MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Courtesy of 33andrain Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said: Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm. We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some photos from this morning. Great photos Don. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression. Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MarcmmKU said: Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too. We should be fine as long as the PNA isnt deeply negative which it will not be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Common theme all winter 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Took me 5 hours to drive 10 miles home from work. It was such a heavy wet snow It was incredible, 13” in 4 hours (16.5” total) with a stiff 15-20 mph wind - gusts to 30. 9 to 1 type density. Very high impact. Lots of schools were in session that day with kids basically trapped. Wide spread 20-30+ a bit further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too. Things change during the second half of February as wave lengths shorten. Since 1950, 75% of NYC's February 15 or later 10" or above snowstorms had a PNA-. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Things change during the second half of February as wave lengths shorten. Since 1950, 75% of NYC's February 15 or later 10" or above snowstorms had a PNA-. Shorter wavelengths defintely help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Snowman19 waiting for a Metfan post to weenie. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Retreating high pressure. Never good Of course it's a week away so we can hope that the high pressure won't be retreating as much as the current models show. Euro right now is showing a front end of a few inches and then a mix changing to rain. The position of the high pressure will be critical and we have a long way to go to figure that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20°. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982. Don, what would be the one before 1982? Just wondering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024….. The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 23 minutes ago, MANDA said: Don, what would be the one before 1982? Just wondering. Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°. Thanks. I knew January 77 had to be on the list. Late 70’s into early 80’s had some solid cold. Hard to believe it took from 82 until now to add to the list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Common theme all winter Wait til backdoor season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Wait til backdoor season. I pray that you are wrong But I Suspect you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 degrees in my back porch and frozen pipes on second floor bathroom. Might be ripping open a wall tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, steve392 said: 16 degrees in my back porch and frozen pipes on second floor bathroom. Might be ripping open a wall tonight. Frozen main line even with the water dripping last night. Been a fun day. Apparently I've heard there's 1000s like us out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 57 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Wait til backdoor season. I love it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 41 minutes ago, Rjay said: Frozen main line even with the water dripping last night. Been a fun day. Apparently I've heard there's 1000s like us out there. Thankfully our main isn't a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Rock solid. 13" thick off Toms River Yacht club. Walked across to Ocean Gate for pizza. The urge to drive on is rising... If only I didn't have a 4900 lb SUV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°. Thanks. My memory of the 1982 winter was all about the April blizzard. I didn't realize that winter featured a rare cold snap as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Some photos from this morning. Riverbank State Park? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Riverbank State Park? . Near there. Hudson River Greenway near 158th Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The coldest day of Winter 2025-2026 is now going into the books. Tomorrow will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the middle and upper 20s. The temperature will reach or exceed freezing on Tuesday. The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +0.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.397 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.8°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The gfs consistency never ceases to amaze me . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, steve392 said: Thankfully our main isn't a problem. I have water! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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