February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

 

 

Didn’t Feb 5, 2010 and Feb 9,2010 delivery the goods?

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Pull that storm 300 miles NW and we got it made

 

We missed a KU event. If only this monster took a BM track. Painful miss.

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The trend east never stopped. Even Nova Scotia in danger of missing most of it now.

Yep, ended up the strung out piece of garbage with a kicker behind it we were expecting. Awesome that 4 flakes fell and there's cold dry wind. 

[mob1]

GFS gives us a couple of inches from this 

[jm1220]

Just now, mob1 said:

GFS gives us a couple of inches from this 

Wed clipper still worth watching IMO. It won’t be much but we’ll be close for a 1-3” type refresher. Maybe a little more if it can take in some Atlantic moisture. 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

2 degrees here; winds also up. Looks like we might touch freezing Tuesday; that will feel amazing. 

A high of 32 in the shade will feel great standing out in the sun.  Should get some slow melting as well at least early and mid this coming week.

[NEG NAO]

32 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

We missed a KU event. If only this monster took a BM track. Painful miss.

not painful at all IMO - a KU on top of this foot plus in many places solid ice pack would have been a disaster - think about it.........and temps arctic like

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

GFS gives us a couple of inches from this 

NAM gives us a little light snow from this. Right now nothing else looks as good as GFS, but hopefully some other models will come aboard. Still something to watch for a potential light snow event along with Friday. 

[eduggs]

The Wednesday shortwave has been ticking slightly more favorable across multiple guidance for several runs. The height field has been gaining every so slightly more meridional angle as it crosses south of us. The ULL in Ontario is a shame, but we might we able to trend this to a plowable event for some. Without that, there's nothing distinct on the horizon for a while. And spring is looming out in fantasyland. 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

A high of 32 in the shade will feel great standing out in the sun.  Should get some slow melting as well at least early and mid this coming week.

with "slow" being the keyword a few hours above freezing will melt nothing - only thing now reducing the ice pack is evaporation and a compacting of it a natural process

[Freezing Drizzle]

The brutally cold season of 1976-1977 only yielded some 25 inches in the NYC area. (24.5" in CPK.)
Yes, the snowfalls lasted. lol

Heavy ice formation in the waterways. Area ferry services were suspended. 

Averages by month, Central Park:
November 1976 41.7 F (The coldest November since 1917 surely "primed" the cold waters.)
December 1976 - 29.9 F (Number 9 since records kept.)
January 1977 - 22.1 F (Number 2 since records kept.)
February 1977 - 33.5 F

[nycsnow]

AIGFS continues the parade of storms. Granted they’re rain storms the second week of February not sure I buy that. But definitely a strong signal for that week 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

AIGFS continues the parade of storms. Granted they’re rain storms the second week of February not sure I buy that. But definitely a strong signal for that week 

Rain storms ??

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

The brutally cold season of 1976-1977 only yielded some 25 inches in the NYC area. (24.5" in CPK.)
Yes, the snowfalls lasted. lol

Heavy ice formation in the waterways. Area ferry services were suspended. 

Averages by month:
November 1976 41.7 F (The coldest November since 1917 "primed" the cold waters.)
December 1976 - 29.9 F
January 1977 - 22.1 F
February 1977 - 33.5 F

That 22.1 in January is incomprehensible these days.  Was in grade school and remember the walks to and from school that month!  

[Prue11]

Nobody wants cold unless it snows lol

[Picard]

UP to 13 with a cold wind howling.  Low was 2.
Irregardless of the snow we may or may not get, this winter will make me apprciate spring.

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM gives us a little light snow from this. Right now nothing else looks as good as GFS, but hopefully some other models will come aboard. Still something to watch for a potential light snow event along with Friday. 

06z Euro was reasonably near the idea.  This one may have a chance.  RGEM though which has been really good recently has nothing,  RRFS is a relative blizzard lol.  Its becoming clear the RRFS is more NAM bad post 48 than it is RGEM good post 48.  Inside 24 though I will say the RRFS is very useful and has been pretty good.  Its just to me worse than the NAM in the 30-60 window.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Rain storms ??

Both the GFSAI and ECMWF-AIFS bring some rain beginning Feb 10. It's a persistent signal. No telling if it fades and/or is transient. In a few days we'll have a better idea if the cold will linger through that period.

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

with "slow" being the keyword a few hours above freezing will melt nothing - only thing now reducing the ice pack is evaporation and a compacting of it a natural process

I think snow in south facing locations with a temperature of 32 and sun will help get things moving.  Especially out this way where it is not quite as much of a glacier as places further east and south that had hours of sleet last weekend.  Still just a slow melt though.  At least streets that are struggling to get down to pavement in spots will get a boost.  Haven't seen a large snow event with temperatures this cold lingering for a week plus in a long time.

[SnoSki14]

GFS delivering some brutal wind chills next weekend. Like -20 and below type stuff 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Both the GFSAI and ECMWF-AIFS bring some rain beginning Feb 10. It's a persistent signal. No telling if it fades and/or is transient. In a few days we'll have a better idea if the cold will linger through that period.

its still 9 days out - that's all you need to know - not within forecasting anything range

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS delivering some brutal wind chills next weekend. Like -20 and below type stuff 

We just had that lol

[SnoSki14]

Just now, qg_omega said:

We just had that lol

Definitely not. It was mainly -5. Some places registered colder but no wind 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS delivering some brutal wind chills next weekend. Like -20 and below type stuff 

With the forecasted winds next weekend it’s going to be hard to get down to where we were Friday night/Saturday morning on the coast. My area was anywhere from 0 to -3 (central suffolk)

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Didn’t Feb 5, 2010 and Feb 9,2010 delivery the goods?

bottom half of nj only....top half got little to nothing. think southern half got hit with both. they missed out on 2/26. 

[nycsnow]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Rain storms ??

Yes verbatim AIGFS and ec aifs would be rain storms. I’m more concerned with a storm signal showing can narrow down the rest next week 

[nycsnow]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Both the GFSAI and ECMWF-AIFS bring some rain beginning Feb 10. It's a persistent signal. No telling if it fades and/or is transient. In a few days we'll have a better idea if the cold will linger through that period.

Euro was also a coastal storm yesterday which would’ve been snow… models definitely like that week

[MANDA]

Widespread snow cover.  Most of that snow mid and upstate SC/NC and GA the result of the upper low bellying under them.  Classic.  The snows over the eastern Carolina's more a result of the coastal low moving e.n.e. out to sea that never got captured by the upper low. Deep storm for sure but hauling ass out to sea.

[MANDA]

Overnight low of 0.3.  Corrected.  Long story.

January precipitation: 2.76".  Another month on the drier side of the ledger.

January snowfall: 21.7".

Snowfall season to date: 34.8".

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

not painful at all IMO - a KU on top of this foot plus in many places solid ice pack would have been a disaster - think about it.........and temps arctic like

That's a low threshold for disaster