NEG NAO Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 28 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now. this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago AI euro improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78 Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? plus consider the several inches thick Ice Glacier still cemented to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ. lets first get the precip this far north than worry about precip types IMO more amped means more dynamics and upward motion in the atmosphere creating its own cold enough air (dynamic cooling) thats why it shows so much snow further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI euro improved Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 39 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding. How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. There is some phasing going on. Keep track or dont post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam north It was very close to a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Icon improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem much further north but still a miss. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Sun angle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Do you know how to read and interpret a computer model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NYC will not see an inch out of this storm. That's my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase. No it’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 45 minutes ago, TriPol said: Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees. Dont care what your opinion is. But dont post bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No it’s not The phase happens in the ocean. Just need it to phase further west. Its not far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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