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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm


lilj4425
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1 hour ago, Divine said:

have you ever been to Fayetteville? Its a dirty military base town that unless you are in the military or work around the military its a no-go zone.

Their outer loop I-295 was just completed so there’s that. 

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The RAP dry slot can be seen here. Im not sure I would really buy into that not being moist enough for snow growth. Not sure why there’s that tiny dry pocket either. Maybe a Met could explain better than me. I think the HRRR likely has something similar going on. 

IMG_0676.gif

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Here's how I would expect this to play out, first an interval of light to moderate snow mostly inland NC-SC-ne GA as the 500 mb low begins to deepen over GA, then an interval of heavy bands of snow along the Carolina coasts from roughly New Bern to Savannah, possibly two parallel bands with local snow maxima of 12-18 inches. Ongoing lighter snow further inland brings totals to about 6 inches. Southeast VA and northeast NC have more uncertainty, they could have an interval of blizzard like heavy snow, or the coastal may pull away too far south and too fast to give them more than 3-5 inches. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s during this snow, a few bands in eastern GA with slightly higher temps could see hail mixed with snow. Looks increasingly likely that some local bands of 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow could fall in n/c FL also. There are a lot of small to medium sized lakes there to enhance shower clouds, and temperatures by late Saturday will be below freezing as far south as Tampa to Space Center and low to mid 40s in s FL. Crazy man!

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11 minutes ago, ForsythWx said:

The “blank canvas” we‘re still operating with going into this snowstorm in Winston-Salem. May be hard to measure! IMG_4718.thumb.jpeg.09752f378e1b293e69f18935e85e59fc.jpeg

Put a piece of wood or cardboard down somewhere (if you really care about getting a perfect measurement) 

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This is the RAP sounding for RDU when it’s showing the dry slot over the area. RH in the dendritic growth zone is 88%. Should be big dendrites as well. Omega is a little low but should be sufficient for snow. I think this is why the dry slots are over modeled. 

IMG_0677.png

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16 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

This is the RAP sounding for RDU when it’s showing the dry slot over the area. RH in the dendritic growth zone is 88%. Should be big dendrites as well. Omega is a little low but should be sufficient for snow. I think this is why the dry slots are over modeled. 

IMG_0677.png

I appreciate your knowledge and I hope you’re right. I only understood the last sentence. lol 

share this with the mets. lol 

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