Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Prismshine Productions]

Iconic is east

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

IGONE has been east, Tossed

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The NAM is a huge incremental step more favorable for cyclogenic development along the Eastern seaboard bclinic region as it’s begun the rotation of the trough axis.  
Ending frames of the previous model cycle were less rotated

I looked at it and your Albany musing came to mind.

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

IGONE has been east, Tossed

ICON keeps the 500 closed low north of the Tidewater, rather than over Savannah.  A rather radical change, I would think.

Edit:  Not a huge change over itself, but far from the look of every other model.

 

[Wxbear25]

To tell you the God's honest truth, I like the positioning of the ULL on the ICON alot more than the other models, if you want a major east coast snowstorm thats not a decaying shell by the time it reaches our latitude

The issue is that it really focuses the cyclogenesis along the leading edge of that energy diving in from the west which clears its influence just enough to turn north too late... at 500mb it looked like it almost wanted to fujiwara it back to the west, but it escaped east at the last second.

Push that ULL  75-100 miles west, I'd wager its a big-time hit.

The evolution of how it played out seemed odd, though, so we'll see

[Typhoon Tip]

ICON was much different in the 500 mb evolution comparing the 18 Z

The run overall is a huge improvement; if it wasn’t for the fact that it was ejecting the phase before it could actually complete the fusion then that would’ve been a bomb much farther west than 120 hours

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

ICON keeps the 500 closed low north of the Tidewater, rather than over Savannah.  A rather radical change, I would think.

Edit:  Not a huge change over itself, but far from the look of every other model.

 

Don't even know why i got even this in depth, But it was quite a bit west of the 18z run that was near Bermuda at the surface...........lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

To tell you the God's honest truth, I like the positioning of the ULL on the ICON alot more than the other models, if you want a major east coast snowstorm thats not a decaying shell by the time it reaches our latitude

The issue is that it really focuses the cyclogenesis along the leading edge of that energy diving in from the west which clears its influence just enough to turn north too late... at 500mb it looked like it almost wanted to fujiwara it back to the west, but it escaped east at the last second.

Push that ULL  75-100 miles west, I'd wager its a big-time hit.

The evolution of how it played out seemed odd, though, so we'll see

I was about to say that and I think we see other guidance trend in that direction with the ULL....it's coming N.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IDK if anyone read my blog post from yesterday, but I laid out the reasons why I think that will take place....aside from the fact that the depth of this thing is exotically anomalous as is, which is tacit.

[Snowcrazed71]

Blocking seems to have gotten better on the Euro at 18z. Trending in the right direction

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was about to say that and I think we see other guidance trend in that direction with the ULL....it's coming N.

agree

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM has been pretty money this winter at 84, generally too amped overall as has always been the case but I'd usually take it 9 out of 10 over the NAM at 84.

[Prismshine Productions]

Where is ineedensembles with the Iconic ENS

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[JKEisMan]

9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Where is ineedensembles with the Iconic ENS

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Big shift west from 12z, brings half inch qpf to NY state border

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM has been pretty money this winter at 84, generally too amped overall as has always been the case but I'd usually take it 9 out of 10 over the NAM at 84.

Agree. 

[Wxbear25]

Through hr 93 on the GFS, I like the look of the 500mb charts a little more than 18z, but by the lack of activity im wondering if that transferred to improvement at the surface lol

[JKEisMan]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

Through hr 93 on the GFS, I like the look of the 500mb charts a little more than 18z, but by the lack of activity im wondering if that transferred to improvement at the surface lol

Looks like it’s gonna ride up the coast further west

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like the stall won’t be as far south this run…good sign imo.

[dryslot]

0z GFS looks to be west of 18z at the surface.

[MJO812]

Nice storm 

[MuddyWx]

what a storm for NC/VA

[brooklynwx99]

nice trend with the jet streak over ME

[dryslot]

Yup, Its an improvement from 18z

[JKEisMan]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

what a storm for NC/VA

We know where that will end up

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like the stall won’t be as far south this run…good sign imo.

 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice trend with the jet streak over ME

And the surface trend. Do you see what I see...keep it coming

[MuddyWx]

fun to look at, don't yell at me 

[H2Otown_WX]

Perilously close to full nudity on the GFS. Just need the capture to happen a bit farther north. BOS with another 20 burger (assuming they got one this past storm?)

[Wxbear25]

Subtle, but important changes to the heights and vorticity downstream from the ULL on the 00z vs the 18z... The whole thing just seems more tightly wound-up this run, as more of the southern stream energy kind of rotates around to the north of the ULL instead of a more broad circulation.

Give me that depiction of the ULL at the latitude the Icon has it for $2,000, Ken

[WxWatcher007]

Legit blizzard for the cape. 

[dryslot]

Talk about a sharp cutoff to the precip field to the west