February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tonight's GFS keeps most of the accumulation just to our south -- a very close call. NAM does bring the accumulating snow across our area Thursday afternoon, but only 1 to 2 inches. CMC has slower timing, bringing it in late at night, and has a wintry mix. Certainly a little something to watch with 3 days to go. 

[winterwx21]

GFS and CMC give us snow early next week. We're long overdue for a March snow event, so hopefully it'll happen. Since we're having a cold/snowy winter this year, I think there's a good chance that we'll break our March snow drought. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS and CMC give us snow early next week. We're long overdue for a March snow event, so hopefully it'll happen. Since we're having a cold/snowy winter this year, I think there's a good chance that we'll break our March snow drought. 

Gefs is enthused next week

[MJO812]

Ukie is also nice for next week

[MJO812]

Gefs includes this week and next week

 

[MJO812]

Ai euro has 1-3 for this week

[Nibor]

Normies are gonna be so sick of winter lol

[MJO812]

Euro likes the clipper and next week 

[MJO812]

Frigid lol

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Nam for clipper 

[MJO812]

3k nam

[North and West]

Gefs includes this week and next week
 

Getting concerned about flood potential in the usual places.


.

[Northof78]

Im assuming all models are south/suppressed for Thu/Fri?

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Getting concerned about flood potential in the usual places.


.

Up to 2-3’ of new snows meeting a warmup and rains is never good…

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Up to 2-3’ of new snows meeting a warmup and rains is never good…

A piece of good news is that the models don’t currently have a heavy 1.50”+ rainstorm in the near future. The best outcome going forward would be a series of weaker lows like the current runs are showing without much total QPF. This way we could see many days with gradual melt with highs into the 40s and the increasing sun angle. Hopefully, a heavy rainstorm holds off until early March after the snowpack has had a chance to melt gradually.

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A piece of good news is that the models don’t currently have a heavy 1.50”+ rainstorm in the near future. The best outcome going forward would be a series of weaker lows like the current runs are showing without much total QPF. This way we could see many days with gradual melt with highs into the 40s and the increasing sun angle. Hopefully, a heavy rainstorm holds off until early March after the snowpack has had a chance to melt gradually.

yeah, I don’t know what flooding rain they’re talking about.

 

Gradual melting with snow chances over next week

[Santa Claus]

i’m pretty bullish on the melting with Fri Sat Sun looking sunny and relatively warm

[SACRUS]

27 / 14  near or sub freezing but bright sunshine should compact and melt some on the southwest facing areas. Mix / wet snow Tue into Wed.   Then 5 days in the 40s and perhaps 50s (Saturday) will take its toll Wed - Sunday.  Back colder to open March work week with the next strom potential looming 3/4 and a period as well of much below 48 hours arctic blast being hinted in the 3/4-3/6 period.  Beyond there much warmer for the period 3/8 - mid month- first 60s - 70s could be in site but thats way into the beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC: 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)
JFK: 62 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -1 (1873)
LGA: 6 (2015)
JFK: 7 (2015)

Historical:

 

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1870: Professor Cleveland Abbe began preparing the Western Union Telegraph Company's Weather Report, a plotted daily weather map issued 6 days a week. The cooperation of the telegraph companies were critical to the survival of our early national weather network. They provided free transmission time and priority handling for weather messages. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1905: The temperature at Valley Head, AL fell to -18°. This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Alabama until January 1966. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1910: Washington state's greatest snowstorm dumped 129 inches of snow on Laconia, WA over 3 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1936: End of longest snow cover in modern history of a 37 days period from January 19th to February 24th in Washington, DC.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1962: Snow, sleet, freezing rain and severe thunderstorms in southern New England occurred. $5 million in property damage resulted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994
Record Cascade snowstorm in Washington State 65 inches in 24 hours at Crystal Mountain sets state record. Stampede Pass at 4,500 feet gets 30 inches giving a total on the ground of 94 inches.
(Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)

1996
Today marked the 54th consecutive day in San Antonio, TX without measurable precipitation, their 2nd longest rain-free period.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000
A late evening F3 tornado cut a 23 mile long path through Pontotoc County, Mississippi, killing 7 people. In spite of the nearest National Weather Service Doppler Radar not working, warnings were in effect for the tornado. Nearly 300 homes were damaged or destroyed. Other F2 tornadoes were reported in Mississippi and several twisters touched down around Little Rock, AR, all spawned by the same system.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: In a house without a basement, a small interior room/closet on the 1st floor often provides the best area for tornado survival. In Greenwood, MS, a F3 tornado destroyed all but the 1st floor bathroom of a 2-story house. A family of 4 survived in that room. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2004: Northern New Mexico: Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. Snow accumulates to 20 inches on the mountains east of Santa Fe; Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches ; 8 inches falls at Los Alamos. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2012: The maximum temperature here today was 81 °F which is the highest temperature since March 18, 2011 when it was 82 °F. The maximum temperature yesterday was 81 °F at the Richmond International Airport which was only one degree from the record maximum temperature for the date. (Records since 1897) This maximum was also only 2 °F from the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of February which was 83 °F recorded on February 11, 1932.(Records since 1897) The high wind gust yesterday was 46 mph at 15:03 hours which was the highest gust since Hurricane Irene on August 27, 2011 when a 52 mph gust was recorded. A great temperature decrease of -28.3 °F since yesterday at 7:10 AM. The total precipitation yesterday was only 0.03 inches and for Feb. 1.98 inches and thunder was heard twice. (West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen Virginia Weather Center)

