. So the pattern change makes sense. 

[radarman]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To early to establish any confidence but it's the first of the season, post exiting the solar minimum, when the extended GFS can't wait to tell us here comes spring

Folks looking for action might like that implied battleground with the cold lurking in Canada.  Sure it could go wrong, but volatile at least.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, radarman said:

Folks looking for action might like that implied battleground with the look in Canada.  Sure it could go wrong, but looks potentially volatile.

Looks icy. Maybe that’s our Oxford, MS type storm 

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good thing the GFS blows dongs. A week ago today it showed us getting a monster coastal too.  It Blows. 

So was the Euro AI

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Folks looking for action might like that implied battleground with the cold lurking in Canada.  Sure it could go wrong, but volatile at least.

Yes. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, kdxken said:

So was the Euro AI

Maybe it waffled a bit, but then for days it did not like it much. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, kdxken said:

So was the Euro AI

Yup. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

So was the Euro AI

I don’t trust any Op past a few days…and that’s a stretch lately. So when an Op shows something/anything out at 300 plus hrs, it’s a clown solution-period. Laughable. 

[dendrite]

Yeah a week averaging -15 isn’t going to get us much snow. Even the biggie required a massive WAA push aloft despite the cold low levels. I’ve had enough with sub 500 thicknesses after this weekend.

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The rubber band needs to eventually snap back to warmer. Enjoy the deep packs. Pack season is about done in SNE anyhow. 

Just give me another 5-6 weeks and I will be all set.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah a week averaging -15 isn’t going to get us much snow. Even the biggie required a massive WAA push aloft despite the cold low levels. I’ve had enough with sub 500 thicknesses after this weekend.

558 instead?