jm1220 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Lean left, left! It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go. I want one more biggy, after that im done with the snow lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Lean left, left!. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: I want one more biggy, after that im done with the snow lol This rhetoric is disappointing. Years of bad winters has softened the NYC weenie as if left to bloat in the stagnant water of a Nathan’s street cart. We can do better. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Nibor said: This rhetoric is disappointing. Years of bad winters has softened the NYC weenie as if left to bloat in the stagnant water of a Nathan’s street cart. We can do better. It’s all fun and games till you throw your back and hammies out. Im sore as hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: It’s all fun and games till you throw your back and hammies out. Im sore as hell. The suffering is half the fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Euro AI hates the storm is more ots can't post map says file would exceed size allowed Not a good sign imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 why do I have this feeling that the precipitation shield isn't wide enough to the northwest of the Low pressure. A system that deep usually has a way wider precipitation shield and that usually doesn't get modeled right until about 2-3 days away from the actual event! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Euro AI hates the storm is more ots can't post map says file would exceed size allowed that's it i've seen enough, I'm out good luck guys 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Still plenty of time. But need something to trend positive by tomorrow morning IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 If euro Ai is a miss, euro will follow suite 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: why do I have this feeling that the precipitation shield isn't wide enough to the northwest of the Low pressure. A system that deep usually has a way wider precipitation shield and that usually doesn't get modeled right until about 2-3 days away from the actual event! Because you're a big weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: The suffering is half the fun! And oh man do we suffer in this hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: that's it i've seen enough, I'm out good luck guys This is for the best. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Common theme on the 12z cycle: The GFS and GGEM have brought the precipitation farther north and west. It's too soon to write off the storm for the NYC area and especially Long Island. Details still can't be resolved reliably this far out. Do you think we get a western movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: Do you think we get a western movement? Let's see where the synoptic details are tomorrow. At 500 mb, there remain some important differences among the guidance. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Not sure why we are locking in a hit or a miss on Tuesday. Last storm's solutions were far from locked down this far out. Wednesday Eve/Thursday morning is when I'll be reasonably assured that a solution is nearly there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Feb 1st storm still a threat but as of now is out to sea, Feb 5th-6th currently more of a threat. This could all change. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 ever since the 2010 after christmas blizzard i learned nothing is set in stone this far out as that storm was modeled to be a miss for nyc.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It’s mainly concerning because of how well the Euro AIFS performs in this range. If it was any other model, there would be much less concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: If euro Ai is a miss, euro will follow suite Not how it works 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: ever since the 2010 after christmas blizzard i learned nothing is set in stone this far out as that storm was modeled to be a miss for nyc.. Especially big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not how it works But it did look at the end results. Not saying it cant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z euro looks good for Bermuda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not how it works This winter yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 12z euro looks good for Bermuda And Nova Scotia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 honestly, if it were better than throwing a dart, they'd just update the model to account for any consistent bias in the model. ergo, there isn't that much that can be said for sure, other than that the models will move around. right now for the worse, but maybe tomorrow for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Let's see where the synoptic details are tomorrow. At 500 mb, there remain some important differences among the guidance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That kicker is stronger and in a terrible spot. To have any chance it needs be North of the border on Sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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