February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Euro getting better 

[MANDA]

My location lost all the new overnight snowfall during the day today and an additional little dent out of what existed prior. Should lose a good deal more through the rest of the week.  The huge mounds are losing height VERY VERY slowly. Anything on the level is showing much more noticeable progress.

 

 

[nycsnow]

[RU848789]

I've never seen anything like it. 8 straight runs of the AIFS showing a significant to major+ snowstorm 6+ days out. I feel like we might be watching the meteorological equivalent of Dimaggio's 56-game hitting streak, lol.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro getting better 

Its warm. Which I guess is a risk too. With a weak system nothing to pull the cold air down so we get light rain or white rain

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its warm. Which I guess is a risk too. With a weak system nothing to pull the cold air down so we get light rain or white rain

Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter.

[brooklynwx99]

this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter.

Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest !

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest !

At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter. 

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

Eps improved 

[sussexcountyobs]

What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt 

[nycsnow]

20 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt 

Very true but we track lol hope for the best 

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum

[Irish]

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What did all but one of the phasing storms on models do 5-7 days out do this year? Talk to me Friday if models still show it. Even then take it with a big grain of salt 

See you Friday. But then you'll miss all the ups and downs of tracking.  Beyond getting the storm to hit, the storm tracking is my favorite part!

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum

Yeah, cant imagine someone weenie-ing normal posts. Who would do that?

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Yeah, cant imagine someone weenie-ing normal posts. Who would do that?

Ikr!

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

too little too late for most ski resorts-was in CO a couple weeks ago it was awful and alot of people canceled their trips

Forget the ski season at this point. Now its about water. Glen Canyon can stop functioning this year of things dont pick up

[MJO812]

Weathernext

[sussexcountyobs]

23 minutes ago, Irish said:

See you Friday. But then you'll miss all the ups and downs of tracking.  Beyond getting the storm to hit, the storm tracking is my favorite part!

True. That is the hobby.

[nycsnow]

Steve the clown D and tomer having some meteorological words on x lol

[golfer07840]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary

Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't it like 70 degrees the week after? 

[SACRUS]

Today's splits

 

EWR: 41 / 30* (1)
NYC:  39 / 29 (-2)

[IrishRob17]

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum

it needed to be said, and it's something many of us suspected.

[weatherpruf]

24 minutes ago, golfer07840 said:

Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't it like 70 degrees the week after? 

the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong...

[weatherpruf]

43 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Steve the clown D and tomer having some meteorological words on x lol

tomer?

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Couldn't imagine weenieing this post on a weather forum

its tragic