 

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado. 

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2007: An EF3 tornado struck Dumas, Arkansas, injuring 28. Seven other tornadoes hit southeast Arkansas on this day, but no fatalities.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

[SACRUS]

34 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

i’m pretty bullish on the melting with Fri Sat Sun looking sunny and relatively warm

Even yesterdays 36 degrees mushafied some areas.  

We'll see if the 3/3 storm adds to this

 

[MJO812]

Awful spring incoming 

[Brian5671]

Given the cold shelf waters, it will be a battle this spring to get any nice weather outside of a random day here and there

[Prue11]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the cold shelf waters, it will be a battle this spring to get any nice weather outside of a random day here and there

East winds and 40s with mist for weeks straight 

[Dark Star]

52 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC: 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)
JFK: 62 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -1 (1873)
LGA: 6 (2015)
JFK: 7 (2015)

Historical:

 

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1870: Professor Cleveland Abbe began preparing the Western Union Telegraph Company's Weather Report, a plotted daily weather map issued 6 days a week. The cooperation of the telegraph companies were critical to the survival of our early national weather network. They provided free transmission time and priority handling for weather messages. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1905: The temperature at Valley Head, AL fell to -18°. This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Alabama until January 1966. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1910: Washington state's greatest snowstorm dumped 129 inches of snow on Laconia, WA over 3 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1936: End of longest snow cover in modern history of a 37 days period from January 19th to February 24th in Washington, DC.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1962: Snow, sleet, freezing rain and severe thunderstorms in southern New England occurred. $5 million in property damage resulted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994
Record Cascade snowstorm in Washington State 65 inches in 24 hours at Crystal Mountain sets state record. Stampede Pass at 4,500 feet gets 30 inches giving a total on the ground of 94 inches.
(Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)

1996
Today marked the 54th consecutive day in San Antonio, TX without measurable precipitation, their 2nd longest rain-free period.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000
A late evening F3 tornado cut a 23 mile long path through Pontotoc County, Mississippi, killing 7 people. In spite of the nearest National Weather Service Doppler Radar not working, warnings were in effect for the tornado. Nearly 300 homes were damaged or destroyed. Other F2 tornadoes were reported in Mississippi and several twisters touched down around Little Rock, AR, all spawned by the same system.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: In a house without a basement, a small interior room/closet on the 1st floor often provides the best area for tornado survival. In Greenwood, MS, a F3 tornado destroyed all but the 1st floor bathroom of a 2-story house. A family of 4 survived in that room. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2004: Northern New Mexico: Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. Snow accumulates to 20 inches on the mountains east of Santa Fe; Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches ; 8 inches falls at Los Alamos. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2012: The maximum temperature here today was 81 °F which is the highest temperature since March 18, 2011 when it was 82 °F. The maximum temperature yesterday was 81 °F at the Richmond International Airport which was only one degree from the record maximum temperature for the date. (Records since 1897) This maximum was also only 2 °F from the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of February which was 83 °F recorded on February 11, 1932.(Records since 1897) The high wind gust yesterday was 46 mph at 15:03 hours which was the highest gust since Hurricane Irene on August 27, 2011 when a 52 mph gust was recorded. A great temperature decrease of -28.3 °F since yesterday at 7:10 AM. The total precipitation yesterday was only 0.03 inches and for Feb. 1.98 inches and thunder was heard twice. (West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen Virginia Weather Center)

 

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado. 

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2007: An EF3 tornado struck Dumas, Arkansas, injuring 28. Seven other tornadoes hit southeast Arkansas on this day, but no fatalities.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

I wonder what it would be like to experience the Laconia Washington 3 day storm?

[SACRUS]

Can see the gradient from Balt north and east

 

[JustinRP37]

10 years ago...

[MJO812]

[CentralNJSnowman]

12z GFS says we do it again next Monday

[MJO812]

Just now, CentralNJSnowman said:

12z GFS says we do it again next Monday

Gfs has 8-12 inches next week