It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[Prue11]

51 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We picked up a little over 4.5" here.  Montauk got 13" and cape cod got destroyed.

A couple of weeks later we had a 10" snowfall.

do you member the exact date of this storm? I’d like to research it 

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

do you member the exact date of this storm? I’d like to research it 

February 25, 1999

Here's a start:

 

https://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

Also: 

https://www.northshorewx.com/lisnowfallpatterns.html

[RU848789]

Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.  

 

 

[psv88]

The NBM should never be used. It sucks 

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We picked up a little over 4.5" here.  Montauk got 13" and cape cod got destroyed.

A couple of weeks later we had a 10" snowfall.

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come.  Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way  more cautious these days about not doing that.  Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come.  Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way  more cautious these days about not doing that.  Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger. 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger. 

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

One of the best "Busts" of all time

[Wannabehippie]

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

Until that storm, I always used to say, just from experience, to never get excited about rain turning to "wraparound" snow.  (Not just wraparound snow, which happens, but wraparound snow which started as rain.)  I'd seen it predicted a bunch of times and never saw it materialize beyond a coating at most.  But since this storm, I have to temper whatever I say with 'except Christmas 2002.'  I've never seen a storm which pasted everything white with snow.  Not just stop signs, but entire fences top to bottom.  Just a really unique storm.

[RCNYILWX]

Chucking them deep : Jan 24-25, 2000 redux, the real ones know.

I think I was on Tristate weather forum or whatever it was called at the time. That was my sophomore year at Bronx Science.

Still crazy to think that a storm that was supposed to be a whiff tracked so close to the coast that we changed to sleet in the city and then dryslotted.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[jm1220]

Looking like Raleigh/Durham might get split screwed. In a way it’s better that we were doomed 2-3 days ago, rather that than nowcast screwed. This storm can eff right off. 

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like Raleigh/Durham might get split screwed. In a way it’s better that we were doomed 2-3 days ago, rather that than nowcast screwed. This storm can eff right off. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

 Waiting for the "radar is verifying north of the models" posts.  Always a crowd pleaser.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

14 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 Waiting for the "radar is verifying north of the models" posts.  Always a crowd pleaser.

You know i had to laugh at that,although there is precip where there shouldn't be. Lower Cloud deck should be moving in soon off the ocean.

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 Waiting for the "radar is verifying north of the models" posts.  Always a crowd pleaser.

I’ve been watching. 

[jm1220]

20 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like Raleigh/Durham might get split screwed. In a way it’s better that we were doomed 2-3 days ago, rather that than nowcast screwed. This storm can eff right off. 

Yep, Raleigh and Fayetteville totally split screwed. Flurries there pretty much while Charlotte might walk away with a foot. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

The radar looks like it’s coming

 

the fact that it’s not coming sucks 

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, Raleigh and Fayetteville totally split screwed. Flurries there pretty much while Charlotte might walk away with a foot. 

Yeah kinda crazy split. My parents in sc still waiting for it to start. Hrrr and nam give them 6+

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Myrtle Beach 23 right now and moderate snow.  In the last 100 years you could probably count on one hand the number of times they've had temps in low 20's with moderate snow falling.

[WestBabylonWeather]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Myrtle Beach 23 right now and moderate snow.  In the last 100 years you could probably count on one hand the number of times they've had temps in low 20's with moderate snow falling.

Yup. Unheard of down there. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I just FaceTimed with my kid,,,,,hes outside of Charlotte and he was running around with the dog,,,,,8 1/2 inches of snow and still, coming down ,,,,,,that city will be shutdown for a week

 

[Stormlover74]

53 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Myrtle Beach 23 right now and moderate snow.  In the last 100 years you could probably count on one hand the number of times they've had temps in low 20's with moderate snow falling.

Parents are 20 minutes from there. Have a couple inches already 

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Parents are 20 minutes from there. Have a couple inches already 

Nice.  It looks like a standard snow pic until you realize that's a palm tree on the left! If you could have them take one with a gator in the shot too that would be perfect.

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Nice.  It looks like a standard snow pic until you realize that's a palm tree on the left! If you could have them take one with a gator in the shot too that would be perfect.

Ha yeah I just noticed that

[Stormlover74]

Kinda cool watching heavy bands move in off the ocean. Could've been us up here. Oh well

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Kinda cool watching heavy bands move in off the ocean. Could've been us up here. Oh well

Yep. Can't be winter anymore without a southern coastal city that averages maybe 2-3" a year get 12" as we get cold dry wind and some clouds. 

[NorthShoreWx]

It's here.

Well, sort of.  12⁰ S-

[jerseyshorewxguy]

it's a flizzard in coastal Monmouth County New Jersey. This would've been a big one. The ocean is angry.


.

[Freezing Drizzle]

Mostly over for them.