February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Wrong

Its still nice. Just weaker than 6z.

[Snowguy66]

I guess they haven't seen all of the fantasy storms even a week away that don't materialize.  I am hoping it happens, but I can't get excited this far out.

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is a massive snowstorm as well! Very similar to the ICON

Gets going a little to Late big hit for Long Island and sent respectable for rest of us 

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Gets going a little to Late big hit for Long Island and sent respectable for rest of us 

Still a nice hit. This has a chance with the decaying blocking.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wrong

Big hit south and east

it's very similar to Icon and a massive snowstorm for all, what's wrong with my statement stop the nitpicking at 150 hours out! 

Also much colder than 6z which should have better rates

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wrong

Big hit south and east

that far out you can't take the colorful precip field seriously yet on any model especially OPS use the ensembles also a 991 in the perfect position will deliver here

[TriPol]

22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Why are we even talking about starting a thread for a storm chance a week away? There is nowhere near enough agreement with the models to warrant one. This could easily turn into an apps runner by tomorrow or Wednesday.

It's Monday. Storm moves in on Saturday. We have 24 model run cycles left. Someone should definitely start a thread by Wednesday at the latest.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, TriPol said:

It's Monday. Storm moves in on Saturday. We have 24 model run cycles left. Someone should definitely start a thread by Wednesday at the latest.

its still up in the air so to say exactly when the storm will develop and reach here could be anywhere from 2/21 to 2/24

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

its still up in the air so to say exactly when the storm will develop and reach here could be anywhere from 2/21 to 2/24

If 12z GFS and 12z EURO is on board... I reserve the right to respond. We need a good coastal bomb to close out this winter. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC has a completely different setup! Doesn't develop the storm it focuses mainly on the wave coming from the lakes

[snowman19]

It’s not worth taking any of these model runs seriously until Wednesday and Thursday no matter what they show

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, TriPol said:

If 12z GFS and 12z EURO is on board... I reserve the right to respond. We need a good coastal bomb to close out this winter. 

i think you should make the thread the storm signal is as good as it could be whether it'll be rain or snow is yet to be determined!

[MANDA]

1.3" here overnight from .08" liquid.

M.T.D. precip: .11".  M.T.D. snowfall: 2.0".

Click map to enlarge.

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

CMC has a completely different setup! Doesn't develop the storm it focuses mainly on the wave coming from the lakes

CMC is too far north and west with that storm IMO and running the southern energy out way in front of it - plus it didn't catch on to the northern side dynamics of yesterdays storm till late in the game

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

You better not start a thread 

I think I may have the answer to this whether or not to " start a thread " controversy = maybe Rjay can start the thread and he can title it " It's Not Coming " and we can kill 2 birds with one stone ? 

[TriPol]

19 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think you should make the thread the storm signal is as good as it could be whether it'll be rain or snow is yet to be determined!

We shall see what the 12z model suite has in store for us. Alternatively, I've never seen donsutherland1 start a thread before. Would love to see him start one.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Uncle shows a good sized snowstorm

[Jt17]

Ukie also a nice hit - didn't see anybody mention it.


.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Ukie also a nice hit - didn't see anybody mention it.


.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Uncle shows a good sized snowstorm

Uncle ?

 

[SnoSki14]

This weekend is probably our last shot at another snowstorm. All indices turn unfavorable after this. 

March looks warm, maybe very warm. 

[Monty]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Uncle ?

 

We have renamed the UKmet after uncleweathbee

[Freezing Drizzle]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Historical Storms of note

Thanks for posting the snow map for PD I, February of 1979.  A bit of a "forgotten" storm from that era of scarce, big storms.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro AI shows a nice snowstorm, very similar evolution to the GFS not as robust as ICON but long lasting snowstorm

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This weekend is probably our last shot at another snowstorm. All indices turn unfavorable after this. 

March looks warm, maybe very warm. 

Maybe but always have to watch March

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro AI shows a nice snowstorm, very similar evolution to the GFS not as robust as ICON but long lasting snowstorm

Any images of it

[nycsnow]

Nice jump on euro ai

[WeatherGeek2025]

my question is what's stopping this from running inland?

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my question is what's stopping this from running inland?

We still have some blocking 

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Any images of it