Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’ll give it until tonight and one more tick it’stoast. But guidance sucked today.

Everything else came west. Why use GFS?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything else came west. Why use GFS?

What came west?

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What came west?

lol…I didn’t look but “everything” is apparently the ICON.  What we’ve come to…..

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What came west?

Icon Nam Icon EPS GEFS soon 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein and sun angle to slowly melt pack now 

Thought most of you down there hate snowpack and just in for the individual storms? Christ make up your minds one way or the other lol

[ineedsnow]

GEFS looking better early on

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Thought most of you down there hate snowpack and just in for the individual storms? Christ make up your minds one way or the other lol

Yea right it's all a bunch of baloney. Who would want to look at brown sticks and grass at 10⁰

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Save a pony, they will say.

After trashing it and saying “ it isn’t what it used to be”

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

After trashing it and saying “ it isn’t what it used to be”

TBLIZZ SAVE A HORSE 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea right it's all a bunch of baloney. Who would want to look at brown sticks and grass at 10⁰

I lol at it, The other cope mechanism is if we’re gonna have bare ground, Then it should be a lot warmer.

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thought most of you down there hate snowpack and just in for the individual storms? Christ make up your minds one way or the other lol

No way, I have a pack fetish 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thought most of you down there hate snowpack and just in for the individual storms? Christ make up your minds one way or the other lol

I don’t hate it, if I have it I enjoy it. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I lol at it, The other cope mechanism is if we’re gonna have bare ground, Then it should be a lot warmer.

This guy talking melting lol

[dryslot]

This snow is only going to sublimate slowly and is not leaving anytime soon, Sun angle is marginal.

[CoastalWx]

Steinangle

[ineedsnow]

Sun angle getting towards early August now you will feel it a bit when you get in your car.. Just like in August it starts to feel a bit cooler.. im just glad im out of the dreaded valley now it makes summers feel so much better 

[CTWeatherFreak]

Even with a discernable negative tilt, this thing cant get out of dodge fast enough.  Weirdo storm.

 

[JACKASS]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sun angle getting towards early August now you will feel it a bit when you get in your car.. Just like in August it starts to feel a bit cooler.. im just glad im out of the dreaded valley now it makes summers feel so much better 

August??

And Early August???

[Typhoon Tip]

welp ... that's taking an anomalous track relative to the larger scale synoptic structure(s) ... but, sometimes weird shit happens.   

I think the background speed of the flow is a problem.  

It gets harder to excuse the increasing numbers of these observed idiosyncratic behaviors as just 'bad luck' - luck is really when you don't why something is happening but it does, unexpectedly.  I no longer sense this as occurring for no detectable reason, nor see this as unexpected.  I keep seeing these events in the late mid and extended range and watching them torpedo as they come into shorter terms. 

I also suspect this is why we see this attenuation of event profiles during that same relay..it's because organized structures at smaller scales are getting speed stressed. 

It's no death knell.   At some point something will subsume phase, but of all event types there are, subsumers being being the most time-dependent fragile ... there's a reason why we haven't seen subsume types.  The odds of those types succeeding has gone down.  

[larvay]

1 minute ago, JACKASS said:

August??

And Early August???

November, August, same diff.

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Sun angle getting towards early August now you will feel it a bit when you get in your car.. Just like in August it starts to feel a bit cooler.. im just glad im out of the dreaded valley now it makes summers feel so much better 

More like mid-November... 

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This snow is only going to sublimate slowly and is not leaving anytime soon, Sun angle is marginal.

It’s marginal but ngl… I took notice of the extra brightness today. Maybe it’s because it’s been awhile since I saw full sun, but the midday shadows are starting to hit different.

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott's just tuggin' on minion chode hairs with that. 

We're in the solar minimum for another 2 weeks.   The sharding back of snow banks will begin in earnest after the 8th ..10th.   

Having said that, there was day light at 5:30 pm today ...I noticed this as I was leaving the gym.  That was pitch dark just last week at that same time.  We're on the slope - can't be denied.  I also thought the sun coming through the S windows felt warmer on the face.  It's just a fact of celestial mechanics and life. 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, larvay said:

November, August, same diff.

Hey man sup? Skiing ?

[JACKASS]

8 minutes ago, larvay said:

November, August, same diff.

 

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

More like mid-November... 

I kinda get what he's saying about the start of changing of seasons, but the sun angle threw that out the window.

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I put phone down for 20 minutes , logged back on , saw all the posts and knew the NAM was good . This place is freaking classic 

yup I always know good runs happen by the amount of new posts 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

yup I always know good runs happen by the amount of new posts 

There’s a tremendous amount of hand wringing from some camps due to the op GFS . If you toss that .. things looking good for accumulating snow at worst 

[larvay]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey man sup? Skiing ?

SR, yes. Incidentally, I noticed that the car was indeed kinda warm when I got back to it. Oh, and the skiing was awesome. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

yup I always know good runs happen by the amount of new posts 

Thats why I refresh at 3am.. usually know by the post.. if there's a bunch I look at models first if not I read the disappointment 

[Roger Smith]

I believe the lowest average temperature in the northeast U.S. is around Feb 5th long-term. That is where the temperature cycle begins to reverse. Of course the solar angle cycle reverses shortly after the winter solstice in late December but as people are saying there is little perceptible influence on potential melt factor until mid-Feb.

Late Feb rises faster than Jan declines which is why Jan averages are a bit lower than Feb averages for most locations (Feb means can be lowest for locations with more maritime influence).