February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too.  A miss/scrape is a bad call right now.  

this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick.

Wrong.  If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night.  

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick.

Its February.  Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense?

[MJO812]

AI euro improved

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78

Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its February.  Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense?

plus consider the several inches thick Ice Glacier still cemented to the ground

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.  

lets first get the precip this far north than worry about precip types IMO more amped means more dynamics and upward motion in the atmosphere creating its own cold enough air (dynamic cooling) thats why it shows so much snow further south

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI euro improved

Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though 

trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before

If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent.  However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). 

[RU848789]

Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent.  However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). 

This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 

[Wxbear25]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 

It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is.

Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before

Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase.

[NEG NAO]

39 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is.

Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years

Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall  or even a moderate snowstorm.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 

Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding.

How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts. 

There is some  phasing going on. Keep track or dont post.