RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 1 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 39 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding. How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. There is some phasing going on. Keep track or dont post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nam north It was very close to a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Rgem much further north but still a miss. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Sun angle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Do you know how to read and interpret a computer model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 NYC will not see an inch out of this storm. That's my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase. No it’s not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Dont care what your opinion is. But dont post bs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No it’s not The phase happens in the ocean. Just need it to phase further west. Its not far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. Dude stop. We don't expect something big and most of us would be perfectly happy with a few inches considering where we were just 24 hours ago. You even just the other day posted the results of every single model run being a "miss" in the other thread, that's clearly not the case right now - maybe acknowledge that before finding yet another way to highlight what's working against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Dude stop. We don't expect something big and most of us would be perfectly happy with a few inches considering where we were just 24 hours ago. You even just the other day posted the results of every single model run being a "miss" in the other thread, that's clearly not the case right now - maybe acknowledge that before finding yet another way to highlight what's working against us. We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night It's certainly possible we may not get much of anything out of this one but chances for something is at least better than 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. Ensembles show us getting a lot more active but until it happens the dryness will continue. I don't even care if it snows again, we just need precip asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. It happens at night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It happens at night lol Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. The trend for over a year now since the drought pattern started has been for the models to show a lot of QPF at range only to drop it significantly as we get closer in time. The overall dryness since September, 2024 has been staggering, we’ve left the 2001-02 drought in the dust, it’s not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.) Let's see what you can do with that wise guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.) Let's see what you can do with that wise guy. 3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, TriPol said: 3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. You win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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