Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hard to go against that look 

Mentioned 1996 yesterday…that was progged south and never was supposed to get up here either.  We know how that worked out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting.  That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too.  It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing...

We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make for a good Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot.

He's like a social NMB model...  just reading the room and figuring for a consensus. 

[csnavywx]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

with that too. The vortmax may dig for oil just the same, but if we can tick everything a little west we can swing the system closer our way as it gains latitude. I’d like to see

 

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards.

I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough should dictate this stuff ending up more W -  that completes the total L/W structure.  These erstwhile solutions appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. 

That did not change over night.    Stubborn.

Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time   , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance.   That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies.  Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do.

That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons.  It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms.  

One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time.  The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely.  I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations.

High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers     yeah. 

The biggest source of spread has been the placement, tilt and shape of the primary max +PV/advection lobe as it comes into the upper Midwest. Most earlier solutions were emphasizing the middle of the axis to develop the primary PV later on, but generally this process favors the far end of the trough axis. Not really shocking to see it trend that way. I have my feelings about the NAM too, but given the sensitivity of the setup, models are still almost certainly still underdispersed wrt the true spread of the probability space, so seeing some notable dprog/dt on that feature is a good thing and shouldn't be tossed out of hand, at the very least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting.  That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too.  It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing...

We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make a Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot.

He's like a social NMB model...  just reading the room and figuring for a consensus. 

Very insightful, and dead-on.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting.  That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too.  It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing...

We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make for a good Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot.

He's like a social NMB model...  just reading the room and figuring for a consensus. 

I’m just retaliating his confused emojis lol

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

 

The biggest source of spread has been the placement, tilt and shape of the primary max +PV/advection lobe as it comes into the upper Midwest. Most earlier solutions were emphasizing the middle of the axis to develop the primary PV later on, but generally this process favors the far end of the trough axis. Not really shocking to see it trend that way. I have my feelings about the NAM too, but given the sensitivity of the setup, models are still almost certainly still underdispersed wrt the true spread of the probability space, so seeing some notable dprog/dt on that feature is a good thing and shouldn't be tossed out of hand, at the very least.

Thanks man

[msg112469]

trueWeather posted this on Facebook. I do realize that every storm is different, but given the potential track that they are depicting it seems as though if the storm were to take this track the QPF would be further inland. No?

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can tell you how I would cope if this ever missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) is a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.

They dealt with much bigger average depth and piles back in 2014-15 or is there more construction now over there?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, msg112469 said:

trueWeather posted this on Facebook. I do realize that every storm is different, but given the potential track that they are depicting it seems as though if the storm were to take this track the QPF would be further inland. No?

That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

trueWeather posted this on Facebook. I do realize that every storm is different, but given the potential track that they are depicting it seems as though if the storm were to take this track the QPF would be further inland. No?

the mean track is much further east

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast. 

They put the track through the center of max snowfall. lol

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast. 

Using snow maps to indicate storm track or trends in anything is just lol

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They put the track through the center of max snowfall. lol

maybe they used the wrong product to communicate what they meant

 

Or they just aren't very bright.

Let's go with the latter 

[MVOyster]

Sunday night Cape Cod Bay 16' waves NE at 10 seconds ... that's some S Shore damage

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast. 

Yeah but they’re certified weather experts. 

[dryslot]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I noticed a subtle trend with that too. The vortmax may dig for oil just the same, but if we can tick everything a little west we can swing the system closer our way as it gains latitude. I’d like to see some of the late suppression over New England back off a bit late week to help the heights recover over the weekend. 

I had made mention i think yesterday of something similar to this, If we could start the process a bit further west even if it digs we could get the slp to start west before it starts to gain latitude.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah…i mean I’d love for that low to track from interior NC to inside the BM, lol…but that’s not happening in this setup. 

[CoastalWx]

Nam has higher heights over us, but the PV lobe is a bit east which is the opposite of what you would want.

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah…i mean I’d love for that low to track from interior NC to inside the BM, lol…but that’s not happening in this setup. 

So that's 100 percent impossible? So best we could hope for back here is a few inches but more likely a coating to an inch/ mood snow or just a cold winter day with lead grey overcast.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

So that's 100 percent impossible? So best we could hope for back here is a few inches but more likely a coating to an inch/ mood snow or just a cold winter day with lead grey overcast.

No the storm could still track closer but it’s not going to be via that route. It would likely be pulled almost due north on a closer track…we could track it from east of HSE up near the BM and that would probably spread decent snows back to the valley. 

[dryslot]

No bueno on the nam but its out of range att.

[weatherwiz]

I think I need somewhere around 75" to hit 100 so I am truly hoping this can be something that produces 18-24" and then we can get a few more 18-24" in February and maybe a 12-18 in March 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

They dealt with much bigger average depth and piles back in 2014-15 or is there more construction now over there?

I wasn't there then, but I imagine it was worse. Regardless, it sucks now.

[CoastalWx]

Actually that might work extrapolating out. But, NAM.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup, the 12z NAM is back to a more E solution with the initial diving N/stream.   That's not cutting it up right.   The 06z had more promise ...as discussed, also a better fit for where this should all be happening in the first place... , but this 12z just panicked and erased the right answer on the test, and went instead with the other solution...

 

[Cyclone-68]

One thing for sure…We haven’t had a winter this cold in several years. And I didn’t miss it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No the storm could still track closer but it’s not going to be via that route. It would likely be pulled almost due north on a closer track…we could track it from east of HSE up near the BM and that would probably spread decent snows back to the valley. 

That route is fine for eastern areas, at least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No bueno on the nam but its out of range att.

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually that might work extrapolating out. But, NAM.

 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup, the 12z NAM is back to a more E solution with the initial diving N/stream.   That's not cutting it up right.   The 06z had more promise ...as discussed, also a better fit for where this should all be happening in the first place... , but this 12z just panicked and erased the right answer on the test, and went instead with the other solution...

2-1.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

2-1.

Looked like it was going to be a bit east to me but i'm not going to try to extrapolate the hr 84 Nam.

[Typhoon Tip]

Edit NAM:  altho - this didn't end up bad looking at 84 hours. It's still a little west of the others, which is sensible. Extrapolating this...  I cold see two things possibly happening ...

1, the voriticity shrapnel fanning off GA is likely convective explosion ( I discussed that erstwhile missing component to these global model solutions to date, last night - ).  That would release latent heat to the total wave space, jacking the Atl perenial height wall which counter offers resistance to an E track.   That's theoretical but does factor so ... pretty proven. 

2, that becomes overly aggressive, and a low is biased/stretched toward said convection... starving the low that would otherwise be triggered closer to synoptic q-g forcing associated with that gdz hole in the sky approaching the coast.